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رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
تحليل EURUSD من بنك ويستباك http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430076342.png تحليل AUDNZD من بنك ويستباك http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430076405.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
[COLOR="Green"]
تعليق بنك يو بى على الاحداث الاقتصادية المهمة و التى تصدر خلال هذا الاسبوع http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430076914.png /COLOR] |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
تعليق و رؤية بنك جولدمان ساكس الأسبوعية لعدد من أزواج العملات الرئيسية http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430077479.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
بنك جولدمان ساكس : برنت يبدو مستعدا لمواصلة الصعود http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430077588.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
تحليل EURUSD من بنك جولدمان ساكس http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430077921.png http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430077951.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
بنك جولدمان ساكس يتوقع وصول EURUSD فى 3 أشهر الى 1.0200 و فى 6 أشهر الى 1.000 و فى 12 شهر الى 0.9500 البنك يتوقع وصول GBPUSD فى 3 أشهر الى 1.4800 وفى 6 أشهر الى 1.4900 و فى 12 شهر الى 1.4600 البنك يتوقع وصول USDJPY فى 3 أشهر الى 122.00 و فى 6 اشهر الى 125.00 و فى 12 شهر الى 130.00 |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
تحليل مؤشر الدولار " دولار اندكس " من سيتى بنك الأن http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430116290.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
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تحليل مؤشر الدولار " دولار اندكس" من بنك كريدى سويس http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430116447.png [/COLOR] |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
التحديث اليومى من بنك كريدى سويس شراء USDJPY و GBPUSD و USDCHF بيع EURUSD و AUDUSD و NZDUSD و USDCAD و EURJPY و EURGBP |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
USDJPY
منطقة الدعم المذكورة سابقا و المحددة على التشارت مازالت تمنع الزوج من الهبوط اغلاق أسفل المنطقة المحددة سعنى مزيدا من الهبوط للزوج لدينا أخبار مهمة لهذا الأسبوع فى مشاركة سابقة http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430120103.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
المحللون فى بنك باركليز يتوقعون أن يواجه USDJPY مزيدا من الضعف فى ضوء اجتماع البنك اليابانى الخميس القادم اذا ما أبقى البنك على سياسته المالية كما هى دون تغيير اذ يتوقع البعض مزيد من التيسير الكمى فى هذا الاجتماع . المحللون يتوقعون أن ينتظر البنك اليابانى حتى يوليو قبيل اعلان مزيد من التيسير الكمى . |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
بنك مورجان ستانلى يرفع توقعاته لخام برينت الى 62 دولار بدلا من 58 دولار بنهاية هذا العام |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
وكالة فيتش للتصنيف الائتمانى تخفض تصنيف اليابان الائتمانى الى A من +A مع نظرة مستقبلية مستقرة |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
GBPJPY عند مقاومة قوية ... اختراق أم ارتداد .. ننتظر التأكيد
http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430128074.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
صفقة الأسبوع من بنك مورجان ستانلى : بيع NZDJPY من 91.20 الهدف 87.30 الاستوب 92.50 صفقة الأسبوع من سيتى بنك بيع NZDJPY من 90.49 الهدف89.00 وقف الخسارة 91.20 |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
جولدمان ساكس : نثق فى تحسن البيانات الأمريكية خلال الريع الثانى من العام الحالى ... و نبقى بائعين ل EURUSD فى ضوء الازمة اليونانية و اجتماع الفيدرالى لاحقا هذا الاسبوع |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
لوديز بنك : GBPUSD يقترب من مستوى 1.5200 و نراقب السعر هنا و ننتظر تكون قمة |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
التحديث اليومى من بنك يو بى اس : بيع EURUSD و EURGBP و GBPUSD شراء EURCHF و USDCHF و USDJPY |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
تشارت من بنك يو بى اس يوضح التداعيات المحتملة لفشل اليونان فى سداد المستحقات المطلوبة منها http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430136055.png |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
رؤية بنك أر بى اس هذا الاسبوع : بيع EUR/USD و AUD/USD و الخروج من بيع GBP/USD و AUD/NZD |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
Fading Fed rate hike expectations may risk a squeeze of EUR shorts after this week's FOMC. A soft patch for the US economy has disappointed those expecting rate hikes, sending USD lower since the March FOMC and 10-yr UST yields down 13 bps. But EUR/USD shorts are USD 2.5 bln larger over that time. If the Fed meets dovish expectations, a short squeeze seems likely. Unlike in March, the sideways trading is making those short EUR nervous. A bid for USD/Asia has also dissipated. ACBs won't be intervening to buy back those USDs in the majors as they were in March. Such flows led to ACB EUR/USD selling over 1.1000, which was key in establishing the top near there after the March NFPs. With 78% of USD longs held versus EUR vs 50% in early March, a surprisingly hawkish Fed could see EUR/crosses boosted as players re-establish USD longs vs other currencies than EUR. (IFR)
