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رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CAD's fall from 0.9710 was brief and the recovery dampened the immediate bearish view of down trend resumption. Instead, focus is back on 0.9710/20 resistance zone. Sustained break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512). In such case, USD/CAD should have bottomed out in near term and stronger rise should be seen towards 0.9972 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9512 will turn focus back to 0.9444 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
No change in USD/JPY's outlook as recovery from 79.58 continues. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/JPY's recovery was limited below 134.23 and weakens again. The failure below 134.23 suggests that fall from 139.99 is possibly still in progress and focus remains on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. nevertheless, strong support from 130.17 and break of 134.23 will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is not finished and should flip bias back to the upside for 137.01 and then 139.99.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remains on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/JPY's recovery was limited below 117.57 minor resistance and fall from 123.31 resumed by edging lower to 114.55. Further decline could still be seen with 117.57 intact and focus will remain on 113.54 support. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. Though, strong rebound above there, will retain the bullish case that rebound from 106.57 is still in progress. Above 117.57 will flip bias back to the upside for 121.82 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2484 temporary low continues. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Overall outlook in the cross remains unchanged. consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.2484 should send EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/GBP's fall from 0.9041 extended further to as low as 0.8672 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. The deeper than expected fall opens up the case that rise from 0.8284 support is finished at 0.9041 already. Focus is now on 0.8671 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 0.8284 key support next. Though, we didn't totally give up the bullish case yet. Strong rebound from the current level and break of 0.8817 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9041 resistance.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and dips to as low as 1.4122 so far today. While further decline is still in favor, focus remains on whether 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) would hold eventually. Strong rebound form the current level and break of 1.4422 minor resistance will retain the bullish outlook and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will indicate that whole rise from 1.2873 is finished and should bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3445 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's break of 1.6269 support confirms that whole decline from 1.6744 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, break of 1.6515 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.6744. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 could extend further towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.8974). Though, we'd continue to expect expect strong resistance at 0.8895/9006 resistance zone to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8783 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 low first. However, sustained break of 0.9006 resistance will raise the possibility of medium term bottoming and would bring stringer rise to 0.9339 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY's sideway consolidation form 79.58 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4123 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4276 but traded lower and hit 1.4183 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential range area between 1.4250/80 – 1.4123. Since the failure of the falling wedge bullish scenario as you can see on my hourly chart below, I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still testing 1.4000 support area. Immediate support at 1.4171. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.4123 and might give us an early indication to another bearish attempt testing 1.4000. On the upside, immediate resistance remains around 1.4250/80. A clear break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.4350 – 1.4420 resistance area. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y6-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday and now traded below 1.6280 support area, suggests potential further bearish outlook testing 1.6164 in nearest term. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish continuation testing 1.6000 support area. On the upside, another move back above 1.6280 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6320/70 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t5-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday made a Doji on daily chart. The bullish correction scenario was paused after unable to make a clear break above 0.8900 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price is still in a bullish correction phase but need a clear break above 0.8900 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9000. Immediate support remains around 0.8779. A clear break below that area could be a threat to the current bullish correction outlook testing 0.8555 key support area. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...49-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Price is now struggling around 80.85 support area. Another clear break below that area and the trend line support (red) could trigger further bearish pressure testing 79.80 but note that we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario since the fall from 85.51. As long as price stays above 79.80 price is still in a consolidation phase from an h4 chart point of view. