تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's fall from 0.9710 was brief and the recovery dampened the immediate bearish view of down trend resumption. Instead, focus is back on 0.9710/20 resistance zone. Sustained break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512). In such case, USD/CAD should have bottomed out in near term and stronger rise should be seen towards 0.9972 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9512 will turn focus back to 0.9444 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's fall from 0.9710 was brief and the recovery dampened the immediate bearish view of down trend resumption. Instead, focus is back on 0.9710/20 resistance zone. Sustained break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512). In such case, USD/CAD should have bottomed out in near term and stronger rise should be seen towards 0.9972 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9512 will turn focus back to 0.9444 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds. Further fall would be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as recovery from 79.58 continues. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook as recovery from 79.58 continues. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's recovery was limited below 134.23 and weakens again. The failure below 134.23 suggests that fall from 139.99 is possibly still in progress and focus remains on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. nevertheless, strong support from 130.17 and break of 134.23 will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is not finished and should flip bias back to the upside for 137.01 and then 139.99.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remains on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's recovery was limited below 134.23 and weakens again. The failure below 134.23 suggests that fall from 139.99 is possibly still in progress and focus remains on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. nevertheless, strong support from 130.17 and break of 134.23 will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is not finished and should flip bias back to the upside for 137.01 and then 139.99.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Question remains on whether such decline has completed at 122.40 already. We'll remain cautiously bullish on the cross as long as 130.17 support holds and expect rise from 122.40 to resume sooner or later towards 163.05 or above. However, sustained break of 130.17 will indicate that another low below 122.40 would be seen before GBP/JPY finally reverses.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's recovery was limited below 117.57 minor resistance and fall from 123.31 resumed by edging lower to 114.55. Further decline could still be seen with 117.57 intact and focus will remain on 113.54 support. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. Though, strong rebound above there, will retain the bullish case that rebound from 106.57 is still in progress. Above 117.57 will flip bias back to the upside for 121.82 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's recovery was limited below 117.57 minor resistance and fall from 123.31 resumed by edging lower to 114.55. Further decline could still be seen with 117.57 intact and focus will remain on 113.54 support. Decisive break there will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has completed at 123.31 already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low next. Though, strong rebound above there, will retain the bullish case that rebound from 106.57 is still in progress. Above 117.57 will flip bias back to the upside for 121.82 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1113.54 support holds, we'd still slightly favor the bullish case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in the longer term at 105.42 already. A break of 123.31 should pave the way to 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) to confirm completion of whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. However, break of 105.42 will invalidate this bullish case and indicate that down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for another low below 105.42 before reversal.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2484 temporary low continues. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Overall outlook in the cross remains unchanged. consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.2484 should send EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2484 temporary low continues. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Overall outlook in the cross remains unchanged. consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already and fall from there is resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.2484 should send EUR/CHF through 1.2401 low.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.9041 extended further to as low as 0.8672 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. The deeper than expected fall opens up the case that rise from 0.8284 support is finished at 0.9041 already. Focus is now on 0.8671 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 0.8284 key support next. Though, we didn't totally give up the bullish case yet. Strong rebound from the current level and break of 0.8817 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9041 resistance.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.9041 extended further to as low as 0.8672 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline. The deeper than expected fall opens up the case that rise from 0.8284 support is finished at 0.9041 already. Focus is now on 0.8671 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 0.8284 key support next. Though, we didn't totally give up the bullish case yet. Strong rebound from the current level and break of 0.8817 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9041 resistance.
In the bigger picture, the sharp reversal last week raises the possibility that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that correction from 0.9799 is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and dips to as low as 1.4122 so far today. While further decline is still in favor, focus remains on whether 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) would hold eventually. Strong rebound form the current level and break of 1.4422 minor resistance will retain the bullish outlook and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will indicate that whole rise from 1.2873 is finished and should bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3445 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and dips to as low as 1.4122 so far today. While further decline is still in favor, focus remains on whether 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) would hold eventually. Strong rebound form the current level and break of 1.4422 minor resistance will retain the bullish outlook and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will indicate that whole rise from 1.2873 is finished and should bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3445 instead.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.4938 was steep and deep, there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. However note that sustained break of 1.4157 cluster support will suggest that rise from 1.2873 has finished and deeper fall could be seen to lower trend line support (now at 1.3393). Sustained break there will invalidate the bullish view and open up the case for a retest of 1.1875 low.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6269 support confirms that whole decline from 1.6744 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, break of 1.6515 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.6744. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6269 support confirms that whole decline from 1.6744 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.6166 support first. Break will target key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, break of 1.6515 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.6744. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 could extend further towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.8974). Though, we'd continue to expect expect strong resistance at 0.8895/9006 resistance zone to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8783 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 low first. However, sustained break of 0.9006 resistance will raise the possibility of medium term bottoming and would bring stringer rise to 0.9339 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside and rebound from 0.8552 could extend further towards near term falling channel resistance (now at 0.8974). Though, we'd continue to expect expect strong resistance at 0.8895/9006 resistance zone to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.8783 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8552 low first. However, sustained break of 0.9006 resistance will raise the possibility of medium term bottoming and would bring stringer rise to 0.9339 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 is already broken and USD/CHF should now target 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's sideway consolidation form 79.58 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's sideway consolidation form 79.58 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet but upside is expected to be limited by 82.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and would target a retest on 76.40 low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.