تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday and now struggling around 80.85 resistance area. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle formation suggests potential upside scenario especially if price able to move consistently above 80.85 testing 82.00 key resistance area. The bearish outlook since the fall from 85.51 remains intact but need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario testing 78.24 even 76.21.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday and now struggling around 80.85 resistance area. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle formation suggests potential upside scenario especially if price able to move consistently above 80.85 testing 82.00 key resistance area. The bearish outlook since the fall from 85.51 remains intact but need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario testing 78.24 even 76.21.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish bias yesterday and now traded above 116.00 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above the minor trend line resistance (red) and 116.88 testing 117.50 even 119.25 resistance area. However, as long as price moves below the major trend line resistance (white) the bearish scenario since the fall from 123.31 should remain intact. On the downside, another move back below 116.00 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong testing 114.00 support area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish bias yesterday and now traded above 116.00 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above the minor trend line resistance (red) and 116.88 testing 117.50 even 119.25 resistance area. However, as long as price moves below the major trend line resistance (white) the bearish scenario since the fall from 123.31 should remain intact. On the downside, another move back below 116.00 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong testing 114.00 support area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday on broad Yen weakness but still trapped in the range area. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook and as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. A clear break above 132.97 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 134.00. Immediate support at 131.50 followed by 130.20.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday on broad Yen weakness but still trapped in the range area. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook and as long as price stays below 132.97 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. A clear break above 132.97 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 134.00. Immediate support at 131.50 followed by 130.20.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday and now seems ready to test 1.0877 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0877 targeting 1.1010 which could end the bearish correction phase after the failure to make a clear break below 1.0581, aiming for another new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0770. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area and keep the bearish correction outlook intact.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday and now seems ready to test 1.0877 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0877 targeting 1.1010 which could end the bearish correction phase after the failure to make a clear break below 1.0581, aiming for another new historical high projection. Immediate support at 1.0770. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.0581 key support area and keep the bearish correction outlook intact.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Another fall is still in favor with 1.4440 minor resistance intact. But focus will remain on 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). We'd still expect pull back from 1.4938 to be contained there and bring up trend resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3429 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Another fall is still in favor with 1.4440 minor resistance intact. But focus will remain on 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149). We'd still expect pull back from 1.4938 to be contained there and bring up trend resumption. Above 1.4440 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance first. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3429 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rebounds to as high as 1.6515 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.6573 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall is still in favor with 1.6573 resistance intact. Below 1.6269 will resume the whole decline from 1.6744 to 1.6166 support first. Break will target 1.5935 key near term support next. However, above 1.6573 will indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished and will bring stronger rally to retest this resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rebounds to as high as 1.6515 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.6573 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall is still in favor with 1.6573 resistance intact. Below 1.6269 will resume the whole decline from 1.6744 to 1.6166 support first. Break will target 1.5935 key near term support next. However, above 1.6573 will indicate that fall from 1.6744 is finished and will bring stronger rally to retest this resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8552 is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.8848 so far in early US session, just inch below mentioned 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. Further rise could still be seen with 0.8707 minor support intact but upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8707 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8552 is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.8848 so far in early US session, just inch below mentioned 38.2% retracement of 0.9399 to 0.8552 at 0.8853. Further rise could still be seen with 0.8707 minor support intact but upside is expected to be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.8707 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 support first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rises further to 81.31 so far in early US session and recovery from 79.58 is still in progress Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rises further to 81.31 so far in early US session and recovery from 79.58 is still in progress Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's strong rebound from 130.88 today suggests that correction from 139.99 might be completed at 130.88, ahead of mentioned 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 134.23 minor resistance will affirm this case and target 137.01. Further break there should resume rebound from 122.40 to 139.99 and above. On the downside, we'd still favor the case of further rally as long as 130.17 cluster support holds. Nevertheless, decisive break of 130.17 will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remains on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's strong rebound from 130.88 today suggests that correction from 139.99 might be completed at 130.88, ahead of mentioned 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 134.23 minor resistance will affirm this case and target 137.01. Further break there should resume rebound from 122.40 to 139.99 and above. On the downside, we'd still favor the case of further rally as long as 130.17 cluster support holds. Nevertheless, decisive break of 130.17 will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remains on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 1.4415/38 resistance area, bottomed at 1.4171 and closed at 1.4206. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear/strong break below 1.4171/50 targeting 1.4000. Since the fall from 1.4939 we have been seeing important supports were broken one by one by strong bearish pressure and so far there is no sign of Euro recovery and no significant support until 1.4000. Immediate resistance at 1.4250/80. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break at least above 1.4500 could stop/pause the current strong bearish outlook.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 1.4415/38 resistance area, bottomed at 1.4171 and closed at 1.4206. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear/strong break below 1.4171/50 targeting 1.4000. Since the fall from 1.4939 we have been seeing important supports were broken one by one by strong bearish pressure and so far there is no sign of Euro recovery and no significant support until 1.4000. Immediate resistance at 1.4250/80. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break at least above 1.4500 could stop/pause the current strong bearish outlook.