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رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD made another volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price slipped above the range area, topped at 1.4939 but closed lower at 1.4826. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. On daily chart below we can see price has been moving in a sideways condition since April 28 without consistent momentum and convincing bullish/bearish candle. The market is indecisive ahead of ECB today and US NFP tomorrow and I hope we can see clearer direction and consistent momentum after those two important events. Overall the technical bias remains strongly to the upside still targeting 1.5000 even 1.5143 (November 2009 high). On the downside, 1.4767/50 still provided a good intraday support so far, but a clear break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.4647 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario should remain intact. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...ly-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price unable to stay consistently above 1.6550/70 the intraday bias remains more to the downside, testing 1.6425 – 1.6350 and the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The major bullish scenario remains intact and the current bearish pressure is still considered as corrective movement but a break below the bullish channel will be a serious threat to the strong bullish outlook. On the upside, a clear break above 1.6550/70 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6737/00 resistance area. Fundamental focus is on BoE/MPC rate decision today and US NFP tomorrow. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y2-300x190.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart but now traded below 0.8624 suggests more bearish intraday bias still targeting 0.8500 support area. Price may keep moving in a sideways condition ahead of US NFP tomorrow, but overall my technical outlook remains strongly bearish. Immediate resistance remains around 0.8650 followed by 0.8779. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...43-300x188.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below 80.85 and hit 80.43 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 79.80 area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51). On the upside, another move back above 80.85 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves below 82.00 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t3-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURJPY Forecast The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 120.81 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 119.50 and hit 119.25 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 119.20 targeting 118.40/00 support area. Immediate resistance at 120.38 followed by 121.00. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...14-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPJPY Forecast The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 134.00 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 132.87 and now struggling around 132.97 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 132.97 targeting 130.20 support area. Immediate resistance remains around 134.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...41-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUDUSD Forecast The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below 1.0770 and hit 1.0695 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0581 support area. On daily below we can see 1.0770 provided an intraday resistance. Another move back above 1.0770 would lead us to neutral zone but as long as price moves below 1.0877 the bearish correction intraday outlook remains intact. It is too early to talk about a bearish reversal scenario, but a clear break below 1.0581 may give us a good reason to think about a bearish reversal, at least in a medium term outlook. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
جزيل الشكر لك أخى العزيز على المتابعة الدائمة والتحديث اليومى
بارك الله فيك |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Upside momentum in EUR/USD is a bit unconvincing for the moment. But we'd continue to favor further rally with 1.4754 minor support intact. Current rise should be targeting 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, however, break of 1.4754 support will indicate that a short term top is formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and should bring pull back through 1.4492 support instead. In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/UISD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.6744 continues. As noted before, we'd still expect downside of the consolidation to be contained by 1.5431 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point and current decline is expected to continue to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8645 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD's decline from 1.1010 extends further to as low as 1.0693 so far. The sustained trading below the near term rising trend line indicates that a short term top is formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD after hitting 1.1 psychological level. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone. On the upside, above 1.0876 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But consolidations would likely extend further as long as 1.1010 resistance holds. In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 extended further to to as high as 0.9602 so far and the break of 0.9575 resistance suggests that as short term bottom is formed on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9677). On the downside, break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first. In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY falls further to as low as 80.21 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/GBP's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.9040 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8980 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 0.8857 support and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF is still bounded in range of 1.2728/2971 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen be there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/JPY dips further to as low as 132.14 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead. In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
o change in EUR/JPY's outlook. With 118.49 minor support intact, another rise is still mildly in favor and above 121.82 will target 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead. In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Mid-Day Outlook
EUR/USD's sharp break of 1.4754 support indicates that a short term top is formed at 1.4938 after hitting upper channel resistance, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.4492 support and possibly further lower channel support (now at 1.4366). On the upside, break of 1.4938 is needed to confirm rally resumption or we'd expect more corrective trading first. In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 1.6431 support intact, we'd still expect recent rally to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