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رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
CAPITAL ECONOMICS: With the election just days away, the news that the UK'€™s economic recovery slowed sharply in the first quarter clearly won'€™t help the coalition parties, but this slowdown should just be temporary. The preliminary estimate of a 0.3% quarterly rise in GDP in Q1 was weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% rise (and even our forecast of a 0.4% increase). Construction output fell by 1.6% q/q, while manufacturing output rose by just 0.1%. And although services output rose by 0.5%, this was much weaker than Q4's 0.9% rise. Nonetheless, we doubt that the recovery is on the cusp of a sustained slowdown. Households'€™ real incomes are still on track for their strongest growth this year since 2006. And the business surveys remain upbeat and consistent with quarterly GDP growth returning to 0.7% or 0.8% quarterly rates soon. Indeed, Q1’s figure could eventually be revised up to these sorts of rates (although obviously not in time to help the incumbent government). We still think that the economy will grow by close to 3% this year as a whole. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
GS: G10 FX – LONDON SPOT TRADER VIEWS OVERVIEW => Ahead of events later this week, we maintain our conservative stance (less than 25% of maximum risk) and hold on to our long USD position mainly vs EUR. {EU} EURUSD Lower => We maintain our moderate positioning here and prefer to be flexible on the lookout for short term opportunities. Key levels for the session: resistance at 1.0927 and then 1.0950, with support back towards 1.0820 and 1.0780-85. {GB} GBPUSD Lower => The break of 1.52 opens up decent space on the upside without major resistance levels. Key technical levels: resistance now around 1.5315 with little notable points above, and support back at 1.5170-80. {JN} USDJPY Lower=> We maintain our bias to be short at these levels, with technical levels to watch: support at 118.75-80, then 118.50 and 118.00, while on the topside resistance at the 119.40-50 area. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
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كريدى سويس Today’s trades/positions: EURUSD: Short at 1.0895, stop above 1.0960, for 1.0670. USDJPY: Flat. Buy at 118.75, stop/reverse below 118.15, for 120.30. GBPUSD: Long, stop below 1.4960, for 1.5332. USDCHF: Long at .9530, stop/reverse below .9447, for .9790. AUDUSD: Reversed to a long at .7850, stop below .7791, for .7914/39. NZDUSD: Short at .7670, stop/reverse above .7745, for .7425. USDCAD: Short at 1.2250, stop above 1.2330, for 1.2005. EURJPY: Short at 129.20, stop above 130.40, for 126.15. EURGBP: Short at .7350, stop above .7440, for .7015. [/COLOR] |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
جى بى مورجان TECHNICAL UPDATE With the USD maintaining a heavy tone following last week’s poor performance, the focus stays on the next line of important support levels which should define whether a deeper corrective phase is underway. In this regard, the focus stays on the DXY and JPM USD Index as key near term levels remain well-defined. The follow-through weakness for the DXY after failing at key initial resistance in the 98.45/70 zone has led to a push below the 96.75/65. In turn, a closer test of the important 96.33/17 range lows is expected. Moreover, note the JPM USD Index sees important support at the 96.00/95.90 short term range lows. Violations here should confirm a deeper short term corrective phase. For the individual pairs, we also see an important test as the bounce in EUR/USD from the 1.0660/20 support zone shifts the focus to near term resistance starting at the 1.0925/60 zone with breaks allowing for a closer test of the range highs near 1.1053/65. Again, this area should define whether a more sustained corrective phase is underway. The late week decline for USD/JPY shifts the focus back to the 118.52/00 support zone which includes the March low. Breaks should confirm a deteriorating setup and risk of a deeper pullback. Note the 120.10/85 levels remain key resistance and should help define a retest of the March peak. With regards to the commodity currencies, yesterday’s outperformance turns the focus to the next line of key levels. For AUD/USD, the push through key initial resistance in the .7844 area (mid-April high) suggests a closer test of the more important .7939 March peak and short term range highs. Again, this area will define whether a deeper corrective phase can develop. Despite last week’s pullback, yesterday’s bounce in NZD/USD highlights the importance of the .7520/7495 support zone (March uptrendline). Above the .7665/70 breakdown area from last week would shift the focus back to the .7742/57 zone which includes last week’s high. The heavy price action for USD/CAD continues to develop following the breakdown below 1.2350 range lows as the focus turns to the important 1.21/1.19 support zone (38.2% retrace from Nov/July, BoC breakout area from Jan) and where some retracement is due. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