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t9-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 114.17 but closed higher at 115.27. There are some downside pressures earlier today in Asian session and another clear break below 114.50 could trigger another bearish pressure retesting 114.00 support area. A clear break below 114.00 could continue the bearish scenario testing 112.05. Immediate resistance remains around 116.00 followed by 117.00/50. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y4-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 132.97 and hit 131.27 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we seem to have a good intraday support around 130.90 as you can see on my h4 chart below. We need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario testing 130.20. A clear break below 130.20 could continue the bearish scenario testing 129.16 support area. Immediate resistance at 132.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 132.97 but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...46-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 1.0581/40 support area and traded higher around 1.0627 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that after the fall from 1.1010 historical high, price made a lower high at 1.0887 where a trend line resistance can be drawn. As long as price stays below 1.0887 and the trend line resistance, this pair is still in a bearish correction outlook, but need a clear break below 1.0581/40 to continue the bearish phase testing 1.0440 even lower. Immediate resistance remains around 1.0704 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0750 – 1.0779 resistance area, even testing the trend line resistance. The major bullish scenario remains intact but my bullish mode will be reactivated at least by a movement above the trend line resistance and 1.0887, aiming for another new historical high. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y6-300x190.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish weekly outlook threatened as bearish continues
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum this week, bottomed at 1.4065 and closed at 1.4115 on Friday. The Euro failed to continue the bullish outlook which led by the breakout above the trend line resistance on April and now slipped back below the trend line resistance as you can see on my weekly chart below and price is now testing April’s low at 1.4061. A clear break below 1.4061 – 1.4000 key support area could trigger further bearish outlook testing 1.3782 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1875 – 1.4939. Immediate resistance at 1.4200 followed by 1.4440. As long as price moves below 1.4440 my short/medium technical bias remains to the downside. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...ly-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Weekly Outlook EUR/USD's fall from 1.4938 extended further to as low as 1.4066 last week and the break of 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) argues that whole rise from 1.2873 has completed at 1.4938 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside initially this week and deeper fall should now be seen to 1.3427/3860 support zone next. On the upside, above 1.4338 resistance is needed to suggest near term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes. In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/USD's decline from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6416 last week and broke 1.6166 support. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should now be seen towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8552 extended further to as high as 0.8495 last week and is now in key near term resistance zone of 0.8895/9006. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with focus on 0.9006 resistance. Sustained break there will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, reversal from the current resistance zone of 0.8895/9006, followed by break of 0.8797 minor support will retain the bearish case and flip bias back to the downside for a new low below 0.8552.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead. In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUD/USD's consolidation from 1.1010 continued last week with another dip towards the end. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.1010 to 1.0536 from 1.0887 at 1.0413. On the upside, above 1.0715 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.0887 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008. In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 resumed by taking out 0.9710/20 last week. More important, a head and shoulder bottom bottom pattern should be formed (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512) and 0.9444 might be a medium term bottom. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9444 to 0.9710 from 0.9512 at 0.9778 first. Break will affirm the case of medium term revive and target key resistance at 0.9972. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.9444 low instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indicate that medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has completed yet. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first. In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USD/JPY continued to consolidate above 79.58 temporary low last week and outlook remains unchanged. With 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery could still be seen. But evening that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair. In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/GBP dropped further to 0.8672 last week but drew support from 0.8671 resistance turned support and near term rising channel and recovered. However, upside is so far upside below 0.8817 minor resistance and thus, there is no indication of near term bottoming yet. A break of 0.8672 will indicate resumption of fall from 0.9041. More important this will argue that whole rise from 0.8284, is completed already and will bring deeper decline to medium term rising trend line (now at 0.8422). On the upside, though, extending rebound from current level and break of 0.8817 will suggest that pull back from 0.9041 has completed and will bring stronger rise to retest this high.
