تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

The break of 0.8552 minor resistance suggests that USD/CHF has formed a temporary low at 0.8552 already and intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8706) and above. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

The break of 0.8552 minor resistance suggests that USD/CHF has formed a temporary low at 0.8552 already and intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8706) and above. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's decline is still in progress and extends further to as low as 79.58 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the break of 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 now sets the stage for deeper fall to retest 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.43 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's decline is still in progress and extends further to as low as 79.58 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the break of 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 now sets the stage for deeper fall to retest 76.40 spike low. On the upside, above 80.43 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term. A clear break and daily close below the bullish channel and 1.6350 support area would be a threat to the current major bullish outlook testing 1.6160 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6450 followed by 1.6550. A clear break above 1.6550 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but would keep the major bullish scenario intact. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term. A clear break and daily close below the bullish channel and 1.6350 support area would be a threat to the current major bullish outlook testing 1.6160 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6450 followed by 1.6550. A clear break above 1.6550 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but would keep the major bullish scenario intact. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish correction yesterday after found a good support around 0.8555 which formed a double bottom formation. On h4 chart below we have a huge bullish candle and price is now struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above 0.8711 and violation to the bearish channel could trigger further bullish correction testing 0.8779 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.8624. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure, keep the bearish scenario remains strong retesting 0.8555 support area. Fundamental focus is on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish correction yesterday after found a good support around 0.8555 which formed a double bottom formation. On h4 chart below we have a huge bullish candle and price is now struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above 0.8711 and violation to the bearish channel could trigger further bullish correction testing 0.8779 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.8624. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure, keep the bearish scenario remains strong retesting 0.8555 support area. Fundamental focus is on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below 79.80 but closed higher at 80.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall my intraday bias remains bearish especially if price able to stay consistently below 79.80 testing 78.24 even 76.21. Immediate resistance at 80.85. A clear break and daily close above that area would be a threat to the current strong bearish outlook testing 82.00.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below 79.80 but closed higher at 80.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall my intraday bias remains bearish especially if price able to stay consistently below 79.80 testing 78.24 even 76.21. Immediate resistance at 80.85. A clear break and daily close above that area would be a threat to the current strong bearish outlook testing 82.00.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 116.13 and closed at 116.91. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 116.00 which can be a good intraday support at this phase testing 114.00 area. As you can see on my daily chart below, since the fall from 123.31, price may form a descending triangle bearish formation which would be validated on a clear break below 116.00. Immedidate resistance at 118.00 followed by 119.50. Huge movement yesterday forces our support/resistance level much wider so unless you have a good risk – reward ratio, do not rush jumping into the market.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 116.13 and closed at 116.91. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 116.00 which can be a good intraday support at this phase testing 114.00 area. As you can see on my daily chart below, since the fall from 123.31, price may form a descending triangle bearish formation which would be validated on a clear break below 116.00. Immedidate resistance at 118.00 followed by 119.50. Huge movement yesterday forces our support/resistance level much wider so unless you have a good risk – reward ratio, do not rush jumping into the market.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 130.89 after made a clear break below 132.97 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 130.20. Immediate resistance at 132.97, which is the best place for a short position with good risk –reward ratio. A clear break above 132.97 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 134.00 area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 130.89 after made a clear break below 132.97 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 130.20. Immediate resistance at 132.97, which is the best place for a short position with good risk –reward ratio. A clear break above 132.97 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 134.00 area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 1.0581 but had a strong bullish pullback earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.0733. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains bullish but price is still in a bearish correction/consolidation phase. A clear break and daily close below 1.0581 could continue the bearish correction. Immediate resistance at 1.0770. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0877 . We need a clear break at least above 1.0877 to keep the major bullish scenario strong aiming for another new all time high projection.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 1.0581 but had a strong bullish pullback earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.0733. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains bullish but price is still in a bearish correction/consolidation phase. A clear break and daily close below 1.0581 could continue the bearish correction. Immediate resistance at 1.0770. A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0877 . We need a clear break at least above 1.0877 to keep the major bullish scenario strong aiming for another new all time high projection.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a huge bearish pullback yesterday after break below the range area, bottomed at 1.4509 and closed at 1.4557. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4450 support area which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939, which also located around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. Note that as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact, but a break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook testing 1.4150 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Immediate resistance at 1.4730. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a huge bearish pullback yesterday after break below the range area, bottomed at 1.4509 and closed at 1.4557. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4450 support area which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939, which also located around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. Note that as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact, but a break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook testing 1.4150 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Immediate resistance at 1.4730. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bullish scenario remains strong. Fundamental focus in on the US NFP today, which is expected around 185K, worse than the previous number around 216K. We have seen risk aversion sentiment this week, where bad US data lead the Greenback stronger. If we do have a bad US NFP number today and risk aversion sentiment remains driving the market, the bullish channel may not hold and might trigger further bearish correction.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/USD at 1.4938. Pull back from there is still in progress and should be targeting lower channel support (now at 1.4377). On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/USD at 1.4938. Pull back from there is still in progress and should be targeting lower channel support (now at 1.4377). On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.