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ابو سلمان 666 29-04-2015 01:30 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
جزاك الله خيرا اخي ونسأل الله لك التوفيق والربح الوفير الى الأمام

Зиюс 29-04-2015 08:56 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Modariba (المشاركة 794501)
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله

مجهود كبير اخي

جزاك الله عنا خيرا

اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة ابو سلمان 666 (المشاركة 794551)
جزاك الله خيرا اخي ونسأل الله لك التوفيق والربح الوفير الى الأمام

شكرا لكم و تمنياتى لكم بمزيد من الارباح

لا ترددوا فى الاستفسار عن ايه بيانات فى مشاركاتى

Зиюс 29-04-2015 10:03 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

بنك أر بى اس حول الفيدرالى اليوم
The FOMC decision on Wednesday will include a rate decision along with a post-decision
press release but the FOMC will not release new forecasts this week nor will Fed Chair
Yellen give a post decision press conference. In the end, we don’t see tomorrow’s
statement as a “game changer” for the USD. There is little doubt that market participants
expect a dovish tone in the statement in light of the further moderation in economic
indicators since the FOMC last met, and we agree. With the rates market pricing the first
full rate hike out of December and the USD Index testing its lowest level since early
March, we see the market as well prepared for a dovish tinge from the FOMC statement.
The FOMC is moving to pure data dependence, and in a data dependent environment the
value of FOMC signaling and communication is diminished because the FOMC appears
less willing to pre-commit to policy. In the end, we think the USD will be driven by the
incoming economic data, including GDP data released just hours before April’s
statement. Our economists are below the consensus looking for a 0.8% q/q annualized
growth rate in the first quarter. Our economists expect a broad based moderation relative
to the fourth quarter, though investment in infrastructure (largely in the energy sector) and
net exports (stronger USD) may be the largest first quarter drags.
We expect a 15bp rate cut and an extension of asset purchases at the Riksbank policy
announcement. Not easing policy further would risk the SEK strengthening and
potentially undoing progress made thus far with respect to returning inflation back to
target. The Board may feel emboldened by signs its policies are working and continue on
the same course, in our view. According to Bloomberg, analysts are fairly evenly split
between expecting an unchanged policy rate and a small cut, while RIBAs suggest
roughly 7bp of easing is priced in. With oil prices still resilient, suggesting Norges Bank
may continue to drag its feet on further easing, we continue to like being long NOK/SEK.
The RBNZ decision is due late in the US afternoon tomorrow (Thursday morning local
time) and after RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott gave surprisingly dovish comments
last week, the stage appears to be set for a more cautious RBNZ, as the Bank may waver
in its estimate of the output gap given the persistent lack of price inflation pressure
despite a strong economy. At the same time, the NZD has remained elevated despite a sharp decline in dairy prices since the Bank last met in March – that may leave the RBNZ scope to step up its rhetoric about a strong currency. With RBA Governor Stevens sounding more neutral on the costs and benefits of a rate cut in Australia given the already high amount of leverage and the RBNZ moving more clearly dovish, relative yields could support a further correction higher in AUD/NZD.
The BCB COPOM decision is also due late in the US afternoon tomorrow, likely after the close. The local rates DI curve is now pricing in +46 bp in the May contract and +34 bp in the June contact. This is slightly lower than the +53 bp and +40 bp hikes priced into the local DI curve one month ago. We expect a +25bp hike in the Selic policy rate to 13.00% in tomorrow's meeting. This is a revision from our initial call for a 50bp hike due to the declining forecasts since the last COPOM meeting for economic activity in 2015 and more recently to the strength of BRL dipping below 2.90. Lower growth should lead to some improvement in the medium term inflation x growth balance. We were also pricing in a final 25bp hike in March to 13.25% ending the tightening cycle, though recent gains in BRL has reduced our conviction for that last move.


Зиюс 29-04-2015 10:04 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


من دويتشه بنك حول الفيدرالى اليوم

Below we summarize our expected changes to the April FOMC statement. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth has stabilized, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators have been mixed, as job gains have slowed but the unemployment rate has remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment has deteriorated, possibly the result of declines in energy-related capital spending. The recovery in the housing sector remains slow and export growth has remained weak. Inflation has stabilized, largely reflecting a modest recovery in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. At this time, the Committee has not decided on the timing of the initial increase in the target range.


Зиюс 29-04-2015 10:05 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

التحديث اليومى للصفقات من بنك كريدى سويس
EURUSD: Flat, sell at 1.1050, stop/reverse above 1.1115 for 1.0660.
 USDJPY: Long at 118.75, stop/reverse below 118.15, for 120.30.
 GBPUSD: Squared a long at 1.5332. Buy on a dip to 1.5275, stop
below 1.5177 for 1.5550.
 USDCHF: Long at .9530, stop/reverse below .9447, for .9790.
 AUDUSD: Long took profit at .7914/39. Buy again on dip to .7945, stop
below .7858 for .8230.
 NZDUSD: Short at .7670, stop/reverse above .7745, for .7425.
 USDCAD: Short at 1.2250, stop above 1.2330, for 1.2005.
 EURJPY: Flat. Sell again at 130.70, stop above 131.88 for 127.50.
 EURGBP: Short at .7350, stop above .7440, for .7015.


