تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4123 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4276 but traded lower and hit 1.4183 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential range area between 1.4250/80 – 1.4123. Since the failure of the falling wedge bullish scenario as you can see on my hourly chart below, I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still testing 1.4000 support area. Immediate support at 1.4171. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.4123 and might give us an early indication to another bearish attempt testing 1.4000. On the upside, immediate resistance remains around 1.4250/80. A clear break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.4350 – 1.4420 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4123 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4276 but traded lower and hit 1.4183 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential range area between 1.4250/80 – 1.4123. Since the failure of the falling wedge bullish scenario as you can see on my hourly chart below, I still prefer a bearish intraday outlook, still testing 1.4000 support area. Immediate support at 1.4171. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 1.4123 and might give us an early indication to another bearish attempt testing 1.4000. On the upside, immediate resistance remains around 1.4250/80. A clear break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.4350 – 1.4420 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday and now traded below 1.6280 support area, suggests potential further bearish outlook testing 1.6164 in nearest term. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish continuation testing 1.6000 support area. On the upside, another move back above 1.6280 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6320/70 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday and now traded below 1.6280 support area, suggests potential further bearish outlook testing 1.6164 in nearest term. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish continuation testing 1.6000 support area. On the upside, another move back above 1.6280 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6320/70 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday made a Doji on daily chart. The bullish correction scenario was paused after unable to make a clear break above 0.8900 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price is still in a bullish correction phase but need a clear break above 0.8900 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9000. Immediate support remains around 0.8779. A clear break below that area could be a threat to the current bullish correction outlook testing 0.8555 key support area.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday made a Doji on daily chart. The bullish correction scenario was paused after unable to make a clear break above 0.8900 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price is still in a bullish correction phase but need a clear break above 0.8900 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9000. Immediate support remains around 0.8779. A clear break below that area could be a threat to the current bullish correction outlook testing 0.8555 key support area.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Price is now struggling around 80.85 support area. Another clear break below that area and the trend line support (red) could trigger further bearish pressure testing 79.80 but note that we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario since the fall from 85.51. As long as price stays above 79.80 price is still in a consolidation phase from an h4 chart point of view.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Price is now struggling around 80.85 support area. Another clear break below that area and the trend line support (red) could trigger further bearish pressure testing 79.80 but note that we need a clear break below 79.80 to continue the bearish scenario since the fall from 85.51. As long as price stays above 79.80 price is still in a consolidation phase from an h4 chart point of view.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 114.17 but closed higher at 115.27. There are some downside pressures earlier today in Asian session and another clear break below 114.50 could trigger another bearish pressure retesting 114.00 support area. A clear break below 114.00 could continue the bearish scenario testing 112.05. Immediate resistance remains around 116.00 followed by 117.00/50.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 114.17 but closed higher at 115.27. There are some downside pressures earlier today in Asian session and another clear break below 114.50 could trigger another bearish pressure retesting 114.00 support area. A clear break below 114.00 could continue the bearish scenario testing 112.05. Immediate resistance remains around 116.00 followed by 117.00/50.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 132.97 and hit 131.27 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we seem to have a good intraday support around 130.90 as you can see on my h4 chart below. We need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario testing 130.20. A clear break below 130.20 could continue the bearish scenario testing 129.16 support area. Immediate resistance at 132.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 132.97 but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a clear break above 132.97 and hit 131.27 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we seem to have a good intraday support around 130.90 as you can see on my h4 chart below. We need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario testing 130.20. A clear break below 130.20 could continue the bearish scenario testing 129.16 support area. Immediate resistance at 132.00. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 132.97 but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 1.0581/40 support area and traded higher around 1.0627 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that after the fall from 1.1010 historical high, price made a lower high at 1.0887 where a trend line resistance can be drawn. As long as price stays below 1.0887 and the trend line resistance, this pair is still in a bearish correction outlook, but need a clear break below 1.0581/40 to continue the bearish phase testing 1.0440 even lower. Immediate resistance remains around 1.0704 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0750 – 1.0779 resistance area, even testing the trend line resistance. The major bullish scenario remains intact but my bullish mode will be reactivated at least by a movement above the trend line resistance and 1.0887, aiming for another new historical high.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 1.0581/40 support area and traded higher around 1.0627 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that after the fall from 1.1010 historical high, price made a lower high at 1.0887 where a trend line resistance can be drawn. As long as price stays below 1.0887 and the trend line resistance, this pair is still in a bearish correction outlook, but need a clear break below 1.0581/40 to continue the bearish phase testing 1.0440 even lower. Immediate resistance remains around 1.0704 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0750 – 1.0779 resistance area, even testing the trend line resistance. The major bullish scenario remains intact but my bullish mode will be reactivated at least by a movement above the trend line resistance and 1.0887, aiming for another new historical high.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish weekly outlook threatened as bearish continues


The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum this week, bottomed at 1.4065 and closed at 1.4115 on Friday. The Euro failed to continue the bullish outlook which led by the breakout above the trend line resistance on April and now slipped back below the trend line resistance as you can see on my weekly chart below and price is now testing April’s low at 1.4061. A clear break below 1.4061 – 1.4000 key support area could trigger further bearish outlook testing 1.3782 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1875 – 1.4939. Immediate resistance at 1.4200 followed by 1.4440. As long as price moves below 1.4440 my short/medium technical bias remains to the downside.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish weekly outlook threatened as bearish continues


The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum this week, bottomed at 1.4065 and closed at 1.4115 on Friday. The Euro failed to continue the bullish outlook which led by the breakout above the trend line resistance on April and now slipped back below the trend line resistance as you can see on my weekly chart below and price is now testing April’s low at 1.4061. A clear break below 1.4061 – 1.4000 key support area could trigger further bearish outlook testing 1.3782 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1875 – 1.4939. Immediate resistance at 1.4200 followed by 1.4440. As long as price moves below 1.4440 my short/medium technical bias remains to the downside.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook


EUR/USD's fall from 1.4938 extended further to as low as 1.4066 last week and the break of 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) argues that whole rise from 1.2873 has completed at 1.4938 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside initially this week and deeper fall should now be seen to 1.3427/3860 support zone next. On the upside, above 1.4338 resistance is needed to suggest near term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook


EUR/USD's fall from 1.4938 extended further to as low as 1.4066 last week and the break of 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) argues that whole rise from 1.2873 has completed at 1.4938 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside initially this week and deeper fall should now be seen to 1.3427/3860 support zone next. On the upside, above 1.4338 resistance is needed to suggest near term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's decline from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6416 last week and broke 1.6166 support. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should now be seen towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's decline from 1.6744 extended further to as low as 1.6416 last week and broke 1.6166 support. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should now be seen towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.