[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF rose to 1.3234 las week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'll see which side EUR/CHF breaks out. Nonetheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF rose to 1.3234 las week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'll see which side EUR/CHF breaks out. Nonetheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.