Зиюс 29-04-2015 10:06 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


التحديث اليومى للصفقات من يو بى اس

EURUSD Sell 1.0985/05, stop above 1.1051, target 1.0860/50
EURCHF Play 1.0465 - 1.0510 range
USDCHF Buy 0.9550/30, stop below 0.9490, target 0.9630/50
EURJPY Buy dips to 130.00/20, stops below 129.80, target 130.80
USDJPY Buy dips to 118.50/70, stops below 118.40, target 119.20
EURGBP Sell 0.7150, stop above 0.7180, target 0.7100
GBPUSD Sell 1.5370, stop above 1.5410, target 1.5280
XAUUSD Play 1200 - 1220 range


K. Samuel 29-04-2015 04:34 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اشكرك اخى Зиюс على هذا المجهود المبذول
وفقك الله على قدر حبك لنشر الخير بين اخوتك فى المنتدى
الله يوفقك انت والجميع

Зиюс 29-04-2015 11:24 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


شوية تشارتات من كريدى سويس

http://s4.postimg.org/90xej4n71/cs1.png

http://s2.postimg.org/8z0xtjdsp/cs2.png

http://s1.postimg.org/mv56ygsf3/cs3.png

http://s9.postimg.org/8whshui73/cs4.png


Зиюс 29-04-2015 11:41 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


قراءة رابو بنك لنتائج اجتماع الفيدرالى و الناتج الاجمالى الأمريكى اليوم

Balanced assessment
 Today, the FOMC had to acknowledge that economic growth slowed during the winter months. The pace of job gains moderated, the unemployment rate remained steady, and a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined, business fixed investment softened and exports declined. The FOMC also repeated that the recovery in the housing sector remained slow.
 However, the FOMC also added that the slowdown was in part reflecting transitory factors and that households’ real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high.
 In other words, the FOMC does expect a reacceleration after the disappointing first quarter, because the impact of transitory factors such as the weather and port strikes will fade. What’s more, household incomes and consumer sentiment may boost personal consumption growth. However, the FOMC also acknowledges that the slowdown is only in part caused by temporary factors. A factor that will continue to play a role after the winter is the appreciation of the US dollar that we have seen in the last 12 months and that has become a headwind for US exporters: a year ago, the EUR/USD stood at 1.38, while today it is 1.11.
 The Fed’s words on inflation were largely repetitive with inflation continuing to run below target, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low, but survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. However, the FOMC did add that inflation is running below target also because of decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Note that this is also a result of the dollar appreciation.
 All’n all, the FOMC statement gave a balanced assessment of the current economic slowdown and the Committee remains very much in a data-dependent mode. However, the balanced and cautious tone in the statement is a far cry from the optimism and (over)confidence that we have seen in previous statements. This suggests that the large majority of doves in the Committee is in no hurry to hike and instead is waiting for solid evidence that the economic recovery can actually deal with a rate hike.
Don’t shoot yourself in the foot
 What does this mean going forward? The Fed’s downgraded economic assessment came after the release of Q1 GDP growth earlier today, which turned out even lower than expected: 0.2% quarter-on-quarter at an annualized rate is close to an economic standstill. The slowdown in personal consumption to 1.9% and residential investment to 1.3% was accompanied by an outright 3.4% contraction in business investment and a negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth of 1.25%. This suggests that we cannot attribute the entire GDP growth slowdown to the weather. The appreciation of the US dollar in recent months is undermining the international competitiveness of US exporters and reducing their incentives to invest. In addition, the decline in oil prices has reduced the incentives for investment in the energy sector more specifically. These factors will continue to play a role after the winter, so it may take some time before we see the US economy in full swing again.
 The impact of the dollar appreciation is not only holding back economic growth, but also core inflation. Ironically, the strength of the dollar is for a large part caused by expectations of the Fed’s monetary tightening. What’s more, an actual rate hike could lead to further appreciation, giving US exporters hardly any time to adjust to their loss in competitiveness and keeping down core inflation. A premature rate hike would slow down the return of inflation and unemployment to their targets. Therefore, we continue to expect the Fed to delay the first hike to the final quarter of the year.


Зиюс 29-04-2015 11:42 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


قراءة بنك باركليز لنتائج اجتماع الفيدرالى و الناتج الاجمالى الأمريكى اليوم

"As we expected, the Federal Reserve left its policy stance unchanged at the April FOMC meeting. The Fed removed the phrase “the committee judges that an increase in the target federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting” from the statement and did not replace it with any particular reference to calendar time. In our view, the lack of any specific calendar time suggests June will be a “live” meeting, where rate hike deliberations will begin in more earnest. Our view remains that September is a more likely time for the first rate hike, but we expect several on the committee to argue for a rate hike in June, including Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who is a voting member in 2015. Fed guidance about rate hikes after mid-year has been a staple of recent FOMC communications, and we read the statement as consistent with this messaging"

