تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point and current decline is expected to continue to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8645 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point and current decline is expected to continue to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, above 0.8645 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's decline from 1.1010 extends further to as low as 1.0693 so far. The sustained trading below the near term rising trend line indicates that a short term top is formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD after hitting 1.1 psychological level. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone. On the upside, above 1.0876 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But consolidations would likely extend further as long as 1.1010 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's decline from 1.1010 extends further to as low as 1.0693 so far. The sustained trading below the near term rising trend line indicates that a short term top is formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD after hitting 1.1 psychological level. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone. On the upside, above 1.0876 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But consolidations would likely extend further as long as 1.1010 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 extended further to to as high as 0.9602 so far and the break of 0.9575 resistance suggests that as short term bottom is formed on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9677). On the downside, break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 extended further to to as high as 0.9602 so far and the break of 0.9575 resistance suggests that as short term bottom is formed on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9677). On the downside, break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY falls further to as low as 80.21 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY falls further to as low as 80.21 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 first. Sustained break there will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.68 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Break of 80.50 support will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.9040 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8980 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 0.8857 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.9040 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157. On the downside, below 0.8980 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 0.8857 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF is still bounded in range of 1.2728/2971 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen be there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF is still bounded in range of 1.2728/2971 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen be there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2401 and below. On the upside, however, above 1.2971 will suggest that fall from 1.3234 has completed and would turn bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound. Also, this will argue that consolidation pattern from 1.2401 is possibly still in progress.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY dips further to as low as 132.14 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY dips further to as low as 132.14 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

o change in EUR/JPY's outlook. With 118.49 minor support intact, another rise is still mildly in favor and above 121.82 will target 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

o change in EUR/JPY's outlook. With 118.49 minor support intact, another rise is still mildly in favor and above 121.82 will target 123.31 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rebound from 106.57 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. Below 118.49 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 123.31. But after all, we'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 113.54 support holds and expect rise from 106.57 to resume eventually. Though, break there will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline towards 106.57 low instead.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD's sharp break of 1.4754 support indicates that a short term top is formed at 1.4938 after hitting upper channel resistance, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.4492 support and possibly further lower channel support (now at 1.4366). On the upside, break of 1.4938 is needed to confirm rally resumption or we'd expect more corrective trading first.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD's sharp break of 1.4754 support indicates that a short term top is formed at 1.4938 after hitting upper channel resistance, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 1.4492 support and possibly further lower channel support (now at 1.4366). On the upside, break of 1.4938 is needed to confirm rally resumption or we'd expect more corrective trading first.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

With 1.6431 support intact, we'd still expect recent rally to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

With 1.6431 support intact, we'd still expect recent rally to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance. However break of 1.6431 will dampen this view and bring deeper decline to 1.6166 first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.