تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, hit my intraday bearish target around 1.6280, but further bearish pressure was rejected and closed significantly higher at 1.6405. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves outside the bullish channel and below 1.6425/50 resistance area the bearish phase should remain intact. Immediate support at 1.6340. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias back to bearish again retesting 1.6280. Below 1.6280, there is a support around 1.6164 to be tested. On the upside, a clear break above 1.6450 would halt the short term bearish outlook, but I think we need a clear break at least back above 1.6600 to end the current bearish correction and keep the major bullish scenario strong.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, hit my intraday bearish target around 1.6280, but further bearish pressure was rejected and closed significantly higher at 1.6405. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves outside the bullish channel and below 1.6425/50 resistance area the bearish phase should remain intact. Immediate support at 1.6340. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias back to bearish again retesting 1.6280. Below 1.6280, there is a support around 1.6164 to be tested. On the upside, a clear break above 1.6450 would halt the short term bearish outlook, but I think we need a clear break at least back above 1.6600 to end the current bearish correction and keep the major bullish scenario strong.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bullish correction was paused yesterday, but 0.8710 still provided a good intraday support so far. Looks like price trapped in a range area of 0.8779 – 0.8710 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer intraday bias. A clear break above 0.8779 could continue the bullish correction testing 0.8900 while a clear break below 0.8710 could trigger further downside pressure testing 0.8624. The major bearish scenario remains intact but I think we would need a clear break below 0.8555 to end the bullish correction phase and continue the major bearish scenario.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bullish correction was paused yesterday, but 0.8710 still provided a good intraday support so far. Looks like price trapped in a range area of 0.8779 – 0.8710 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer intraday bias. A clear break above 0.8779 could continue the bullish correction testing 0.8900 while a clear break below 0.8710 could trigger further downside pressure testing 0.8624. The major bearish scenario remains intact but I think we would need a clear break below 0.8555 to end the bullish correction phase and continue the major bearish scenario.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 80.85. On hourly chart below we can see price still trapped in range area of 80.85 – 79.80 (50% – 61.8%) and need a clear break on either side to see clearer intraday bias. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and expect a clear break below 79.80 testing 78.24 even 76.21. On the upside, a clear break above 80.85 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 82.00 but only a clear break back above 82.00 could be a threat to the current short term strong bearish outlook.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 80.85. On hourly chart below we can see price still trapped in range area of 80.85 – 79.80 (50% – 61.8%) and need a clear break on either side to see clearer intraday bias. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and expect a clear break below 79.80 testing 78.24 even 76.21. On the upside, a clear break above 80.85 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 82.00 but only a clear break back above 82.00 could be a threat to the current short term strong bearish outlook.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 115.01 and closed at 115.18. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 114.00. Immediate resistance remains around 116.35. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 117.00/50 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 115.01 and closed at 115.18. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still targeting 114.00. Immediate resistance remains around 116.35. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 117.00/50 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 131.21 but traded higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 131.92. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Potential range area between 132.97 – 130.20 but as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. A clear break above 132.97 would halt the current strong bearish outlook testing 134.00/25 resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below 130.20 could continue the bearish scenario testing 128.45 support area even lower.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 131.21 but traded higher earlier today in Asian session and hit 131.92. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Potential range area between 132.97 – 130.20 but as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. A clear break above 132.97 would halt the current strong bearish outlook testing 134.00/25 resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below 130.20 could continue the bearish scenario testing 128.45 support area even lower.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. There are no significant movement so far and price still struggling around 0.0770. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Although the bearish pressure seems losing its momentum now, we need a clear break at least above 1.0877 to end the current bearish correction phase and continue the major bullish scenario retesting 1.1010 even aiming for new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0700. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. There are no significant movement so far and price still struggling around 0.0770. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Although the bearish pressure seems losing its momentum now, we need a clear break at least above 1.0877 to end the current bearish correction phase and continue the major bullish scenario retesting 1.1010 even aiming for new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0700. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area.

[m.youssif]

At this point, further decline is still in favor in EUR/GBP as long as 0.8817 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8817 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

At this point, further decline is still in favor in EUR/GBP as long as 0.8817 minor resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.8739 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8284 has completed and deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8284 to 0.9041 at 0.8573 first. On the upside, above 0.8817 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But break of 0.9041 is needed confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside with 1.2628 minor resistance intact and further decline should be seen to 1.2401/32 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Break of 1.2401 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3234 to 1.2728 from 1.2961 at 1.2142 next. On the upside, above 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside with 1.2628 minor resistance intact and further decline should be seen to 1.2401/32 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Break of 1.2401 will target 161.8% projection of 1.3234 to 1.2728 from 1.2961 at 1.2142 next. On the upside, above 1.2628 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.2971 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Further decline could still be seen in GBP/JPY with 134.23 minor resistance intact. Focus will remain on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

Further decline could still be seen in GBP/JPY with 134.23 minor resistance intact. Focus will remain on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 137.01 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 139.99 and above.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remain on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY dips further to as low as 114.79 so far and met mentioned 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Further decline is still in favor with 117.57 minor resistance intact and focus will remain on 113.54 support. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. Though, strong rebound above there, will retain the bullish case that rebound from 106.57 is still in progress. Above 117.57 will flip bias back to the upside for 121.82 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY dips further to as low as 114.79 so far and met mentioned 100% projection of 123.31 to 116.46 from 121.82 at 114.97, 50% retracement of 106.57 to 123.31 at 114.94. Further decline is still in favor with 117.57 minor resistance intact and focus will remain on 113.54 support. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. Though, strong rebound above there, will retain the bullish case that rebound from 106.57 is still in progress. Above 117.57 will flip bias back to the upside for 121.82 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.