Зиюс 29-04-2015 11:43 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة K. Samuel (المشاركة 794768)
اشكرك اخى Зиюс على هذا المجهود المبذول
وفقك الله على قدر حبك لنشر الخير بين اخوتك فى المنتدى
الله يوفقك انت والجميع

العفو و تمنياتى لك و للجميع مزيد من الأرباح و النجاح :)

Зиюс 30-04-2015 10:20 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

المركزى السويسرى خسر 29.3 مليار فرنك فى تداولات الفوركس وحدها من اجمالى خسار 41.1 مليار فرنك فى تداول الأدوات المالية خلال الربع الاول هذا العام






Зиюс 30-04-2015 10:23 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

صفقات بنك يو بى اس لهذا اليوم كانت

EURUSD Sell 1.1120/30 with stop above 1.1175, target 1.1020/30
EURCHF Play 1.0440 - 1.0510 range
USDCHF Sell 0.9450/60 with tight stop above 0.9490, target 0.9400
EURJPY Sell rally to 131.70/90, stops above 132.00, target 131.00
USDJPY Sell rally to 118.70/90, stops above 119.10, target 118.00
EURGBP Sell 0.7200, stop above 0.7225, target 0.7100
GBPUSD Sell towards 1.5500, stop above 1.5550, target 1.5400
XAUUSD Play 1200 - 1220 range


Зиюс 30-04-2015 10:28 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


صفقات كريدى سويس النهاردة كانت
 EURUSD: Long. Add at 1.0985, stop below 1.0960, for 1.1445.
 USDJPY: Long at 118.75, stop/reverse below 118.15, for 120.30.
 GBPUSD: Go long at 1.5350, stop below 1.5262 for 1.5555.
 USDCHF: Short, add at .9480, stop above .9505, for .9075.
 AUDUSD: Go long at .7925, stop below .7858, for .8230.
 NZDUSD: Short at .7670, stop/reverse above .7745, for .7425.
 USDCAD: Covered a short from 1.2250 at 1.2005 target. Try a long at
1.1988, stop/reverse below 1.1933, for 1.2195.
 EURJPY: Flat, buy at 131.10, stop below 130.70, for 135.00.
 EURGBP: Short at .7350, stop moved down above .7254, for.7015.


Зиюс 01-05-2015 08:42 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
تشارت جميل و بسيط من سوستيه جنرال

اليورو دولار فريم الشهر
http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430458941.png

Зиюс 01-05-2015 08:45 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

تحديث توصيات كريدى سويس النهاردة
 EURUSD: Long. Add at 1.0985, stop below 1.0960, for 1.1445.
 USDJPY: Long at 118.75, stop/reverse below 118.15, for 120.30.
 GBPUSD: Long on the dip to 1.5350, stop below 1.5262 for 1.5555.
 USDCHF: Short, add at .9480, stop above .9505, for .9075.
 AUDUSD: Long at .7925, stop below .7858, for .8230.
 NZDUSD: Short at .7670, stop/reverse above .7745, for .7425.
 USDCAD: Covered a short from 1.2250 at 1.2005 target. Try a long at
1.1988, stop/reverse below 1.1933, for 1.2195.
 EURJPY: Flat, buy at 131.10, stop below 130.70, for 135.00.
 EURGBP: Short from .7350 stopped. Retry a short at .7385,
stop/reverse above .7429 for .7120.



Зиюс 01-05-2015 03:33 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
EURCAD و صفقتنا المفعلة حاليا عليه

http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430483513.png

حققت الصفقة +450 نقطة

نقوم بتحريك الاستوب الى ما فوق نقطة الدخول + 100 نقطة

Зиюс 02-05-2015 10:13 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


تحليل AUDUSD باستخدام موجات اليوت من بنك مورجان ستانلى

http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430594009.png



Зиюс 03-05-2015 08:20 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

تحليل الوضع الاقتصادى الحالى للصين من كومارتس بنك " فيديو"
http://www.edge-cdn.net/video_853506?playerskin=41866


Зиюс 03-05-2015 11:27 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

فى الفترة الحالية بنوك كتير خسرت صفقات شراء الدولار الامريكى و خرجوا منها على خسارة الأسبوع اللى فات و على رأسهم بنك باركليز

انك تتعلم من أخطائك ده شئ رائع و انك تتعلم من أخطاء غيرك ده شئ عظيم

ناس كتير بتسأل البنوك بتشتغل ازاى أو بيقولوا ان البنوك بيتشتغل زى كده و كده و هما لا يدرون عنهم شيئا

دى توصية بنك بى ان بى باريبا لبيع EURUSD يوم 25 مارس طبعا ضربت الاستوب الاسبوع اللى فات


