تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops to as low a 1.6354 earlier today before recovering mildly. As noted before for a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops to as low a 1.6354 earlier today before recovering mildly. As noted before for a short term top is at least formed at 1.6744. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break there will put 1.5935 key near term support back into focus. On the upside, break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF rebounds further to as high as 0.8794 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first. Further break there will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF rebounds further to as high as 0.8794 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first. Further break there will confirm down trend resumption for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's recovery from 79.58 is still in progress and might extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 81.16) and above. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's recovery from 79.58 is still in progress and might extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 81.16) and above. But after all, break of 82.76 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish. Below 79.58 will bring another decline to retest 76.40 spike low.

In the bigger picture, persistent weakness in the pair after hitting 85.51 dampens the bullish view that an important bottom is formed at 76.40. Also, note that strong resistance has been seen from the falling 55 weeks EMA and long term falling trend line. That is, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. The break of 80.50 support indicates that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD

Weekly Summary: Important supports broken, bearish correction likely to continue


The EURUSD had a significant bearish correction this week, bottomed at 1.4308 and closed at 1.4314 after unable to make a clear break above 1.4900, made a huge bearish candle on the weekly chart. On daily chart below we can see two support regions had been broken to the downside: The bullish channel was violated and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939 had been breached. This fact could continue the bearish correction testing 1.4150 (38.2%) even 1.4000. Immediate resistance at 1.4600 followed by 1.4750. Long term bullish scenario remains intact, but my short and medium term outlooks are now in a bearish mode.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD

Weekly Summary: Important supports broken, bearish correction likely to continue


The EURUSD had a significant bearish correction this week, bottomed at 1.4308 and closed at 1.4314 after unable to make a clear break above 1.4900, made a huge bearish candle on the weekly chart. On daily chart below we can see two support regions had been broken to the downside: The bullish channel was violated and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2873 – 1.4939 had been breached. This fact could continue the bearish correction testing 1.4150 (38.2%) even 1.4000. Immediate resistance at 1.4600 followed by 1.4750. Long term bullish scenario remains intact, but my short and medium term outlooks are now in a bearish mode.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.4938 last week and fell sharply to close at 1.4314. Initial bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.4938 last week and fell sharply to close at 1.4314. Initial bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6355 last week. A short term top top is at least in place and initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6355 last week. A short term top top is at least in place and initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dropped further to 0.8552 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dropped further to 0.8552 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.0536 last week but managed to draw support from 1.0388/0581 support and formed a temporary low there and recovery. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1194. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.0536 last week but managed to draw support from 1.0388/0581 support and formed a temporary low there and recovery. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1194. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD rebounded further to as high as 0.9701 last week after forming a short term bottom at 0.9444. With 0.9567 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9778). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD rebounded further to as high as 0.9701 last week after forming a short term bottom at 0.9444. With 0.9567 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9778). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 79.58 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.

In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 79.58 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.

In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.