تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6431 support indicates that a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias is now back to the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6431 support indicates that a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias is now back to the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 extended further and touched 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out but upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will extend recent down trend and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 extended further and touched 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out but upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8552 will extend recent down trend and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD made a temporary low at 1.0536 and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Another fall might be seen as long as 1.0788 minor resistance holds and below 1.0536 will target 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. Above 1.0788 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for a retest on 1.1010. But decisive break there is needed to confirm up trend resumption or consolidations would likely extend further with another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD made a temporary low at 1.0536 and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Another fall might be seen as long as 1.0788 minor resistance holds and below 1.0536 will target 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. Above 1.0788 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for a retest on 1.1010. But decisive break there is needed to confirm up trend resumption or consolidations would likely extend further with another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should be target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term bottom is formed in USD/CAD at 0.9444. Rebound from there extended to as high as 0.9710 so far and met 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise could still be seen as long as 0.9567 minor support holds, towards falling channel resistance (now at 0.9781). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term bottom is formed in USD/CAD at 0.9444. Rebound from there extended to as high as 0.9710 so far and met 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise could still be seen as long as 0.9567 minor support holds, towards falling channel resistance (now at 0.9781). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and is possibly building up momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY formed a temporary low at 79.85 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some sideway consolidations could be seen first. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY formed a temporary low at 79.85 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some sideway consolidations could be seen first. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

Whole decline from 123.31 in EUR/JPY is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Focus remains on 113.54 support and as long as this support holds, we'd still favor the case for rebound from 106.57 to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 113.54 will put focus back to 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

Whole decline from 123.31 in EUR/JPY is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Focus remains on 113.54 support and as long as this support holds, we'd still favor the case for rebound from 106.57 to resume sooner or later. However, sustained break of 113.54 will put focus back to 106.57 low instead.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support, however, will invalidate this bullish view and will turn focus back to 105.42 low instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's strong break of 1.2728 confirms that whole fall from 1.3234 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for deeper fall. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and current decline should now target a new low below 1.2401. On the upside, above 1.2762 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.2971 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's strong break of 1.2728 confirms that whole fall from 1.3234 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for deeper fall. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and current decline should now target a new low below 1.2401. On the upside, above 1.2762 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.2971 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/GBP at 0.9041 and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 0.8857. Break will confirm this case and bring deeper pull back towards 38.2% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8752. On the upside, break of 0.9401 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidation with risk of another fall even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, a short term top is formed in EUR/GBP at 0.9041 and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 0.8857. Break will confirm this case and bring deeper pull back towards 38.2% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8752. On the upside, break of 0.9401 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidation with risk of another fall even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, however, break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has possibly finished. This will in turn dampen the bullish view and indicate that price actions from 0.8067 are merely a correction in the larger decline, rather than reversal. Focus will then turn back to 0.8284 support.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside and fall from 139.99 would extend further to 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside and fall from 139.99 would extend further to 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). At this point, we're still treating fall from 139.99 as a correction and hence, we'd expect strong support from 130.00/17 to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 first. However, sustained break of 130.00/17 will dampen this view and turn focus back to 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Such decline should have completed at 122.40. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. We'll stay bullish in the cross as long as 130.17 support holds. However, break of 130.17 will dampen this bullish view and would possibly bring another low below 122.40 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment and current pull back from 1.4938 short term top is still expected to continue to lower channel support (now at 1.4385) and possibly lower. On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment and current pull back from 1.4938 short term top is still expected to continue to lower channel support (now at 1.4385) and possibly lower. On the upside, above 1.4675 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938. But break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first, with another fall.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.