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رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's rise from 1.5939 resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.6400 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that choppy recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD rises further to as high as 1.0532 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866. On the downside, below 1.0287 support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back. But before that, we'll stay bullish as long as 1.0287 support holds even in case of retreat. In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. Break of the upper channel resistance also points to acceleration. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside as recent decline resumes. Current fall should now target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9623 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation, possibly with recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9662) before staging another fall. In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Further rise is still expected with 83.85 minor support intact and USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption. In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's still struggling in range below 1.3234. On the upside, above 1.3234 will bring another rise to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434) to extend the consolidation from 1.2401. On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8852 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. But after all, near term outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back. In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/JPY's rally resumed after brief retreat and reaches as high as 122.94 so far. Intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 120.74 minor support holds. Further rise should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.52) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption. In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/JPY's rally resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.87 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Mid-Day Outlook GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6426 so far today and the break of 1.6400 resistance confirms that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 83.85 minor support intact, current rise in USD/JPY is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption. In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low. Break there will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/USD jumps further to as high as 1.4442 in early US session. The break of 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414 now paves the way to 161.8% projection at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4348 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110408b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD extended recent up trend and rose further to as high as 1.4486 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's break of 1.6400 resistance last week indicates that whole rise from 1.5343 and that from 1.4230 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5935 support holds. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's decline last week and break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for a test on 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD's up trend continued last week and made new record high 1.0581. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should now be seen to 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption. In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CAD's down trend was still in progress and dropped to as low as 0.9525 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead. In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY rose to as high as 85.51 last week but lost momentum and turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some consolidations below 85.51 temporary top first. But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish. In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF rose to 1.3234 las week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'll see which side EUR/CHF breaks out. Nonetheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/GBP retreated last week but downside was contained well above 0.8653 support as expected. Nevertheless, as upside is still limited below 0.8552 resistance, initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back. In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w4.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 123.07 last week. While the cross lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/JPY rose to as high as 139.99 last week but lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week. While some more rise might be seen initially this week, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next. In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross. In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110409w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
The EURUSD continued its strong bullish momentum this week after made a clear break above 1.4281 key resistance area and closed at 1.4483 on Friday. On my h4 chart below we can see price still moving smoothly inside the bullish channel. The white trend line, is actually the upper line of the bearish channel on weekly chart and already broken to the upside, suggests potential failure of the bearish weekly outlook at least testing December 2008 high at 1.4718 next week. On the downside, bearish correction warning and bullish exhaustion indicated by a CCI divergence which could test 1.4350 support area. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t3-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD made a temporary top at 1.6426 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 0.8921 should have finished at 0.9339 already and further fall should be seen to retest 0.8921 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside with 1.0506 minor support intact. Current rise 0.9704 should be targeting 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption. In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead. In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 85.51 temporary top, possibly with retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at ). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
As noted before, while some rise might be seen in GBP/JPY, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next. In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
While EUR/JPY is losing some upside momentum, further rise will remain in favor with 120.74 minor support intact. Current rally from 106.57 should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. There is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3423). On the downside, below 1.3053 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 0.8852 resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out but even in that case, we'd expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF had a bearish momentum on Friday after break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9000 – 0.8900 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9130. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 0.9200/30 resistance area but would change my medium outlook back to neutral bias. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y2-300x188.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Mid-Day Outlook
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen below 1.6426 temporary top. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a test on 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9160 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY's consolidation from 85.51 temporary top is still in progress and deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 84.13). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110411b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday and fell below 1.4400 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4350 but note that overall price is still in a major strong bullish outlook since the break above 1.4035 and I think the current short term bearish bias is only a normal correction. A clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish consolidation testing 1.4300 – 1.4250. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.4450 to end this bearish correction phase and continue the bullish scenario at least retesting 1.4500 – 1.4550. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...ly-300x189.jpg |
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