تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen below 121.82. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 118.49 minor support holds and above 121.81 will bring another rally to 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen below 121.82. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 118.49 minor support holds and above 121.81 will bring another rally to 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 1.4901 temporary top. But downside should be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4901 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 1.4901 temporary top. But downside should be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4901 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.6467 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside. At this point, we'd still expect retreat to be contained by 1.5431 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.6467 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside. At this point, we'd still expect retreat to be contained by 1.5431 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the dow2nside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8695 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the dow2nside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8695 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 80.69 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 81.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 80.69 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 81.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally resumed by breaking 0.8936 resistance and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should now extend towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8857 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally resumed by breaking 0.8936 resistance and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should now extend towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8857 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's break of 132.98 support suggests that whole decline form 139.99 has resumed. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's break of 132.98 support suggests that whole decline form 139.99 has resumed. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[Dr_aHmaaaaaD]

تسلم يا يوسف

[Dr_aHmaaaaaD]

تسلم يا يوسف

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. Despite of broad US Dollar strength, this pair still trapped in range area of 1.4881 – 1.4767 as you can see on my hourly chart below. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook where price still in consolidation phase and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect an upside break out still targeting 1.5000, but a clear break below 1.4767 /50 could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.4647 support area but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. Despite of broad US Dollar strength, this pair still trapped in range area of 1.4881 – 1.4767 as you can see on my hourly chart below. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook where price still in consolidation phase and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer intraday direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect an upside break out still targeting 1.5000, but a clear break below 1.4767 /50 could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.4647 support area but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday on broad US Dollar strength and now seems ready to test 1.6425 support area as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.6550. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.6737/00. On the downside, a clear break below 1.6425 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6370 and change my medium term bias into a neutral area.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday on broad US Dollar strength and now seems ready to test 1.6425 support area as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.6550. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong testing 1.6737/00. On the downside, a clear break below 1.6425 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6370 and change my medium term bias into a neutral area.