Citi: EURUSD flow update Net buying is emerging as turnover picks up in EURUSD. The buying has been led by corporates, with leveraged names actually small sellers on the day. EURUSD is now comfortably above the 50d MA (1.0887) with the 55d now looming at 1.0932. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
سوستيه جنرال The Fed’s two-day meeting starts today but markets are finding it pretty easy to contain their excitement. A dovish statement and no policy moves are universally expected. Today we get consumer confidence, Case-Shiller house price and Richmond Fed manufacturing data, which won’t add much to the debate, while yesterday’s dip in the services PMI to 57.4 from 59.2 supports the notion that the US economy is growing, but not as fast as it was or as some would like it to. The US is the only market where 2-year rates are higher now than they were six months ago (14bp higher) and that in turn is reflected in the dollar having gone up against all the rest of G10FX. But if we look at the last three months, US rates are up only 6bp, and we’ve had bigger rises in NOK, GBP and CAD. At the risk of stating the obvious, the dollar, up between 8% *vs CHF) and 24% (vs SEK) over the last year, has been re-priced on monetary policy divergence and won’t make further headway until that trend resumes. In the meantime, the FX market is once again gravitating towards yield – and the four currencies with the highest rates in G10 are indeed the ones which have done best this week. It sounds like a recipe for lower volatility and for money to leach towards emerging markets (again) until the US rate outlook changes again. Overnight data saw a sharp fall in retail sales in Japan (-9.7% y/y, distorted by last year’s pre-consumption tax jump, but still awful). Strong Apple earnings, ongoing talk of QE in China, and strong house price gains in Sydney made headlines too. Today, other than the US data we have UK GDP, expected to slow to 0.5% q/q and 2.6% y/y as a result of weaker construction. UK growth expectations are now heading slowly lower. Sterling is unlikely to react much unless the data are softer than expected, though we are in the ‘sell zone’ for GBP/USD now. The Japanese data failed to prevent a strong day for the Nikkei, and didn’t move USD/JPY, any more than yesterday’s downgrade by Fitch did. CFTC data suggest short yen positions are being cut back aggressively but USD/JPY risk-reversals are still heavily skewed to the upside and this probably needs to correct before we can put strategic long USD/JPY positions back on. Like many trades, this one, too, waits on the Fed..,.. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
يو بى اس Spot Desk - Upside Room In AUDUSD EURUSD was bid Monday but lacked follow through and has opened almost unchanged in Europe. We don't trust this move overall but may have to accept the bid tone ahead of the month-end. Keep it tight and stay flexible for now, only getting involved at the extremes. USDCHF slipped to 0.9495 from 0.9560 Monday as the market wanted to buy Swiss francs for what seemed to be early transaction of month-end flows. The pair held the important support ahead of 0.9480-90. We expect similar moves today with very little in terms of data releases. Sell rallies to 0.9570-80. EURCHF remains stuck in the 1.0350-1.0420 range with limited interest; play this range for now. Sterling broke higher late in New York and is starting to test the March highs. We still believe it's a sell up here but technically, there may be room towards the February high. Stay on the sideline today and watch if EURUSD gets capped before selling Cable. UK preliminary GDP will be out today. USDJPY traded in an extremely quiet 18-pip range overnight with the market awaiting the BoJ decision on Thursday. Boy on dips ahead of the first bigger support around 118.80 with stops below 118.50, targeting Monday's highs. AUDUSD turned bid late Monday when gold started rallying and broke above 0 .7850, where it was capped earlier this month. RBA Governor Stevens declined to comment on monetary policy ahead of next week's RBA meeting. The pair might still have some room on the upside but we prefer to start fading ahead of the March high of 0.7940 with stops above 0.8050. NZDUSD is a touch higher as