We are establishing a short EURUSD trade recommendation at 1.0990, targeting a
retreat to 1.04 and set our stop at 1.1165.
The USD has retreated significantly in the aftermath of last week’s Fed statement,
following US front-end yields sharply lower as markets focused on the dovish shift
in Fed projections. However, we believe the liquidation of USD positions so far has
largely been confined to shorter-term market participants and momentum traders.
Longer term oriented macro accounts are unlikely to have capitulated on their high
conviction bullish USD views. Our positioning indicators suggest EURUSD
positioning has not become stretched, and presumably positions have been
reduced even further in this latest push higher. Moreover, we believe eurozone
investors are likely to remain reliable sellers of EUR, as low nominal rates at home
and rising inflation expectations force a shift in asset allocation into foreign assets.
We also see scope for markets to rebuild pricing for Fed policy tightening. In the
aftermath of the Fed decision, a first rate hike is no longer fully priced until October
and only one hike is fully priced by year-end. The shift came in reaction to the
revision lower for Fed rate, GDP and long-term unemployment projections.
However, with most FOMC members still projecting two rate hikes before year-end,
we think it will take a significant deterioration in labour market data or further
weakness in inflation to prevent earlier tightening. We suspect Fed speakers and
data in the weeks ahead are likely to guide markets back to pricing for September
lift off. While the Fed does appear to be more sensitive to currency market
dynamics, we think a move to our target of 1.04 in EURUSD would not prevent
policy tightening in September.

حد يقدر يعرف ان كانوا هما خطأ و ايه الخطأ اللى عملوه ؟!!!!

karimetrim 03-05-2015 11:27 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
و لكن اخي من اين تاتي بالتوصيات يرجى وضع روابط

Зиюс 03-05-2015 11:34 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة karimetrim (المشاركة 796749)
و لكن اخي من اين تاتي بالتوصيات يرجى وضع روابط





جميع المشاركات هنا من مواقع البنوك مباشرة و هى تتطلب الاشتراك و تسجيل الدخول

رابط موقع الدراسات و الابحاث و خدمات كبار المستثمرين من بنك بى ان باريبا
Login / Register



بعد تسجيل الدخول تجد جميع الخدمات و التوصيات متاحة

تحياتى لك و تمنياتى بمزيد من الارباح :)

karimetrim 03-05-2015 11:40 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Зиюс (المشاركة 796755)




جميع المشاركات هنا من مواقع البنوك مباشرة و هى تتطلب الاشتراك و تسجيل الدخول

رابط موقع الدراسات و الابحاث و خدمات كبار المستثمرين من بنك بى ان باريبا
Login / Register



بعد تسجيل الدخول تجد جميع الخدمات و التوصيات متاحة

تحياتى لك و تمنياتى بمزيد من الارباح :)

مشكور جزالك الله خيرا
اخي من خلال تجربتك ما نسبة نجاح التوصيات

Зиюс 03-05-2015 11:50 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة karimetrim (المشاركة 796758)
مشكور جزالك الله خيرا
اخي من خلال تجربتك ما نسبة نجاح التوصيات



تفضل أخى الفاضل

أداء واحدة من المحافظ الاستثمارية لبنك مورجان ستانلى بداية من شهر يناير 2007 و حتى شهر أبريل 2015
http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430642943.png

حجم الصفقة الواحدة هو 10 مليون دولار فى الغالب

احكم بنفسك

المصدر : بنك مورجان ستانلى و الرابط:


Email Authentication
شخصيا لا أستخدم توصيات البنوك للتداول المباشر و انما استفيد منها بطرق أخرى متعددة






karimetrim 03-05-2015 12:00 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Зиюс (المشاركة 796763)


تفضل أخى الفاضل

أداء واحدة من المحافظ الاستثمارية لبنك مورجان ستانلى بداية من شهر يناير 2007 و حتى شهر أبريل 2015
http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1430642943.png

حجم الصفقة الواحدة هو 10 مليون دولار فى الغالب

احكم بنفسك

المصدر : بنك مورجان ستانلى و الرابط:


Email Authentication
شخصيا لا أستخدم توصيات البنوك للتداول المباشر و انما استفيد منها بطرق أخرى متعددة






مشكور جزاك الله خير

Зиюс 03-05-2015 12:04 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة karimetrim (المشاركة 796771)
مشكور جزاك الله خير

العفو .. لآ تتردد فى الاستفسار عن أى شئ :)

Зиюс 03-05-2015 12:11 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
اقتباس:

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Зиюс (المشاركة 796748)

فى الفترة الحالية بنوك كتير خسرت صفقات شراء الدولار الامريكى و خرجوا منها على خسارة الأسبوع اللى فات و على رأسهم بنك باركليز

انك تتعلم من أخطائك ده شئ رائع و انك تتعلم من أخطاء غيرك ده شئ عظيم

ناس كتير بتسأل البنوك بتشتغل ازاى أو بيقولوا ان البنوك بيتشتغل زى كده و كده و هما لا يدرون عنهم شيئا

دى توصية بنك بى ان بى باريبا لبيع EURUSD يوم 25 مارس طبعا ضربت الاستوب الاسبوع اللى فات


