تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment and current rally should now extend further to 1.1 psychological level first. On the downside, however, break of 1.0773 support will indicate short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper retreat would be seen back to 1.0388/0581 support zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.1570. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment and current rally should now extend further to 1.1 psychological level first. On the downside, however, break of 1.0773 support will indicate short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper retreat would be seen back to 1.0388/0581 support zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 1.1 psychological level next. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.1570. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD was held above 0.9453 support and recovers and the development suggests that consolidation from there is still in progress. Intraday bias is turned neutral again and stronger recovery might be seen. But upside is still expected to be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9628) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9453 will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD was held above 0.9453 support and recovers and the development suggests that consolidation from there is still in progress. Intraday bias is turned neutral again and stronger recovery might be seen. But upside is still expected to be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9628) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9453 will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 81.26 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 81.26 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

At this point, GBP/JPY's rebound fro 132.98 is still in favor to continue and intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

At this point, GBP/JPY's rebound fro 132.98 is still in favor to continue and intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay bullish and expect rebound from 122.40 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

With 120.37 minor support intact, current rebound in EUR/JPY is still in favor to continue towards 123.31 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31. But after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

With 120.37 minor support intact, current rebound in EUR/JPY is still in favor to continue towards 123.31 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 123.31. But after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continues to stay in consolidation above 1.2728 and intraday bias remains neutral. Note that with 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continues to stay in consolidation above 1.2728 and intraday bias remains neutral. Note that with 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished at 1.3234. In such case, bias will be back on the downside for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for further rally. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for further rally. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8713 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rally is expected to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.3860 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4772 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But, retreat is expected to be contained above 1.4492 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rally is expected to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.3860 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4772 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But, retreat is expected to be contained above 1.4492 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.6744 temporary top. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.6431 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.6744 temporary top. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.6431 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance and above. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's down trend resumes by taking out 0.8670 today and reaches as low as 0.8644 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. Next. On the upside, above 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's down trend resumes by taking out 0.8670 today and reaches as low as 0.8644 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. Next. On the upside, above 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.