تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.4880 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen with risk of deeper retreat. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4880 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.4880 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen with risk of deeper retreat. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4880 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.6744 and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more sideway trading might be seen but we'd expect retreat to be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.6744 and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more sideway trading might be seen but we'd expect retreat to be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.8759 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8759 will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.8759 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8759 will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. With 82.75 resistance intact, fall from 85.51 is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, though, break of 82.76 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back for the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. With 82.75 resistance intact, fall from 85.51 is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, though, break of 82.76 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back for the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD slipped above the range area yesterday as you can see on my hourly chart below, topped at 1.4901 but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 1.4793. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The major scenario remains bullish but still in consolidation phase and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect an upside break out still targeting 1.5000, but a clear break below 1.4767 could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.4647 support area.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD slipped above the range area yesterday as you can see on my hourly chart below, topped at 1.4901 but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 1.4793. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The major scenario remains bullish but still in consolidation phase and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect an upside break out still targeting 1.5000, but a clear break below 1.4767 could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.4647 support area.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish correction earlier today in Asian session, fell below 1.6630/20 support area and hit 1.6584. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another break below 1.6584 testing 1.6550 – 1.6500 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6650. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.6737 before testing 1.6850 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish correction earlier today in Asian session, fell below 1.6630/20 support area and hit 1.6584. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another break below 1.6584 testing 1.6550 – 1.6500 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6650. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.6737 before testing 1.6850 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains strongly bearish but looks like we have a good intraday support around 0.8624 and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.8500. On the upside, only a clear break above 0.8779 and violation to the bearish channel can be a threat to the current strong major bearish outlook.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains strongly bearish but looks like we have a good intraday support around 0.8624 and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.8500. On the upside, only a clear break above 0.8779 and violation to the bearish channel can be a threat to the current strong major bearish outlook.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart but overall still able to maintain its bearish intraday bias and now testing 80.85 support area, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51. A clear break below 80.85 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 79.80 (61.8%). Immediate resistance at 81.40. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 82.00 my intraday bias remains more to the downside.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart but overall still able to maintain its bearish intraday bias and now testing 80.85 support area, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 76.21 – 85.51. A clear break below 80.85 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 79.80 (61.8%). Immediate resistance at 81.40. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 82.00 my intraday bias remains more to the downside.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 121.02 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 119.74 earlier today in Asian session. On hourly chart below we can see the trend line support has been broken to the downside suggests potential further bearish pressure testing 119.50 – 118.40 support area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 120.38 (former support). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 121.00 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 121.02 but whipsawed to the downside and hit 119.74 earlier today in Asian session. On hourly chart below we can see the trend line support has been broken to the downside suggests potential further bearish pressure testing 119.50 – 118.40 support area. On the upside, immediate resistance at 120.38 (former support). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 121.00 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish pressure yesterday and hit 134.37 earlier today in Asian session. On hourly chart below we can see the bullish channel has been violated to the downside suggests a serious threat to the major bullish outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 133.75 – 132.97. Immediate resistance at 135.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 135.90 but would keep the major bullish scenario intact.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish pressure yesterday and hit 134.37 earlier today in Asian session. On hourly chart below we can see the bullish channel has been violated to the downside suggests a serious threat to the major bullish outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 133.75 – 132.97. Immediate resistance at 135.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 135.90 but would keep the major bullish scenario intact.