We are establishing a short EURUSD trade recommendation at 1.0990, targeting a
retreat to 1.04 and set our stop at 1.1165.
The USD has retreated significantly in the aftermath of last week’s Fed statement,
following US front-end yields sharply lower as markets focused on the dovish shift
in Fed projections. However, we believe the liquidation of USD positions so far has
largely been confined to shorter-term market participants and momentum traders.
Longer term oriented macro accounts are unlikely to have capitulated on their high
conviction bullish USD views. Our positioning indicators suggest EURUSD
positioning has not become stretched, and presumably positions have been
reduced even further in this latest push higher. Moreover, we believe eurozone
investors are likely to remain reliable sellers of EUR, as low nominal rates at home
and rising inflation expectations force a shift in asset allocation into foreign assets.
We also see scope for markets to rebuild pricing for Fed policy tightening. In the
aftermath of the Fed decision, a first rate hike is no longer fully priced until October
and only one hike is fully priced by year-end. The shift came in reaction to the
revision lower for Fed rate, GDP and long-term unemployment projections.
However, with most FOMC members still projecting two rate hikes before year-end,
we think it will take a significant deterioration in labour market data or further
weakness in inflation to prevent earlier tightening. We suspect Fed speakers and
data in the weeks ahead are likely to guide markets back to pricing for September
lift off. While the Fed does appear to be more sensitive to currency market
dynamics, we think a move to our target of 1.04 in EURUSD would not prevent
policy tightening in September.

حد يقدر يعرف ان كانوا هما خطأ و ايه الخطأ اللى عملوه ؟!!!!

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Зиюс 03-05-2015 06:30 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 
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نظرة على سوق العملات للأسبوع القادم " يبدأ من الغد" من أحد مديرى صناديق التحوط


Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.

Short GBP/USD. Reversal – MT is a normal bull. But we have a strong bearish pin candle on the weekly chart, heavily selling on negative data and the election coming up.
Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Range continues to hold.
Short AUD/USD Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Bearish weekly pin candle off resistance, and selling on positive news suggests the opportunities are short. Will depend a bit on the RBA though.
Long EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. I think better opportunities on the crosses this week.
Short NZD/USD. Reversal– MT is sideways normal. Selling signals on daily and weekly charts.
Short USD/CHF. Short – MT is bear normal. Watch out for a bullish day on Monday in combo with Fridays spinning top.
Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is bear normal. But turning sideways normal so prefer to wait.
Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is bear normal. But weekly signals are bullish.
Long EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is fast bull. Think there may be more upside here.
Short AUD/JPY. MT is sideways volatile. Got the short reversal off the edge we have been waiting for.
Waiting NZD/JPY – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is bull normal. But careful after a bearish pin candle and the election this week.
Long EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. This could be a good play.
Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is just bull normal. But reversing and the election coming up makes me careful.
Long EUR/NZD. Trend- MT is fast bull. Could be a decent buy the dip opportunity.
Long AUD/NZD. Trend– MT is normal bull. But the pin candle on daily chart on Thursday means trade with caution.
Long EUR/AUD. Reversal – MT is fast bull. Great reversal pattern on Wednesday provided a good buying opportunity.
Short GBP/AUD. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Bearish engulfing off resistance provides a low conviction short
Waiting AUD/CAD. Trend– MT is sideways normal. Wait.
Short GBP/CAD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Nice candle stick patterns indicating a selling opportunity here.
Waiting EUR/CAD. Trend -MT is bear volatile. Wait and see.




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Зиюс 03-05-2015 06:56 PM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


تعليق بنك أر بى اس على الأحداث المهمة للأسبوع القادم " بداية من الغد"

