[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.61 last week and the break of 81.97 resistance turned support dampens the bullish view that the cross has bottomed out earlier at 76.40. Deeper decline will now remain in favor as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds and further fall could now be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.61 last week and the break of 81.97 resistance turned support dampens the bullish view that the cross has bottomed out earlier at 76.40. Deeper decline will now remain in favor as long as 83.09 minor resistance holds and further fall could now be seen towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. Nevertheless, above 83.09 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.