تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 short term bottom could still continue towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 short term bottom could still continue towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen first. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1218. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen first. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1218. On the downside, below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.

[محمد نوارج]

بارك الله في هذا الجهد إن شاء الله وأفاد به الجميع ..،

[محمد نوارج]

بارك الله في هذا الجهد إن شاء الله وأفاد به الجميع ..،

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.4278 in early US session so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.4278 in early US session so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 short term top extends further to as low as 1.6309 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6406 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6744 short term top extends further to as low as 1.6309 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6406 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.6573 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish and we'd continue to favor deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 short term bottom could still extend towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 short term bottom could still extend towards 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8676 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 79.58 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 79.58 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, the break of 80.50 support argue that rebound from 76.40 low is likely finished at 85.51 already. Below 79.58 will extend the fall from there to retest 76.40 low.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall extends further to as low as 1.2548 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2401/32 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Break of 1.2401 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3234 to 1.2728 from 1.2961 at 1.2142 next. On the upside, above 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall extends further to as low as 1.2548 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2401/32 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Break of 1.2401 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3234 to 1.2728 from 1.2961 at 1.2142 next. On the upside, above 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[معاذ عودات]

شكرا يا غالي ..
بارك الله فيك على هذا التحليل الجميل

[معاذ عودات]

شكرا يا غالي ..
بارك الله فيك على هذا التحليل الجميل

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4253 but closed higher at 1.4367 made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On hourly chart below we can see since the breakdown below the range area price still making lower highs indicated that the bearish phase should remain intact, still targeting 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.4375 followed by 1.4438. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we would need a clear break at least above 1.4518 to see further bullish pressure which could end or at least pause the current short term strong bearish correction outlook.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4253 but closed higher at 1.4367 made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On hourly chart below we can see since the breakdown below the range area price still making lower highs indicated that the bearish phase should remain intact, still targeting 1.4150 – 1.4000 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.4375 followed by 1.4438. The major bullish scenario remains intact but I think we would need a clear break at least above 1.4518 to see further bullish pressure which could end or at least pause the current short term strong bearish correction outlook.