تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 79.58 temporary is still in progress and further recovery could be seen. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 79.58 temporary is still in progress and further recovery could be seen. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

Further decline is still mildly in favor in EUR/USD with 1.4440 minor resistance intact and current fall from 1.4938 could extend to 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

Further decline is still mildly in favor in EUR/USD with 1.4440 minor resistance intact and current fall from 1.4938 could extend to 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). But downside should be contained there and bring rise resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6406 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 1.6269 and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another fall is still expected as long as 1.6573 resistance holds. Below 1.6269 will target 1.6166 support first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6406 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 1.6269 and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another fall is still expected as long as 1.6573 resistance holds. Below 1.6269 will target 1.6166 support first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 short term low is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8707 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8552 short term low is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8707 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.1010 is still in progress and could extend further with another fall. Below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1218.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.

[m.youssif]

No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Consolidation from 1.1010 is still in progress and could extend further with another fall. Below 1.0536 will turn bias to the downside again and bring fall resumption towards 50% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.1010 at 1.0357. On the upside, break of 1.1010 will confirm up trend resumption and should target upper channel resistance at 1.1218.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. Further rise is still in favor with 0.9567 minor support intact, towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9761). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. Further rise is still in favor with 0.9567 minor support intact, towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9761). On the downside, below 0.9567 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9444. But break of 0.9444 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay neural and expect more consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD might have formed a temporary low at 1.4254 but another fall will remain in favor as long as 1.4440 minor resistance holds. But focus will remain on 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). We'd still expect pull back from 1.4938 to be contained there and bring up trend resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3429 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


EUR/USD might have formed a temporary low at 1.4254 but another fall will remain in favor as long as 1.4440 minor resistance holds. But focus will remain on 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). We'd still expect pull back from 1.4938 to be contained there and bring up trend resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3429 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had another volatile but indecisive market yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Overall price is still in a bearish phase since the fall from 1.4939 but we have a violated falling wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below suggests potential threat to the current short term strong bearish outlook testing 1.4518 resistance area ( 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.4253) especially if price able to move consistently above 1.4415/38 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.4253). Immediate support at 1.4320. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.4253 support area and keep the bearish phase testing 1.4150 – 1.4000 intact.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had another volatile but indecisive market yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Overall price is still in a bearish phase since the fall from 1.4939 but we have a violated falling wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below suggests potential threat to the current short term strong bearish outlook testing 1.4518 resistance area ( 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.4253) especially if price able to move consistently above 1.4415/38 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4939 – 1.4253). Immediate support at 1.4320. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.4253 support area and keep the bearish phase testing 1.4150 – 1.4000 intact.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was able to maintain its bearish bias yesterday and found a good intraday resistance around 1.6425 and still moves below the bullish channel. However, I think the bias remains neutral in nearest term as price might be in a consolidation phase and need a clear break below 1.6280 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.6164. On the upside, 1.6425/50 remains a key resistance and a clear break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.6600.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was able to maintain its bearish bias yesterday and found a good intraday resistance around 1.6425 and still moves below the bullish channel. However, I think the bias remains neutral in nearest term as price might be in a consolidation phase and need a clear break below 1.6280 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.6164. On the upside, 1.6425/50 remains a key resistance and a clear break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.6600.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish correction yesterday, broke above 0.8779 and topped at 0.8822. This fact could continue the bullish correction scenario targeting 0.8900 in nearest term. On the downside, another move below 0.8779 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8710 and may keep price in a sideways condition. The major bearish scenario remains intact but would need a clear break below 0.8555 to continue the bearish scenario.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish correction yesterday, broke above 0.8779 and topped at 0.8822. This fact could continue the bullish correction scenario targeting 0.8900 in nearest term. On the downside, another move below 0.8779 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8710 and may keep price in a sideways condition. The major bearish scenario remains intact but would need a clear break below 0.8555 to continue the bearish scenario.