the US dollar came under pressure on Monday, but the market seems to be preparing for a dovish RBNZ tomorrow. AUDNZD has been steadily grinding higher. The next levels on the upside are 1.0455 and 1.0545. We see more room of position adjustments in Kiwi ahead of the meeting but expectations for a dovish RBNZ are accordingly rising. USDCAD remains heavy as commodities are resilient. The pair is capped at 1.2350 and supported at 1.2060. There is a longer-term uptrend line around 1.1950. Enter fresh longs at 1.20, above the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0623-1.2836 move with a tight stop at 1.1925. Watch BoC Governor Poloz's comments later today. EURSEK remains rangebound with steady buying interest on dips that get capped at 9.40. Watch Sweden consumer confidence and retail sales data today. EURNOK is holding the 8.30-8.55 range. It has been trading soft for the past few days with NOKSEK inching higher, which seems driven by the interest rate differential and oil having found some support. Gold had a quiet start on Monday but then ran stops up to $1207.30 from $1188 as two massive buy orders hit the CME during the auction. This move came even though equities closed at an all-time high and Greece reshuffled the team for bailout negotiations. Despite the move today, we still recommend being short gold, with stops placed at the 1215/20 area, targeting 1180/1150 area. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
جولدمان ساكس باع EURUSD امبارح بهدف 1.0560 و استوب 1.1050 |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
كنت أتمنى لو أن هناك تفاعلا ايجابيا و أن نتشارك جميعا فى مناقشة هذه الأفكار و التوصيات التى لا تأتى من فراغ و بالتالى لها قيمة كبيرة سواء حققت الهدف أم لا لأنها تكشف الكثير من أساليب تداول الجانب الاخر من السوق ... أنا أثق انه اذا ما كنا قد تعاونا سويا ... كنا سنحسن من أدائنا فى التداول بالتوقيق للجميع و تمنياتى لكم بمزيد من الأرباح باذن الله و الأهم الصحة و العافية و السعادة :) تحيااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااتى و الى اللقاء |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
اخي العزيز صاحب الموضوع لقد استفدت من المعلومات التي تقدمها ونشكر لك الجهد الذي تبذله في فائدة المتداولين وارجو ان تتحمل وتطلب الاجر من الله لبذلك هذه الفائدة والتعب في جلبها ولك خالص الشكر والتقدير ونتمنى منك الاستمرار
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رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
اقتباس:
الموضوع هو اننى أريد أن أعرض البيانات مترجمة حتى يتثنى للجميع الاستفادة بها و هى تحتاج الى وقت كثير لترجمتها سأستمر فى النشر ما قدر الله لى و ان كان قد يكون بالانجليزية يمكن الاستعانة بمترجم جوجل لمن هو غير جيد بالانجليزية أو يقوم أحد الاعضاء الكرام تطوعا بترجمة المهم فى المشاركة شكرا للجميع :) |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
سوسيته جنيرال {EU} Theme overnight continues to be USD length cut back with markets consolidating into the FOMC tomorrow. We've pushed through 1.0950 so far with another round of offers here into 1.1000 but the real significant resistance up at 1.1050 where we topped out last month. Down below there is some traffic on the charts into 1.0880 but the real test in our mind isnt until the 1.0750-1.08 region that the market toyed with last week. There are about 1bn of 1.0850-1.0900 rolling off today so they could weigh on the market all else equal into 10am {GB} GBPUSD continues its ascent peaking through 1.5300 earlier but we found some interbank supply into that region. From here the next level above is 1.5340-50 where some offers come into the market but we dont have a ton until 1.5380-1.5400 with talk of stops above there away from us. Down below we envision support into 1.5250 but really dont have much on the charts to the downside now until 1.5100-50. Meanwhile EURGBP chops around 7150 with some supply on the book into and right above 7200 and then there is some support into 7120-00 with some traffic on the books below there but stops likely if we break down {SZ} EURCHF has quietly rallied through last week's highs overnight and taken out some strong selling interest into 1.0450-75 here we suspect the next level of resistance lies 1.0500-25 where we understand stops lie above. This keeps USDCHF trading higher on a generally down session for the USD and for now we have avoided a meaningful test of the key 9450-9500 support. Meanwhile the 9700 resistance region (which we rejected earlier last week) week still looms large up above 15:02:49 {JN} USDJPY tested lower on the broader USD move but we filled in modest bids here into the 118.80 and hold for now. Up above you have some congestion on the charts into 11920-30 (where the 100 DMA sits) and 11980-90 where the 50 and 55DMAs sit but the real congestion regions on the charts dont come in until 121.00-20 and 121.50-122.0 up above and then 117.50 below. Expiries see a total of about 1.5bn btwn 118.75 and 119.0 {AU} AUDUSD