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رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD drops to as low a 1.6354 earlier today before recovering mildly. As noted before for a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF rebounds further to as high as 0.8794 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first. Further break there will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506b1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110506b2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY's recovery from 79.58 is still in progress and might extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 81.16) and above. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low. In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Weekly Summary: Important supports broken, bearish correction likely to continue The EURUSD had a significant bearish correction this week, bottomed at 1.4308 and closed at 1.4314 after unable to make a clear break above 1.4900, made a huge bearish candle on the weekly chart. On daily chart below we can see two support regions had been broken to the downside: The bullish channel was violated and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939 had been breached. This fact could continue the bearish correction testing 1.4150 (38.2%) even 1.4000. Immediate resistance at 1.4600 followed by 1.4750. Long term bullish scenario remains intact, but my short and medium term outlooks are now in a bearish mode. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y3-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.4938 last week and fell sharply to close at 1.4314. Initial bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low. In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6355 last week. A short term top top is at least in place and initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF dropped further to 0.8552 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.0536 last week but managed to draw support from 1.0388/0581 support and formed a temporary low there and recovery. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1194. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008. In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CAD rebounded further to as high as 0.9701 last week after forming a short term bottom at 0.9444. With 0.9567 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9778). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first. In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first. In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY dropped to as low as 79.58 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low. In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair. In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/GBP rose to 0.9041 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply to as low as 0.8744. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Note that break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains. In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799. In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 1.2575 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2401 first. As noted before, whole consolidation patter from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 115.20 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31. In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal. In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/JPY's fall from 139.99 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 130.88 before recovering mildly. Further decline remains in favor initially this week and focus will be on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above. In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses. In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w2.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110508w3.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
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رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a strong bearish momentum on Thursday and Friday after break below the range area and hit 1.4308. There were some upside pullback earlier today in Asian session but as long as price stays below 1.4518 resistance area my intraday bias remains more to the downside now testing 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. A clear break back above 1.4518 would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 1.4600. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we need to see a clear break above 1.4900 to see further bullish scenario testing 1.5000. Huge movement forces our support/resistance much wider but we must keep our risk –reward ratio in a good level. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...rt-300x188.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD still able to maintain its bearish phase so far and slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact not only could continue the bearish phase in nearest term testing 1.6280 but also a serious threat to the major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.6425/50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6500 but I think we need at least a clear break above 1.6600 to keep the major bullish scenario remains strong. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t1-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish correction on Friday, slipped above 0.8779 but still unable to stay consistently above that area so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.8779 targeting 0.8900. Immediate support at 0.8710. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8624. The major bearish scenario remains intact but need a clear break below 0.8555 to continue the major bearish scenario. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...45-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped above 80.85 on Friday but still unable to stay above that area so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 82.00 I still prefer a bearish scenario but a clear break above 80.85 could trigger further upside pullback testing 82.00. On the downside, we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 78.24 even 76.21. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t5-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, closed at 115.39 but opened higher earlier today in Asian session at 116.23, made a gap as easily seen on hourly/h4 chart. As long as price moves below 116.00 my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside targeting 114.00. Immediate resistance at 116.35. A clear break above that area would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 117.00/50 resistance area. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y1-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still targeting 130.20. A clear break above 132.97 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 134.00 but would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...43-300x188.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD bearish correction was paused on Friday after unable to stay consistently below 1.0581 and now struggling around 1.0770. The bias is neutral in nearest term but unless we have a consistent move back above 1.0877 the bearish correction scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 1.0660. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, i mentioned that many believed that the current bullish run is far overextended. 1.48 – 1.5 seems to be a hard ceiling and with the US Non-Farm Payroll due, we may expect the unexpected.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FciTnpn3q6...kao/s400/1.jpg Looking at the EUR/USD Daily chart above, we note an extremely bearish last two days for the week. While the currency pair ranged tightly during the first part of the week, the European Central Bank interest rate decision in the mid week probably started the bearish correction. Many investors were expecting a hike in the European interest rate due to the inflation risks. It remained status quo instead. Knee jerk reactions probably sent the EUR/USD down due to an Euro currency sell off. Towards the end of the week, more developments happened. First it was the US Non-Farm Payroll turning out to be better than expected. While this drove more sentiments in favor of the recovering economy of America, the unexpected hike in unemployment rate probably caused confusion and disappointment. It stands at 9% now. Secondly, there was speculation that Greece may exit the Euro currency. As it is widely believed that such actions undermine the stability and confidence of the Euro currency, a knee jerk selling of the Euro currency probably happened. *** From a technical point of view, the bullish momentum had come a long way. We were nearing the 1.5 level and the currency pair was at the upper trend line. The little support the lower trend line offered was indicative of the strong sell off. If the currency pair attempts to climb back into the EUR/USD bullish channel, 1.46+/- will be probably the line to watch out for. A dip below 1.42 will probably suggest a greater bearish correction. While we all know of the problems of the American economy, the job market and housing market, let us not forget that the Euro Zone faces challenges too. The Euro Zone budget deficit crisis is still lurking and the different characteristics of the various Euro Zone countries make any coordinated policy challenging to implement. Next is heavy on crucial economic reports such as the US TIC Long-Term Purchases and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Hence it is important that your money management is properly implemented. Trade Safely. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside with 0.8821 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for the moment and current fall from 1.3234 is still in progress for a retest on 1.2401 low. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside for further fall towards 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00), which is the main near term focus. Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
At this point, intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside with 117.57 minor resistance intact and current fall could extend through 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 79.58 temporary low. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.4587 minor resistance intact. Fall from 1.4938 short term top is still in favor to extend further towards 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low. http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110509a1.gif http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20110509a2.gif |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside and fall from 1.6744 short term top is still in progress for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 short term bottom could still continue towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen first. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1218. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
بارك الله في هذا الجهد إن شاء الله وأفاد به الجميع ..، |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Mid-Day Outlook
EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.4278 in early US session so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 short term top extends further to as low as 1.6309 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6406 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 short term bottom could still extend towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY's consolidation from 79.58 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF's fall extends further to as low as 1.2548 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2401/32 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Break of 1.2401 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3234 to 1.2728 from 1.2961 at 1.2142 next. On the upside, above 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
شكرا يا غالي .. بارك الله فيك على هذا التحليل الجميل |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4253 but closed higher at 1.4367 made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On hourly chart below we can see since the breakdown below the range area price still making lower highs indicated that the bearish phase should remain intact, still targeting 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.4375 followed by 1.4438. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we would need a clear break at least above 1.4518 to see further bullish pressure which could end or at least pause the current short term strong bearish correction outlook. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y4-300x190.jpg |
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