تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rebound from 116.46 extended to 121.82 last week but lost momentum since then. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Another rise remains in favor as long as 118.49 minor support holds and above 121.81 will bring another rally to 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rebound from 116.46 extended to 121.82 last week but lost momentum since then. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Another rise remains in favor as long as 118.49 minor support holds and above 121.81 will bring another rally to 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY recovered to 137.01 last week before losing momentum and retreated from there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias will be neutral this week. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. ABove 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY recovered to 137.01 last week before losing momentum and retreated from there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias will be neutral this week. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. ABove 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher earlier today in Asian session, topped at 1.6737 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 1.6649 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.6630/20 support area which could provide a good intraday support. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6550 support area but overall the major scenario remains to the upside, targeting 1.6850 – 1.7000 and any downside pressure at this phase should be seen just as a consolidation/correction movement.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher earlier today in Asian session, topped at 1.6737 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 1.6649 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.6630/20 support area which could provide a good intraday support. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6550 support area but overall the major scenario remains to the upside, targeting 1.6850 – 1.7000 and any downside pressure at this phase should be seen just as a consolidation/correction movement.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish bias on Friday bottomed at 0.8624 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 0.8695. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall the scenario remains strongly to the downside as long as price moves inside the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 0.8746 – 0.8779. On the downside we need a clear break below 0.8624 to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8600 – 0.8500 support area.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish bias on Friday bottomed at 0.8624 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 0.8695. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall the scenario remains strongly to the downside as long as price moves inside the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 0.8746 – 0.8779. On the downside we need a clear break below 0.8624 to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.8600 – 0.8500 support area.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 81.68. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays below 82.00 the overall intraday bias remains to the downside, still targeting 80.85 – 79.80 support area. A clear break above 82.00 could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 82.50/73 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 81.68. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays below 82.00 the overall intraday bias remains to the downside, still targeting 80.85 – 79.80 support area. A clear break above 82.00 could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 82.50/73 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish bias on Friday, slipped below 120.38 but unable to stay below that area so far. Key intraday support provided by the trend line support (white) as you can see on my hourly chart below. A consistent move below 120.38 and violation to the trend line support could continue the bearish pressure testing 118.40/00 support area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 121.00. We need a clear break above that area to keep the bullish outlook intact testing 121.80 – 123.31 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish bias on Friday, slipped below 120.38 but unable to stay below that area so far. Key intraday support provided by the trend line support (white) as you can see on my hourly chart below. A consistent move below 120.38 and violation to the trend line support could continue the bearish pressure testing 118.40/00 support area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 121.00. We need a clear break above that area to keep the bullish outlook intact testing 121.80 – 123.31 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive on Friday. Price slipped below 135.50 but unable to stay below that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 135.90 the intraday bias is more to the downside testing 134.70/20. As long as price moves inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase but would need a consistent movement at least back above 136.00 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 137.00 – 139.67 this week.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive on Friday. Price slipped below 135.50 but unable to stay below that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 135.90 the intraday bias is more to the downside testing 134.70/20. As long as price moves inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase but would need a consistent movement at least back above 136.00 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong testing 137.00 – 139.67 this week.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another new historical high earlier today in Asian session at 1.1009 but corrected lower around 1.0940 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a strong bullish outlook aiming for another new historical high projection around 1.1050 – 1.1100. On the downside, only a clear break below 1.0877 could trigger further significant bearish correction but overall my technical bias remains strongly bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another new historical high earlier today in Asian session at 1.1009 but corrected lower around 1.0940 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price is still in a strong bullish outlook aiming for another new historical high projection around 1.1050 – 1.1100. On the downside, only a clear break below 1.0877 could trigger further significant bearish correction but overall my technical bias remains strongly bullish.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher earlier today in Asian session, topped at 1.4862 but further upside pressure is limited so far. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 1.4881 – 1.4767. The major scenario remains to the upside but need a clear break above 1.4881 to continue the bullish scenario at least targeting 1.5000. On the downside, a clear break below 1.4767 would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.4647 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario as the major bullish trend remains intact and any bearish pressure at this phase should be seen only as a consolidation/correction movement.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher earlier today in Asian session, topped at 1.4862 but further upside pressure is limited so far. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 1.4881 – 1.4767. The major scenario remains to the upside but need a clear break above 1.4881 to continue the bullish scenario at least targeting 1.5000. On the downside, a clear break below 1.4767 would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.4647 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario as the major bullish trend remains intact and any bearish pressure at this phase should be seen only as a consolidation/correction movement.

[seragsamy]

متابعة متميزة ومجهود جميل أخى العزيز وتحليلات رائعة

بالتوفيق لك

[seragsamy]

متابعة متميزة ومجهود جميل أخى العزيز وتحليلات رائعة

بالتوفيق لك