تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.0887 after made a new historical high at 1.1010. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.0877 testing 1.0820 but note that the major scenario remains strongly bullish and any downside momentum now should be seen just as a corrective movement. Immediate resistance at 1.0950. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario strong still targeting 1.1050 – 1.1100 new historical high projection.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.0887 after made a new historical high at 1.1010. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.0877 testing 1.0820 but note that the major scenario remains strongly bullish and any downside momentum now should be seen just as a corrective movement. Immediate resistance at 1.0950. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario strong still targeting 1.1050 – 1.1100 new historical high projection.

[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 1.4901, EUR/USD failed to sustain gain and is back in tight range. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Below 1.4763 minor support will flip bias bias to the downside for deeper retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4901 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Despite edging higher to 1.4901, EUR/USD failed to sustain gain and is back in tight range. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Below 1.4763 minor support will flip bias bias to the downside for deeper retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4901 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.6744 is still in progress and deeper retreat might be seen. But downside should be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.6744 is still in progress and deeper retreat might be seen. But downside should be contained above 1.6431 support and bring another rise. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF might be losing some downside momentum but with 0.8759 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and current decline is expected to continue towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8759 will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF might be losing some downside momentum but with 0.8759 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and current decline is expected to continue towards 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8759 will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.1010 temporary top and with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Some consolidations could be seen first but break of 1.0675 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.1010 will target upper channel resistance at 1.1183 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 100 projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD continues to stay in tight range below 1.1010 temporary top and with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Some consolidations could be seen first but break of 1.0675 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.1010 will target upper channel resistance at 1.1183 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel with daily MACD staying above signal line. Current rise should be target 100 projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continues to trade below a falling 4 hours 55 EMA. Also, with 0.9575 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish. Current fall should be part of the larger down trend and is targeting 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. Break there will pave the way to key support level at 0.9056, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. Above 0.9575 will argue that a short term term bottom is formed and would bring stronger rebound towards 0.9720 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continues to trade below a falling 4 hours 55 EMA. Also, with 0.9575 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish. Current fall should be part of the larger down trend and is targeting 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. Break there will pave the way to key support level at 0.9056, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. Above 0.9575 will argue that a short term term bottom is formed and would bring stronger rebound towards 0.9720 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

With 82.76 resistance intact, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 is still expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, however, break of 82.76 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back for the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

With 82.76 resistance intact, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 is still expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, however, break of 82.76 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back for the upside for retesting this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. With 0.8739 support intact, further rally is still expected in the cross. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. With 0.8739 support intact, further rally is still expected in the cross. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. However, break of 0.8379 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper fall back to 0.8354/8671 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment but with 1.2971 resistance intact, there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment but with 1.2971 resistance intact, there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be seen below 137.01. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. Above 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be seen below 137.01. But we'd favor another rise as long as 134.06 minor support holds. Above 137.01 will bring another rise to retest 139.99 resistance first. Below 134.06 will bring deeper fall to extend the correction from 139.99. But after all, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume eventually. However, sustained break of 130.17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.