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رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.5935 continue with another recovery today. More corrective trading could be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 1.6140 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Prior break of 1.5976 support suggests that rise from 1.5343 has completed at 1.6400 already. Below 1.5935 will target a test on medium term trend line support (now at 1.5806). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6140 will turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 0.9139 minor support intact, USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8921 could still continue to correct fall from 0.9774. Such rebound might target 55 days EMA (now at 0.9345) and above. On the downside, below 0.9139 minor support will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CAD dips further to as low as 0.9685 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9666 support. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds. In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY rally extends further to as high as 83.18 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. On the downside, below 82.36 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish. In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110330b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/USD recovers further to as high as 1.4188 so far today but is still limited below 1.4247 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidative trading could still be seen. Below 1.4020 will bring another fall. But outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD recovers further to as high as 1.6149 so far today and the break of 1.6140 minor resistance dampens the immediate bearish view. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for further rebound. But after all, break of 1.6400 high is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain neutral and we'd expect more consolidative trading. On the downside below 1.5935 will bring deeper fall towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.5810). In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF dips sharply today but is still supported above 0.9139 minor support. Recovery from 0.8921 could still extend higher to 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above. Nevertheless, break of 0.9139 will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 1.0203 support intact, further rise is still expected in AUD/USD, towards upper channel resistance at 1.0392 next. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed, possibly with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring pull back. In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds. In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 83.20 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidation might be seen first but break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next. In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Break of 132.96 resistance suggests that rebound from 122.40 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 130.17 will turn bias back to the downside for a test on 122.40 low instead. In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 116.18 minor support intact. Current rise should now extend to 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 first. Break will affirm the bullish reversal case and target 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 will further affirm this case and target 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 0.8653 support intact, EUR/GBP's rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8835 will target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back. In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF continues to lose some upside momentum but after all, with 1.2887 minor support intact, rebound from 1.2432 is expected to continue higher through 1.3038 resistance. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and break of 1.3038 should target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2887 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Mid-Day Outlook
EUR/USD jumps to as high as 1.4231 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.4247 resistance and thus, intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's sharp reversal after hitting 1.6140 minor resistance revives the original bearish view that fall from 1.6400 is not over. Break of 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5811). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's break of 0.9139 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 could have finished. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 0.8921 first. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 83.20 temporary top. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next. In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110331b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/USD faces some resistance ahead of 1.4247 and retreats and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8921 might have finished at 0.9273 already and another fall is mildly in favor to retest 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD loses some upside momentum as seen in mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But with 1.0203 minor support intact, stronger rise is still in favor towards upper channel resistance at 1.0396. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back. In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds. In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY's rally resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 83.73 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 84.49 key resistance next. Break will target next medium term support turned resistance at 84.81. On the downside, below 82.56 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/JPY's rise extends further to as high as 134.29 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 132.45 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will now remain cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds. In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/JPY's rises further to as high as 118.65 so far today and met mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, below 116.72 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. The break of 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case and further rise should be seen towards 39.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
While upside momentum in EUR/GBP is a bit unconvincing, there is no sign of topping yet and further rise is still expected towards 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral again. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back. In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF's rally extends further to as high as 1.3056 and breaks mentioned 1.3038 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and should now target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2931 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Mid-Day Outlook
USD/JPY's rally extends further in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. Break will indicate medium term reversal and should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. On the downside, below 83.19 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 80.50 support and bring another rise. In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 1.4247 would extend further. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's break of 0.9273 resistant indicates that rebound from 0.8921 has resumed and intraday bias is back to the upside for 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above. On the downside, below 0.9126 support will suggest that rebound from 0.8921 has completed and will flip bias back to the downside for 0.8921 low and below. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110401b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD was bounded in sideway consolidation between 1.4020 and 1.4247 last week. Late rally on Friday argues that recent up trend is possibly ready to resume this week. Break of 1.4247 will confirm and target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate that deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead. In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead. In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD was bounded in sideway trading above 1.5935 last week. Current development suggests that consolidation from 1.5935 is still in progress and would likely extend further. Above 1.6149 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and possibly above. However, in such case, we'd expect strong resistance near term 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5821). In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's choppy recovery from 0.8921 extended further to as high as 0.9339 last week and touched 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out as long as 0.9126 minor support stronger resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9573) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD extended recent up trend and reached new record high of 1.0394 last week. AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Nevertheless, there is no confirmation of topping as long as 1.0203 support holds. Further rise could be seen to 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422 next. On the downside, though ,below 1.0203 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.0079). In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. and current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CAD dropped to as low as 0.9625 last week and the strong break of 0.9666 support confirms medium term downtrend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9685 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY rose further to as high as 84.71 last week and the break of 84.49 key resistance suggests that a medium term bottom is at least in place at 76.40. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the bullish case and target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption. In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish. In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet). We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w3.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w4.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF jumped to as high as 1.3169 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1.3023 resistance first. Note that rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and would target 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3445). On the downside, below 1.3037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, another rise would remain mildly in favor. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w3.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w4.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/GBP continued to climb to as high as 0.8852 last week. Upside momentum was a bit unconvincing. But still, initial bias remains on the upside this week with 0.8752 minor support intact. Current rise should target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back. In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back. In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w3.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110402w4.gif |
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