تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rose to 0.9041 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply to as low as 0.8744. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Note that break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP rose to 0.9041 last week but reversed from there and dropped sharply to as low as 0.8744. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall. Note that break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 1.2575 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2401 first. As noted before, whole consolidation patter from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 1.2575 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2401 first. As noted before, whole consolidation patter from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 115.20 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 115.20 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the chance of breaking 169.96 high with the current rally.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's fall from 139.99 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 130.88 before recovering mildly. Further decline remains in favor initially this week and focus will be on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's fall from 139.99 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 130.88 before recovering mildly. Further decline remains in favor initially this week and focus will be on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

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[m.youssif]

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[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a strong bearish momentum on Thursday and Friday after break below the range area and hit 1.4308. There were some upside pullback earlier today in Asian session but as long as price stays below 1.4518 resistance area my intraday bias remains more to the downside now testing 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. A clear break back above 1.4518 would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 1.4600. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we need to see a clear break above 1.4900 to see further bullish scenario testing 1.5000. Huge movement forces our support/resistance much wider but we must keep our risk –reward ratio in a good level.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a strong bearish momentum on Thursday and Friday after break below the range area and hit 1.4308. There were some upside pullback earlier today in Asian session but as long as price stays below 1.4518 resistance area my intraday bias remains more to the downside now testing 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. A clear break back above 1.4518 would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 1.4600. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we need to see a clear break above 1.4900 to see further bullish scenario testing 1.5000. Huge movement forces our support/resistance much wider but we must keep our risk –reward ratio in a good level.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD still able to maintain its bearish phase so far and slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact not only could continue the bearish phase in nearest term testing 1.6280 but also a serious threat to the major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.6425/50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6500 but I think we need at least a clear break above 1.6600 to keep the major bullish scenario remains strong.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD still able to maintain its bearish phase so far and slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact not only could continue the bearish phase in nearest term testing 1.6280 but also a serious threat to the major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.6425/50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6500 but I think we need at least a clear break above 1.6600 to keep the major bullish scenario remains strong.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish correction on Friday, slipped above 0.8779 but still unable to stay consistently above that area so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.8779 targeting 0.8900. Immediate support at 0.8710. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8624. The major bearish scenario remains intact but need a clear break below 0.8555 to continue the major bearish scenario.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish correction on Friday, slipped above 0.8779 but still unable to stay consistently above that area so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.8779 targeting 0.8900. Immediate support at 0.8710. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8624. The major bearish scenario remains intact but need a clear break below 0.8555 to continue the major bearish scenario.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped above 80.85 on Friday but still unable to stay above that area so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 82.00 I still prefer a bearish scenario but a clear break above 80.85 could trigger further upside pullback testing 82.00. On the downside, we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 78.24 even 76.21.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped above 80.85 on Friday but still unable to stay above that area so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 82.00 I still prefer a bearish scenario but a clear break above 80.85 could trigger further upside pullback testing 82.00. On the downside, we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 78.24 even 76.21.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, closed at 115.39 but opened higher earlier today in Asian session at 116.23, made a gap as easily seen on hourly/h4 chart. As long as price moves below 116.00 my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside targeting 114.00. Immediate resistance at 116.35. A clear break above that area would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 117.00/50 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, closed at 115.39 but opened higher earlier today in Asian session at 116.23, made a gap as easily seen on hourly/h4 chart. As long as price moves below 116.00 my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside targeting 114.00. Immediate resistance at 116.35. A clear break above that area would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 117.00/50 resistance area.