تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's break of 81.26 indicates that recent fall from 85.51 has resumed and intraday bias is now back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and possibly below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's break of 81.26 indicates that recent fall from 85.51 has resumed and intraday bias is now back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and possibly below. On the upside, above 82.76 will suggest that pull back from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 80.50 support intact, we're still favoring the case that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Above 85.51 will target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. However, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. A break of 80.50 will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: April 30


The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.4881 and closed at 1.4803. Overall the bullish technical bias remains strong at least targeting 1.5000. On h4 chart below we can see price also still maintain its current bullish characteristic where the broken resistances (1.4518, 1.4647, 1.4790) become a good supports. 1.4790 is the key intraday support at this phase and as long as price stays above that area my intraday bias remains more to the upside. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.4647 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish outlook should remain intact.



Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: April 30


The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum this week, topped at 1.4881 and closed at 1.4803. Overall the bullish technical bias remains strong at least targeting 1.5000. On h4 chart below we can see price also still maintain its current bullish characteristic where the broken resistances (1.4518, 1.4647, 1.4790) become a good supports. 1.4790 is the key intraday support at this phase and as long as price stays above that area my intraday bias remains more to the upside. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.4647 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish outlook should remain intact.



Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD jumped to as high as 1.4880 last week before making temporary top there and retreats mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But retreat is expected to be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4880 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD jumped to as high as 1.4880 last week before making temporary top there and retreats mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But retreat is expected to be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4880 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rose further to as high as 1.6744 last week and remained strong. Daily MACD's break of down trend line suggests that the pair is gaining momentum again. Hence, while some consolidations might be seen below 1.6744 temporary top initially this week, we'd expect downside to be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD rose further to as high as 1.6744 last week and remained strong. Daily MACD's break of down trend line suggests that the pair is gaining momentum again. Hence, while some consolidations might be seen below 1.6744 temporary top initially this week, we'd expect downside to be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's down trend continued last week and dropped to new record low of 0.8625. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, break of 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's down trend continued last week and dropped to new record low of 0.8625. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, break of 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD soared to another record high of 1.0976 last week and remained firm. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.1 psychological level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to upper channel resistance at 1.1160 next. On the downside, below 1.0862 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0675 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 100 projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD soared to another record high of 1.0976 last week and remained firm. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.1 psychological level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to upper channel resistance at 1.1160 next. On the downside, below 1.0862 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0675 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 100 projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's down trend resumed towards the end of last week by breaking 0.9453 low and reached as low as 0.9445. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. On the upside, break of 0.9757 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's down trend resumed towards the end of last week by breaking 0.9453 low and reached as low as 0.9445. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. On the upside, break of 0.9757 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

Despite brief recovery, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.03 last week and remained weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, break of 82.76 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming or outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

Despite brief recovery, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.03 last week and remained weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, break of 82.76 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming or outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 0.8936 last week, EUR/GBP failed to sustain gain there and retreated. Initial bias will be neutral this week for some consolidations. But we'd continue to favor another rise as long as 0.8739 support holds. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 0.8936 last week, EUR/GBP failed to sustain gain there and retreated. Initial bias will be neutral this week for some consolidations. But we'd continue to favor another rise as long as 0.8739 support holds. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continued to consolidate in range above 127.28 last week. With 1.2971 resistance intact, there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continued to consolidate in range above 127.28 last week. With 1.2971 resistance intact, there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.