United States
 At least for the USD, April showers have tended to yield May flowers in recent
years. After falling in six consecutive Aprils including 2015, the DXY has
rebounded strongly in each of the past five years in May, though developments
in the Euro-area periphery crisis and ECB policy action have played a role in
several of those May USD rebounds. The moderation in US data appears to
have been more broad-based than most anticipated, and the recent sell-off in
the USD likely reflects in part a loss of confidence in the view that the economy
rebounds in the spring. Our economists expect a solid bounce-back in US April
employment, which could be a positive for the reeling USD. We remain
strategically positive on the USD, largely because we think the US data will
indeed begin to recover as soon as next week and that the FOMC will ultimately
gain reasonable confidence needed to hike the Fed Funds rate later this year
(base case September).
 Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak on a panel alongside IMF head
Lagarde. The FOMC statement noted a downgrade in the recent data but did not
clearly indicate that the FOMC sees new downside risks to the outlook, noting
that the weakness in the economy is likely due in part to transitory factors. Chair
Yellen highlights the plethora of FOMC speakers next week that may flesh out
the current views on the FOMC in greater detail than did the statement.
 The US trade balance for March is due, and with a heightened focus on the
strength of the USD and its impact on the economy we anticipate the monthly
trade figures should garner interest. These will be the first trade figures released
since the resolution of the West Coast port strike.
Euro-area
 For EUR/USD, the short-term unwind of carry positions funded in EUR along
with a further sell-off in European fixed income may prove a larger driver of the
cross than the US data. That may keep EUR/USD sticky even if the US data improve, though we agree with our Rates Research Team that thinks there are plenty of reasons to fade the correction in European FI. We see the risks around European QE as on the upside rather than on the downside – i.e. higher risk of more bond purchases than an early taper, despite recent upside in data. At least in the near-term, a sticky EUR/USD may make GBP or JPY shorts more attractive as ways to express a stronger USD view on more positive US data.
 The ECB has long noted that the decline in EUR/USD was related to a divergent stance in monetary policy outlooks, as the ECB is actively easing policy via its asset purchases and the FOMC still signalling that rate hikes are likely later this year. The trade-weighted EUR has rebounded off the lows but remains very low on a historical trade-weighted basis, thus it is perhaps unlikely that the ECB speakers, including vice Chair Constancio next week, begin to more forcefully talk down the EUR. Nevertheless, this risk will likely increase should the EUR positioning squeeze continue.
 On the data calendar, services and composite PMIs across the Euro-area are released and German trade and retail sales figures for March are due as well.
UK
 The UK general election on May 7th appears likely to result in a hung parliament, with neither Labour nor the Conservatives likely to secure a majority. We think the risks to the UK economic outlook lie on the downside relative to consensus, and the political gridlock that may result could weigh on investment intentions and business confidence. That risk may be under-appreciated and could keep the Bank of England more accommodative for longer. In their preview, our economists cite the 10PM local time exit polls as potentially crucial, given the accuracy seen in exit polling in the previous two elections. (Note – our economists preview is a product of Independent Research) The April services PMI is the key UK data point released next week.
Australia and New Zealand
 The RBA has suggested repeatedly that “further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead”, which is a surprisingly blunt assessment from the central bank and suggests easing is likely in the coming months. Still, in an April 21st speech, Governor Stevens expressed a lessened enthusiasm about the value of additional rate cuts given the already high level of leverage in the economy. That, paired with inflation holding essentially steady in 1Q 2015 (and in line with the RBA’s last forecast round), stronger than expected employment data in March, and a small pickup in iron ore prices makes this week’s RBA decision a close call. The recent data may support a wait-and-see stance to assess the housing market in light of December macro prudential measures, but the decision accompanies a forecast update in the new Statement on Monetary Policy, a 25bp cut at this meeting is certainly not out of the question. The Australia data calendar also includes April employment data.
 The RBNZ delivered a more clearly dovish statement following their April meeting, suggesting that rate hikes are not currently being considered. Importantly, however, the statement does not suggest that rate cuts are being considered at this time either, instead saying that it would be appropriate “if demand weakens, and wage and price-setting outcomes settle at levels lower than is consistent with the inflation target.” First quarter employment statistics are released next week and with a direct reference to wage inflation as one of the factors the RBNZ is watching, the quarterly average hourly earnings should
be a focus. The y/y rate of average hourly earnings, at 3.0% y/y as of 4Q 2014,
is just below the average rate since 1990 (3.2%) but well below the 5-6% y/y
levels seen in 2005-2008.

Зиюс 04-05-2015 07:56 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


رؤية و تحليل بنك باركليز لهذا الاسبوع بالاضافة الى صفقة الأسبوع بنقاط الدخول و الاهداف و الوقف
USD: Back in business

Improving US data are likely to halt recent USD weakness and support a return of trend USD appreciation. Disappointing US data and dovish FOMC March forecast revisions, in the context of extremely long USD positioning, have dragged the trade-weighted USD 3.5% lower from its mid-March highs and moderated market expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle (Figure 1). While last week’s Q1 GDP growth of just 0.2% q/q epitomised the recent activity weakness, our US economists think that much of this is related to bad weather and some of the lost output should be made up in Q2 (Barclays’ forecast: 3.0% q/q saar). In the context of continued improvement in the US labor market, which is likely to be confirmed by this Friday’s April US labor market report, we think that the Fed is likely to raise rates at its September meeting (less than 50% priced) and USD appreciation should shortly resume (Figure 2). We forecast April NFP to rise by 250k (consensus: 230k), the unemployment rate to fall to 5.4% (consensus: 5.4%) and average hourly earnings of 2.4% y/y (consensus: 2.3 %).

Central bank action will likely continue to be an important driver of currency performance. Solid euro area economic data and incrementally positive news related to Greece’s negotiations with its creditors contributed to a partial unwind of ECB QE-related trades last week. EURUSD and core euro area bond yields moved higher and European equities fell. However, there remains a particularly large amount of slack in the euro area economy and the ECB is committed to a long period of low or negative nominal yields. The combination of these factors should keep real returns to capital poor and keep downward pressure on the EUR. Our rates strategists think that the recent rise in euro area yields represent a healthy positioning/liquidity-led correction rather than a fundamental change (Global Rates Weekly: Reality check, 30 April 2015).

Elsewhere, the recent recovery of oil prices has allowed monetary policy makers to pause for thought but small open-economy central banks continue to face challenging outlooks that likely require further adjustment in policy settings. After hiking 100bp through the first half of last year, the RBNZ last week adopted an easing bias in response to extremely low core inflation, in part driven by unjustified NZD strength. The AUD is likely to come under downward pressure this week. We expect the RBA to cut its policy rate by 25bp at its Tuesday meeting (market pricing: 17bp of cuts) to 2.00%, given a weak outlook for business investment and the widening gap between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, a message which is likely to be reiterated in Friday’s (quarterly) RBA Statement on Monetary Policy. As such, we recommend being short AUDUSD this week, a trade which is also supported by strong seasonal selling of AUDUSD in May (see below).