has toyed with the idea of a break above 8000 but not managed to get through just yet as we've found local supply into 7970-80 and think there are still macros looking to play the short side on rallies (although at this point wouldnt be surprised to see stops through 8010-20). Down below 7820-40 was a pivot to the topside so we look for that region to be supportive for now. There are abt 1bn of of 7975-80s rolling off today {CA} $CAD trades down to 1.2050 but we found strong demand interbank into this region and and envision further support into 1.2020-40 (which held late last week. Up above we see some supply into 1.2200-1.2180 here but could see others happy to sell into 1.2150 which we saw as a key support on the charts on the way down. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
بى ان بى باريبا Long USD and NZD vs. JPY ahead of policy meetings A raft of policy announcements is due tomorrow: the FOMC, RBNZ and BoJ will take centre stage. The FOMC will be a key focus and we remain of the view that the risks are skewed to a USD friendly reaction given how little tightening is priced in over the next six months. We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold and think that a neutral message could bolster the NZD. We entered a short AUDNZD recommendation at 1.0225 in the past week, targeting a move down to 0.98 in the cross in addition to an existing long NZDJPY options trade. In Japan, our economists see little appetite for further easing by the BoJ despite slumping inflation expectations. Notwithstanding this, we think the risk-reward of being long USDJPY is attractive into the meeting. We added a recommendation to buy short-dated 25-delta USDJPY calls last week. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
بى ان بى باريبا Smoother progress in Greece will not boost the EUR Prospects for smoother Greek negotiations with creditors emerged overnight as Prime Minister Tsipras reshuffled his team that handles talks with European and IMF lenders. The move is viewed as an effort to push Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis – often seen as brash - to a less active role in negotiations. Deputy Foreign Minister Tsakalotos is now coordinator of a new team negotiating a reforms deal with lenders. While Greece likely has sufficient means to make payments due in May and June, Greek funding needs skyrocket in July and August so the May 11 Eurogroup meeting will be a crucial date for progress on negotiations with the EU. We think the EUR’s funding-currency status implies a changing reaction function to Greek headlines as real yields drive the currency (see chart). A resolution to Greek uncertainty is likely to boost global risk appetite and weigh on the EUR. For EURUSD, the most likely catalyst for a move lower to our 1.04 target will be stronger US data not eurozone stress. We remain short EURUSD and expect the 1.09-1.10 area to continue to provide strong resistance. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
سيتى بنك
Long USDCHF @ 0.9650 Stop at 0.9494 Take profit at 0.9994 |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
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رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
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دويتشه بنك عن تطورات الاوضاع اليونانية Three new developments A few more weeks have passed since our last update on Greece with little change to the status quo: stalled negotiations, an ongoing drain to the Greek government's cash position, and persistent pressure on the Greek banking system. Last Friday's Eurogroup publicly confirmed this lack of progress, attributed to both procedural difficulties and more importantly large gaps on substance. Despite this, we consider three recent developments in domestic Greek politics as finally turning a little more positive. First, opinion polls* have started to turn. After the first few weeks' honeymoon period, the electorate is turning more cautious on the administration's negotiating strategy, reflected in declining approval ratings for both the government and PM Tsipras himself. Most significantly, even as tensions rise, polls show continued and overwhelming public support for a European solution: between "rupture" or "agreement", opinion polls consistently point to more than 70% support for the latter. These trends matter because the government's political narrative has been strongly reliant on a perception of broad popular backing. As approval ratings decline, accompanied by a desire for a "European solution", so does the pressure on the government. The second development is that the government's negotiating team has been re-shuffled. Talks have suffered from the Greek government's lack of negotiating experience as well as persistent operational difficulties: the mission heads of the three institutions (formerly