تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still targeting 130.20. A clear break above 132.97 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 134.00 but would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still targeting 130.20. A clear break above 132.97 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 134.00 but would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD bearish correction was paused on Friday after unable to stay consistently below 1.0581 and now struggling around 1.0770. The bias is neutral in nearest term but unless we have a consistent move back above 1.0877 the bearish correction scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 1.0660. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD bearish correction was paused on Friday after unable to stay consistently below 1.0581 and now struggling around 1.0770. The bias is neutral in nearest term but unless we have a consistent move back above 1.0877 the bearish correction scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 1.0660. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area.

[m.youssif]

In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, i mentioned that many believed that the current bullish run is far overextended. 1.48 – 1.5 seems to be a hard ceiling and with the US Non-Farm Payroll due, we may expect the unexpected.

Looking at the EUR/USD Daily chart above, we note an extremely bearish last two days for the week.
While the currency pair ranged tightly during the first part of the week, the European Central Bank interest rate decision in the mid week probably started the bearish correction. Many investors were expecting a hike in the European interest rate due to the inflation risks. It remained status quo instead. Knee jerk reactions probably sent the EUR/USD down due to an Euro currency sell off.
Towards the end of the week, more developments happened. First it was the US Non-Farm Payroll turning out to be better than expected. While this drove more sentiments in favor of the recovering economy of America, the unexpected hike in unemployment rate probably caused confusion and disappointment. It stands at 9% now. Secondly, there was speculation that Greece may exit the Euro currency. As it is widely believed that such actions undermine the stability and confidence of the Euro currency, a knee jerk selling of the Euro currency probably happened.
***
From a technical point of view, the bullish momentum had come a long way. We were nearing the 1.5 level and the currency pair was at the upper trend line. The little support the lower trend line offered was indicative of the strong sell off. If the currency pair attempts to climb back into the EUR/USD bullish channel, 1.46+/- will be probably the line to watch out for. A dip below 1.42 will probably suggest a greater bearish correction.
While we all know of the problems of the American economy, the job market and housing market, let us not forget that the Euro Zone faces challenges too. The Euro Zone budget deficit crisis is still lurking and the different characteristics of the various Euro Zone countries make any coordinated policy challenging to implement.
Next is heavy on crucial economic reports such as the US TIC Long-Term Purchases and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Hence it is important that your money management is properly implemented.
Trade Safely.

[m.youssif]

In the previous EUR/USD weekly review, i mentioned that many believed that the current bullish run is far overextended. 1.48 – 1.5 seems to be a hard ceiling and with the US Non-Farm Payroll due, we may expect the unexpected.

Looking at the EUR/USD Daily chart above, we note an extremely bearish last two days for the week.
While the currency pair ranged tightly during the first part of the week, the European Central Bank interest rate decision in the mid week probably started the bearish correction. Many investors were expecting a hike in the European interest rate due to the inflation risks. It remained status quo instead. Knee jerk reactions probably sent the EUR/USD down due to an Euro currency sell off.
Towards the end of the week, more developments happened. First it was the US Non-Farm Payroll turning out to be better than expected. While this drove more sentiments in favor of the recovering economy of America, the unexpected hike in unemployment rate probably caused confusion and disappointment. It stands at 9% now. Secondly, there was speculation that Greece may exit the Euro currency. As it is widely believed that such actions undermine the stability and confidence of the Euro currency, a knee jerk selling of the Euro currency probably happened.
***
From a technical point of view, the bullish momentum had come a long way. We were nearing the 1.5 level and the currency pair was at the upper trend line. The little support the lower trend line offered was indicative of the strong sell off. If the currency pair attempts to climb back into the EUR/USD bullish channel, 1.46+/- will be probably the line to watch out for. A dip below 1.42 will probably suggest a greater bearish correction.
While we all know of the problems of the American economy, the job market and housing market, let us not forget that the Euro Zone faces challenges too. The Euro Zone budget deficit crisis is still lurking and the different characteristics of the various Euro Zone countries make any coordinated policy challenging to implement.
Next is heavy on crucial economic reports such as the US TIC Long-Term Purchases and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Hence it is important that your money management is properly implemented.
Trade Safely.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside with 0.8821 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside with 0.8821 minor resistance intact. Break of 0.8739 support will argue that while rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for the moment and current fall from 1.3234 is still in progress for a retest on 1.2401 low. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for the moment and current fall from 1.3234 is still in progress for a retest on 1.2401 low. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Break of 1.2401 will confirm down trend resumption for 1.2 psychological level first. On the upside, above 1.2745 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside for further fall towards 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00), which is the main near term focus. Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside for further fall towards 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00), which is the main near term focus. Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside with 117.57 minor resistance intact and current fall could extend through 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside with 117.57 minor resistance intact and current fall could extend through 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Nevertheless, focus will remain on 113.54. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. On the upside, above 117.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. Further break of 121.82 will indicate that rebound from 106.57 has resumed for another high above 123.31.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 79.58 temporary low. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 79.58 temporary low. But upside of recovery should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.4587 minor resistance intact. Fall from 1.4938 short term top is still in favor to extend further towards 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.4587 minor resistance intact. Fall from 1.4938 short term top is still in favor to extend further towards 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4587 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside and fall from 1.6744 short term top is still in progress for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside and fall from 1.6744 short term top is still in progress for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.