Thursday’s UK general election should weigh on GBP as political uncertainty is confirmed. The latest seat projections (e.g. those from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov) continue to suggest that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome and that neither of the major parties will be able to form a majority with less than two coalition partners. Exit polls will be published once polling booths close at 10pm UK time on Thursday and Press Association forecasts suggest that most of the official individual constituency results will be released by 6am London time on Friday and all results should be known by early Friday afternoon. However, clarity is unlikely. The results are likely to confirm a highly uncertain political picture and support our view of a prolonged period of coalition negotiation (see Global Economics Weekly, 1 May 2015). This political uncertainty should be compounded by fundamental differences between Labor and Conservative views on important institutional risks, EU membership and Scotland’s independence. However, GBP relative implied volatility remains around the same level it was prior to the more-certain 2010 election and represents a mispricing of upcoming political risk, in our view.

Trade for the week ahead: Short AUDUSD

An under-priced RBA rate cut and strong US labor market report should push AUDUSD lower this week. In addition, our technical strategists are bearish AUDUSD. Last Wednesday’s topping candle has capped recent corrective gains and was confirmed by subsequent selling into the end of last week (Figure 3). Seasonal studies (see Technical Strategy: May Seasonal Chart Pack) highlight May as being the most negative for AUDUSD versus its major currency peers and the most bearish month of the year for AUDUSD as measured by median and mean returns (Figure 4). This adds to our conviction for a move lower towards initial targets in the 0.7680 area. A move below the 0.7530 range lows would signal further downside towards our greater targets near 0.7100.

What to look for next week


USD: Data to support a reversal of recent USD weakness
After the winter slump, a more constructive economy and rising inflation pressures are starting to be priced by US fixed income markets. The recent backup in US rates has been driven mainly by higher real rates but also higher inflation breakevens. Of the roughly 18bp move in 5y5y nominal rates since mid April about 11bp has been in 5y5y real rates and the remaining 7bp the 5y5y inflation breakeven. A Fed that sees the Q1 slowdown as transitory amid rising inflation pressures (jobless claims at 15 year lows and a rebound in the employment cost) and too little priced by way of rate hikes in 2015 (a little less than one priced by December and only a 36% probability priced for September), implies that risk reward favors higher rates and a stronger USD. We believe that data this week could serve as such a trigger.

Payrolls data will be the key event on Friday. We are looking for a 250k headline print, significantly above the consensus forecast of 230k. Furthermore, we expect the tightening in labor markets to continue with the unemployment rate declining to 5.4% (c.f. 5.4%) and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (c.f. 0.2% m/m). Other data to look for include the factory orders (Monday), ISM non-manufacturing index (Tuesday) and unit labor costs (Wednesday). We are slightly below consensus on the factory orders report (2% m/m increase vs. c.f. 2.2%) and ISM non-manufacturing (56.0 vs. c.f. 56.2) but expecting an above consensus print for unit labor costs (3.8% q/q vs. c.f. 3.6%).

EUR: Activity data to weigh on the currency amid continued Greece concern
Euro area data this week are likely to weigh on the EUR amid continued Greece concern ahead of upcoming payments (see Macro Daily Focus: Scenarios for Greece, 27 April 2015). We forecast final April euro area manufacturing and services PMIs (Monday and Wednesday) to be confirmed at 51.9 and 53.7, respectively, in line with consensus (see Figure 5 for individual country forecasts). In Germany, factory orders (Thursday) are likely to increase 0.5% m/m in March (consensus: +1.5%), while industrial production is also likely to disappoint (Barclays: -0.2% m/m; consensus: +0.4%). We forecast similar disappointments in French (Thursday) and Italian (Friday) March industrial production of -0.4% m/m (consensus: 0.1%) and 0.2% m/m (consensus: 0.3%), respectively.

GBP: UK general election to weigh on GBP as political uncertainty is confirmed
As noted above, Thursday’s UK general election should weigh on GBP as political uncertainty is confirmed. The latest seat projections (e.g. those from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov) continue to suggest that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome and that neither of the major parties will be able to form a majority with less than two coalition partners. Exit polls will be published once official polling booths close at 10pm UK time on Thursday and Press Association forecasts suggest most of the official individual constituency results will be released by 6am London time on Friday and all results should be known by early Friday afternoon. However, clarity is unlikely. The results are likely to confirm a highly uncertain political picture and support our view of a prolonged period of coalition negotiation (see Global Economics Weekly, 1 May 2015). This political uncertainty should be compounded by fundamental differences between Labor and Conservative views on important institutional risks, EU membership and Scotland’s independence. However, GBP relative implied volatility remains around the same level it was prior to the more-certain 2010 election and represents a mispricing of upcoming political risk, in our view. Elsewhere, April construction and services PMIs will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, likely providing further downward pressure on GBP. The consensus forecast is expecting the construction PMI to drop to 57.3 from 57.8 while the services PMI is likely to decline to 57.5 (consensus: 58.6; last: 58.9).

