[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6400 resistance last week indicates that whole rise from 1.5343 and that from 1.4230 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5935 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6400 resistance last week indicates that whole rise from 1.5343 and that from 1.4230 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5935 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.