The break of 0.8552 minor resistance suggests that USD/CHF has formed a temporary low at 0.8552 already and intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8706) and above. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY's decline is still in progress and extends further to as low as 79.58 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the break of 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 now sets the stage for deeper fall to retest 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.43 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110505b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term. A clear break and daily close below the bullish channel and 1.6350 support area would be a threat to the current major bullish outlook testing 1.6160 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6450 followed by 1.6550. A clear break above 1.6550 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but would keep the major bullish scenario intact. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y3-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF had a significant bullish correction yesterday after found a good support around 0.8555 which formed a double bottom formation. On h4 chart below we have a huge bullish candle and price is now struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above 0.8711 and violation to the bearish channel could trigger further bullish correction testing 0.8779 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.8624. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure, keep the bearish scenario remains strong retesting 0.8555 support area. Fundamental focus is on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...44-300x190.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below 79.80 but closed higher at 80.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall my intraday bias remains bearish especially if price able to stay consistently below 79.80 testing 78.24 even 76.21. Immediate resistance at 80.85. A clear break and daily close above that area would be a threat to the current strong bearish outlook testing 82.00. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t4-300x188.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURJPY Forecast The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 116.13 and closed at 116.91. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 116.00 which can be a good intraday support at this phase testing 114.00 area. As you can see on my daily chart below, since the fall from 123.31, price may form a descending triangle bearish formation which would be validated on a clear break below 116.00. Immedidate resistance at 118.00 followed by 119.50. Huge movement yesterday forces our support/resistance level much wider so unless you have a good risk – reward ratio, do not rush jumping into the market. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...ly-300x190.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPJPY Forecast The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 130.89 after made a clear break below 132.97 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 130.20. Immediate resistance at 132.97, which is the best place for a short position with good risk –reward ratio. A clear break above 132.97 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 134.00 area. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...42-300x188.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUDUSD Forecast The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 1.0581 but had a strong bullish pullback earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.0733. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains bullish but price is still in a bearish correction/consolidation phase. A clear break and daily close below 1.0581 could continue the bearish correction. Immediate resistance at 1.0770. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0877 . We need a clear break at least above 1.0877 to keep the major bullish scenario strong aiming for another new all time high projection. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y4-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD had a huge bearish pullback yesterday after break below the range area, bottomed at 1.4509 and closed at 1.4557. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4450 support area which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939, which also located around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. Note that as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact, but a break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook testing 1.4150 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Immediate resistance at 1.4730. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y2-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/USD at 1.4938. Pull back from there is still in progress and should be targeting lower channel support (now at 1.4377). On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall. In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's break of 1.6431 support indicates that a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias is now back to the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 extended further and touched 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out but upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will extend recent down trend and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD made a temporary low at 1.0536 and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Another fall might be seen as long as 1.0788 minor resistance holds and below 1.0536 will target 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. Above 1.0788 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for a retest on 1.1010. But decisive break there is needed to confirm up trend resumption or consolidations would likely extend further with another fall. In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
As noted before, a short term bottom is formed in USD/CAD at 0.9444. Rebound from there extended to as high as 0.9710 so far and met 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise could still be seen as long as 0.9567 minor support holds, towards falling channel resistance (now at 0.9781). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first. In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY formed a temporary low at 79.85 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some sideway consolidations could be seen first. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low. In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Whole decline from 123.31 in EUR/JPY is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Focus remains on 113.54 support and as long as this support holds, we'd still favor the case for rebound from 106.57 to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 113.54 will put focus back to 106.57 low instead. In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF's strong break of 1.2728 confirms that whole fall from 1.3234 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for deeper fall. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and current decline should now target a new low below 1.2401. On the upside, above 1.2762 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.2971 resistance holds. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/GBP at 0.9041 and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 0.8857. Break will confirm this case and bring deeper pull back towards 38.2% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8752. On the upside, break of 0.9401 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidation with risk of another fall even in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside and fall from 139.99 would extend further to 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead. In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Mid-Day Outlook
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment and current pull back from 1.4938 short term top is still expected to continue to lower channel support (now at 1.4385) and possibly lower. On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall. In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506b2.gif |
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