تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8552 extended further to as high as 0.8495 last week and is now in key near term resistance zone of 0.8895/9006. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with focus on 0.9006 resistance. Sustained break there will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, reversal from the current resistance zone of 0.8895/9006, followed by break of 0.8797 minor support will retain the bearish case and flip bias back to the downside for a new low below 0.8552.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8552 extended further to as high as 0.8495 last week and is now in key near term resistance zone of 0.8895/9006. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with focus on 0.9006 resistance. Sustained break there will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, reversal from the current resistance zone of 0.8895/9006, followed by break of 0.8797 minor support will retain the bearish case and flip bias back to the downside for a new low below 0.8552.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. The current down trend might now be targeting next projection level of 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's consolidation from 1.1010 continued last week with another dip towards the end. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.1010 to 1.0536 from 1.0887 at 1.0413. On the upside, above 1.0715 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.0887 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's consolidation from 1.1010 continued last week with another dip towards the end. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.1010 to 1.0536 from 1.0887 at 1.0413. On the upside, above 1.0715 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.0887 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. AUD/USD is staying comfortably inside medium term rising channel. Current rise should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 next. On the downside, break of 1.0254 resistance turned support will, however, suggest that 1.1010 is a medium top and in such case, deeper decline would be seen towards 0.9404 support to correct the whole up trend from 0.6008.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is no sign of loss of momentum yet. Sustained trading above this level will target 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 resumed by taking out 0.9710/20 last week. More important, a head and shoulder bottom bottom pattern should be formed (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512) and 0.9444 might be a medium term bottom. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9444 to 0.9710 from 0.9512 at 0.9778 first. Break will affirm the case of medium term revive and target key resistance at 0.9972. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.9444 low instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indicate that medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has completed yet. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9444 resumed by taking out 0.9710/20 last week. More important, a head and shoulder bottom bottom pattern should be formed (ls: 0.9525, h: 0.9444, rs: 0.9512) and 0.9444 might be a medium term bottom. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9444 to 0.9710 from 0.9512 at 0.9778 first. Break will affirm the case of medium term revive and target key resistance at 0.9972. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 0.9444 low instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no indicate that medium term down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has completed yet. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall could be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9972 will suggest that USD/CAD has indeed bottomed out already and should bring stronger rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.0063) first.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continued to consolidate above 79.58 temporary low last week and outlook remains unchanged. With 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery could still be seen. But evening that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continued to consolidate above 79.58 temporary low last week and outlook remains unchanged. With 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery could still be seen. But evening that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP dropped further to 0.8672 last week but drew support from 0.8671 resistance turned support and near term rising channel and recovered. However, upside is so far upside below 0.8817 minor resistance and thus, there is no indication of near term bottoming yet. A break of 0.8672 will indicate resumption of fall from 0.9041. More important this will argue that whole rise from 0.8284, is completed already and will bring deeper decline to medium term rising trend line (now at 0.8422). On the upside, though, extending rebound from current level and break of 0.8817 will suggest that pull back from 0.9041 has completed and will bring stronger rise to retest this high.
In the bigger picture, current development is now mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure in turn indicate that whole fall from 0.9799 (2008 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Sustained break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP dropped further to 0.8672 last week but drew support from 0.8671 resistance turned support and near term rising channel and recovered. However, upside is so far upside below 0.8817 minor resistance and thus, there is no indication of near term bottoming yet. A break of 0.8672 will indicate resumption of fall from 0.9041. More important this will argue that whole rise from 0.8284, is completed already and will bring deeper decline to medium term rising trend line (now at 0.8422). On the upside, though, extending rebound from current level and break of 0.8817 will suggest that pull back from 0.9041 has completed and will bring stronger rise to retest this high.
In the bigger picture, current development is now mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure in turn indicate that whole fall from 0.9799 (2008 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Sustained break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dropped further to 1.2484 last week then turned sideway. INitial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dropped further to 1.2484 last week then turned sideway. INitial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 extended further to as low as 113.49 last week and remains weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has indeed completed at 123.31 already. In such case, further fall should be seen to retest 106.57 low next. On the upside, break of 117.57 resistance is needed to signal bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the current development argues that medium term rebound from 105.42 has possibly finished with three waves up to 123.31. In other words, it's merely a correction pattern inside the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will pave the way for a retest on 105.42 low first. On the upside, however, break of 123.31 will revive that case that down trend from 169.96 has indeed completed at 105.42 already and will turn outlook bullish again.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development raised the possibility that the 105.42 is not yet the bottom. In case of another fall, we'll continue to look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's fall from 123.31 extended further to as low as 113.49 last week and remains weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has indeed completed at 123.31 already. In such case, further fall should be seen to retest 106.57 low next. On the upside, break of 117.57 resistance is needed to signal bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the current development argues that medium term rebound from 105.42 has possibly finished with three waves up to 123.31. In other words, it's merely a correction pattern inside the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will pave the way for a retest on 105.42 low first. On the upside, however, break of 123.31 will revive that case that down trend from 169.96 has indeed completed at 105.42 already and will turn outlook bullish again.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development raised the possibility that the 105.42 is not yet the bottom. In case of another fall, we'll continue to look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's recovery was limited at 134.00 and subsequent break of 130.88 support confirmed that whole decline from 139.99 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained break of 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, break of 134.00 resistance is now needed to signal completion of the fall from 139.99. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Current development now favors that case that rebound from 122.40 is merely a correction in three waves that's completed at 139.99. In other words, fall from 163.05 is not over yet. Sustained break of 130.17 support will bring a new low below 122.40. Though, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, decisive break of 139.99 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's recovery was limited at 134.00 and subsequent break of 130.88 support confirmed that whole decline from 139.99 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained break of 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, break of 134.00 resistance is now needed to signal completion of the fall from 139.99. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Current development now favors that case that rebound from 122.40 is merely a correction in three waves that's completed at 139.99. In other words, fall from 163.05 is not over yet. Sustained break of 130.17 support will bring a new low below 122.40. Though, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, decisive break of 139.99 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.4065 and hit 1.4047 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.4000 key support area. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3800 – 1.3700 area this week. Immediate resistance at 1.4123 – 1.4150. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4200 but overall my short/medium term technical bias remains strongly to the downside and no sign of potential recovery for the single currency so far. CCI remains in negative territory on hourly, h4 and daily chart suggests a bearish view.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.4065 and hit 1.4047 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.4000 key support area. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3800 – 1.3700 area this week. Immediate resistance at 1.4123 – 1.4150. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4200 but overall my short/medium term technical bias remains strongly to the downside and no sign of potential recovery for the single currency so far. CCI remains in negative territory on hourly, h4 and daily chart suggests a bearish view.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6145 but still unable to move consistently below 1.6164 support area so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.6164 testing 1.6000 – 1.5970 key support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6230/50. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6300/50 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6145 but still unable to move consistently below 1.6164 support area so far. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.6164 testing 1.6000 – 1.5970 key support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6230/50. A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6300/50 resistance area but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.