CAD: Labor market data in focus
A more constructive message from the BoC and a rebound in oil prices has caused the market has mostly price out rate cuts from the BoC over the past two weeks. Economic data remains patchy however, e.g. the RBC manufacturing PMI for April remaining close to its recent low. As such, we believe the short squeeze in the CAD is over and the market will re-evaluate any potential future BoC move based on incoming data. Canadian employment data at the end of the week provides one such opportunity. Additionally, we believe a significant re-pricing in the front end of the US rate curve (higher) will likely to push USDCAD higher from current subdued levels.

NOK: Norges on hold for now, upward pressure to the NOK expected in the short-term

We narrowly expect the Norges Bank to keep its deposit rate unchanged (Thursday) and preserve its “wait-and-see” stance. We expect upward pressure to the NOK as a result and a further re-pricing of the short-end of the NOK rates curve. We identify three reasons that support an unchanged outcome at this juncture. Firstly, contrary to our expectations, oil prices have rebounded since the January lows, likely allowing the Norges Bank to maintain its patient stance if it judges that near term risks to output have de-escalated somewhat. Secondly, similar to its March meeting, the Norges Bank will likely be reluctant to cut rates further given growing financial stability concerns, which seem to directly enter the Norges reaction function. Finally, the global easing cycle seems to have paused for now, implying somewhat higher foreign real interest rates compared to the March projections and narrower real interest rate differentials. To the extent this places downward pressure on the NOK going forward, there is likely to be less need for a lower policy rate to ensure monetary conditions remain accommodative. Looking ahead, we still see increased likelihood of a cut in 2015 particularly if Q1 data disappoint current Norges Bank projections (see Norges preview: A complicated reaction function, 1 May 2015 for further details).

SEK: Riksbank executive board meeting and growth indicators to take centre stage

The Riksbank decided to ease policy further last week by expanding the size of its QE program by SEK40-50bn, despite keeping its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% (see Riksbank on hold: Play the range in EURSEK, 29 April 2015). The subsequent SEK appreciation has led several participants to speculate over further action as early as Friday’s meeting of the executive board of the Riksbank. It was in a similar meeting that the Riksbank decided to unexpectedly ease policy in March, on the basis of a strong SEK. Nonetheless, we assign a very low probability to something similar happening next week. Yet, given the Riksbank’s recent rhetoric for a weak SEK, we think further measures, which may include FX interventions, are very likely if SEK sustains a rally in the coming weeks. We expect EURSEK to stay range-bound as the Riksbank likely will respond to unwanted SEK appreciation with further easing, but ECB policies likely will cap EURSEK topside. On the data front, April Manufacturing PMI data (Monday) and Industrial Production data (Tuesday) are likely to gain attention, consistent with our view of solid growth fundamentals.

CHF: Negative prices to persist as FX reserve data to come in focus

CPI inflation data (Friday) will be the next key data point for the CHF and is widely expected to confirm sustained deflationary pressures in Switzerland, owing to an overvalued and still appreciating CHF. Moreover, after having released their Q1 2015 currency allocations last week, the SNB’s April FX reserve data (Thursday) and weekly sight deposits data (Monday) will also likely be closely followed, giving an indication of the level of FX interventions. As we noted in SNB adds pressure on the CHF, 22 April 2015, we re-iterate our view that further measures in the form of FX interventions and further interest rate cuts may be used under a scenario of a sustained CHF rally.

Australia: AUD to underperform as the RBA is likely to cut rates and retain an easing bias
We narrowly expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp to a new record low of 2.00% (Tuesday; market pricing: -17bp; consensus: -25bp). The RBA has a strong easing bias, recently made clear by Governor Stevens’ in a New York speech, and we expect further easing to reflect concern over the investment outlook and the widening gap between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade. We are mindful, though, that the RBA held fire in March and April and that the strength of housing, together with sticky underlying inflation and better labor market data, may give it pause for thought. Regardless, we expect the RBA to retain an easing bias to maintain downward pressure on the exchange rate. The RBA issues an updated Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday and we see some risk that it will trim its outlook for growth given concerns over non-mining investment, while the forecast profile for underlying inflation might be bumped up a little in the near term. Data-wise, we see a solid rise in retail sales in March (Wednesday; Barclays: 0.6%m/m; consensus: 0.4%) and a solid increase in real sales in Q1 (Barclays: 0.7% q/q; consensus: 0.8%). We also anticipate a solid rise in April jobs (Wednesday; Barclays: +20k; consensus: 3k) and steady unemployment (Wednesday; Barclays: 6.1%; consensus: 6.2%) with the March trade deficit narrowing (Tuesday; Barclays and consensus: AUD-1bn; last: AUD-1.2bn) and March building approvals falling further (Monday; Barclays: -3% m/m; consensus: -1.5%).

المصدر : Barclays Live - Login



Зиюс 04-05-2015 08:14 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 


ملاحظات حول الانتخابات البريطانية
Observations on Britains election





Зиюс 04-05-2015 08:24 AM

رد: التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار
 

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