In the bigger picture, current development is now mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure in turn indicate that whole fall from 0.9799 (2008 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Sustained break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799. In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/CHF dropped further to 1.2484 last week then turned sideway. INitial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above. In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 extended further to as low as 113.49 last week and remains weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has indeed completed at 123.31 already. In such case, further fall should be seen to retest 106.57 low next. On the upside, break of 117.57 resistance is needed to signal bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the current development argues that medium term rebound from 105.42 has possibly finished with three waves up to 123.31. In other words, it's merely a correction pattern inside the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will pave the way for a retest on 105.42 low first. On the upside, however, break of 123.31 will revive that case that down trend from 169.96 has indeed completed at 105.42 already and will turn outlook bullish again. In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development raised the possibility that the 105.42 is not yet the bottom. In case of another fall, we'll continue to look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBP/JPY's recovery was limited at 134.00 and subsequent break of 130.88 support confirmed that whole decline from 139.99 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained break of 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, break of 134.00 resistance is now needed to signal completion of the fall from 139.99. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Current development now favors that case that rebound from 122.40 is merely a correction in three waves that's completed at 139.99. In other words, fall from 163.05 is not over yet. Sustained break of 130.17 support will bring a new low below 122.40. Though, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, decisive break of 139.99 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above. In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.4065 and hit 1.4047 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.4000 key support area. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3800 – 1.3700 area this week. Immediate resistance at 1.4123 – 1.4150. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4200 but overall my short/medium term technical bias remains strongly to the downside and no sign of potential recovery for the single currency so far. CCI remains in negative territory on hourly, h4 and daily chart suggests a bearish view. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y7-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6145 but still unable to move consistently below 1.6164 support area so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.6164 testing 1.6000 – 1.5970 key support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6230/50. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6300/50 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...t6-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum on Friday and now traded above 0.8900 suggests further bullish correction continuation testing 0.9000 in nearest term. On the downside, another move back below 0.8900 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price stays above 0.8779 we are still in a bullish phase which started after the breakout above the bearish channel and I still prefer a bullish intraday outlook at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...10-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement on Friday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price is moving in a sideways mode. On daily chart below we can see the bearish momentum since the fall from 85.51 found a support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51 around 79.80 and the trend line support. We also have a hammer candle stick formation which stopped the bearish momentum. We need a clear break below the trend line support and 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario. As long as price stays above 80.85 the intraday technical bias remains more to the upside, but also need a clear break above 81.33 to continue the bullish momentum testing 82.00 resistance area. Hourly CCI remains in a bullish territory while h4 and daily in a neutral zone. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y1-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, fell below 114.00 but still struggling around that area so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 114.00 targeting 112.05. Immediate resistance at 114.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 115.50 but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y5-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday but bounced a little bit higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 131.18 after found a support around 130.20. The bias is neutral in nearest term and price also still trapped in a range area. I still prefer a bearish scenario but need a clear break below 130.20 to continue the bearish pressure testing 127.77. Immediate resistance at 131.55 followed by 132.30. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y1-300x189.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, fell below 1.0540 and struggling around that area now. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 1.0540 targeting 1.0440 – 1.0388 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.0620. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 1.0700 and the trend line resistance (white) my short/medium outlook remains more to the downside with potential medium bearish target around 1.0200. http://fxisite.fxinstructorllc.netdn...y7-300x188.jpg |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, whole rise from 1.2873 has possibly completed at 1.4938 already. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 1.4338 resistance holds, towards 1.3427/3860 support zone next. Though, a break of 1.4338 will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with 1.6307 minor resistance and further decline should be seen towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
With 0.8797 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside but focus is still on 0.9006 resistance. Sustained break there will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9005) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, reversal from the current resistance zone of 0.8895/9006, followed by break of 0.8797 minor support will retain the bearish case and flip bias back to the downside for a new low below 0.8552.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
At this point, intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside as correction from 1.1010 would extend further towards 100% projection of 1.1010 to 1.0536 from 1.0887 at 1.0413. On the upside, above 1.0715 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.0887 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008. |
رد: █▓▒░ تحليل فني يومي لخمسة أزواج █▓▒░
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, a head and shoulder bottom bottom pattern should be formed (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512) and 0.9444 might be a medium term bottom. Further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9444 to 0.9710 from 0.9512 at 0.9778 first. Break will affirm the case of medium term reversal and target key resistance at 0.9972. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.9444 low instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indicate that medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has completed yet. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first. |
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