Troika) have been negotiating at arms' length from Brussels or Paris, with the technical teams in Athens facing ongoing difficulties in their access to data and line ministries. Officials more closely aligned to moderate deputy Prime Minister Dragasakis (including Oxford-educated deputy foreign minister Tsakalotos) have now been given a greater role, and the overall team has been expanded in size. These changes may help negotiations, but are not a game-changer: the biggest obstacle to an agreement is the distance in matters of substance, most notably collective wage bargaining, pensions, and fiscal measures for this year. Still, the change after intense pressures from Europe at the margin signals a move towards a more moderate direction, at least in terms of approach. Third, and most importantly, PM Tsipras gave a wide-ranging interview to a Greek TV news channel yesterday evening. The deadlock in terms of sticking points was confirmed, yet the PM's statements on the government's negotiating strategy were more important. When asked on the way forward if an agreement violating electoral promises is required, the Prime Minister signaled that a referendum would be his preferred route, ruling out a general election. We consider this important for two reasons. First, it signals that an agreement that crosses the government's red lines is likely being actively discussed. Second, this is the first time that the PM has provided what we consider to be an internally consistent strategy in breaking the current deadlock. [/COLOR] |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
دويتشه بنك عن البيانات الامريكية الصادرة غدا الاربعاء FOMC to look through weak Q1 output given sturdy income growth __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____________ Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 148/04/2014. Wednesday Release Forecast Previous Consensus 8:30 am Real GDP (Adv Q1 15): +0.7% +2.2% +1.0% GDP deflator: +0.5% +0.1% +0.5% 10:00 am Pending home sales (Mar): +1.0% +3.1% +1.0% Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Commentary for Wednesday: The initial print on Q1 real GDP is released this morning. These figures are highly preliminary and prone to massive revisions. Last year, the first reading on Q1 output was reported at 0.1%, only to be revised down to -1.0% one month later and then to -2.9% one month after that. Since then, Q1 2014 real GDP growth has been revised further to show a -2.1% decline. However, the figures are susceptible to further revision this July, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the annual benchmark revision. History appears to be repeating, as we project just a 0.7% increase in Q1 2015 real GDP, but the risk is that it is even weaker. In our view, the economy had to deal with more adverse shocks this year relative to last. In addition to the unusually harsh winter weather, the economy had to contend with a much stronger dollar, a sharp plunge in energy capex and the West Coast port slowdown. Despite all this, employment was relatively robust last quarter, growing at a 2.2% annualized rate. This will likely be the second-consecutive quarter in which payroll growth has outpaced GDP, which has not occurred since Q2/Q3 2006. It is possible that GDP growth (specifically productivity) is being understated, because the income side of the economy has not experienced the same degree of weakness evident in the output figures. The chart below shows the annualized changes in real gross domestic income (GDI) compared to real GDP. We only focus on 2014, because the GDI data were distorted in 2013 by a change in tax policy. In Q1 2014, GDI declined -0.7% compared to a -2.1% drop in GDP. In Q2, GDI rose 4.1% versus 4.6%; in Q3, GDI was up 5.2% compared to 5.0% for GDP and then in Q4, GDI increased 3.2%, one full percentage point faster than GDP. Over the full year, GDI rose on average 50 basis points more than GDP. In our view, the GDI data are a better proxy of underlying economic activity than the GDP figures because the former are derived from withheld income tax receipts, which do not get revised. To be sure, the stronger 2014 GDI numbers are, on the surface, more consistent with the underlying trend in the labor market, which generated 3.1 million jobs last year. If we are to believe the expenditures figures, this would mean that productivity growth was unusually weak. It seems unlikely that companies would hire so many unproductive workers. Unfortunately, the GDI data have displayed the same pattern of seasonal softness as GDP, with a relatively weak Q1 followed by strength thereafter. This is another reason Fed policymakers will look through Q1 2015 GDP data, which will be evident in this afternoon’s FOMC statement. |
رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
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