تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Consolidation from 79.58 is still in progress and with 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Consolidation from 79.58 is still in progress and with 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and sustained trading below 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, break of 134.00 resistance is now needed to signal completion of the fall from 139.99. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Current development now favors that case that rebound from 122.40 is merely a correction in three waves that's completed at 139.99. In other words, fall from 163.05 is not over yet. Sustained break of 130.17 support will bring a new low below 122.40. Though, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, decisive break of 139.99 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and sustained trading below 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, break of 134.00 resistance is now needed to signal completion of the fall from 139.99. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. Current development now favors that case that rebound from 122.40 is merely a correction in three waves that's completed at 139.99. In other words, fall from 163.05 is not over yet. Sustained break of 130.17 support will bring a new low below 122.40. Though, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, decisive break of 139.99 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and sustained trading below 113.54 support will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has indeed completed at 123.31 already. In such case, further fall should be seen to retest 106.57 low next. On the upside, break of 117.57 resistance is needed to signal bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the current development argues that medium term rebound from 105.42 has possibly finished with three waves up to 123.31. In other words, it's merely a correction pattern inside the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will pave the way for a retest on 105.42 low first. On the upside, however, break of 123.31 will revive that case that down trend from 169.96 has indeed completed at 105.42 already and will turn outlook bullish again.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and sustained trading below 113.54 support will indicate that whole rebound from 106.57 has indeed completed at 123.31 already. In such case, further fall should be seen to retest 106.57 low next. On the upside, break of 117.57 resistance is needed to signal bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish for deeper fall.
In the bigger picture, the current development argues that medium term rebound from 105.42 has possibly finished with three waves up to 123.31. In other words, it's merely a correction pattern inside the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Sustained trading below 113.54 support will pave the way for a retest on 105.42 low first. On the upside, however, break of 123.31 will revive that case that down trend from 169.96 has indeed completed at 105.42 already and will turn outlook bullish again.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 1.2484 continues. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidations from 1.2484 continues. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited well below 1.2961 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2484 will target a retest on 1..2401 low first. As noted before, whole consolidation pattern from 1.2401 should have completed at 1.3234 already. Decisive break of 1.2401 will resume the longer term down trend for 1.2 psychological level first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP continues to stay in tight range above 0.8672 after it drew support from near term rising channel and intraday bias remains neutral. Nevertheless, note again that with 0.8813 minor resistance intact, there is no indication of near term bottoming yet. On the downside, below 0.8672 will resume the decline from 0.9041. More important this will argue that whole rise from 0.8284, is completed already and will bring deeper decline to medium term rising trend line (now at 0.8429). On the upside, though, extending rebound from current level and break of 0.8817 will suggest that pull back from 0.9041 has completed and will bring stronger rise to retest this high.
In the bigger picture, current development is now mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure in turn indicate that whole fall from 0.9799 (2008 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Sustained break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP continues to stay in tight range above 0.8672 after it drew support from near term rising channel and intraday bias remains neutral. Nevertheless, note again that with 0.8813 minor resistance intact, there is no indication of near term bottoming yet. On the downside, below 0.8672 will resume the decline from 0.9041. More important this will argue that whole rise from 0.8284, is completed already and will bring deeper decline to medium term rising trend line (now at 0.8429). On the upside, though, extending rebound from current level and break of 0.8817 will suggest that pull back from 0.9041 has completed and will bring stronger rise to retest this high.
In the bigger picture, current development is now mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.8067 has completed with three waves up to 0.9041. The corrective structure in turn indicate that whole fall from 0.9799 (2008 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.8067 before completed. Sustained break of 0.8671 support will affirm this case and target a test on 0.8067/8284 support zone next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9041 again will re-affirm the case that medium term correction from 0.9799 has completed with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. In such case, the long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming for another high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD formed a temporary low at 1.4047 on lost of downside momentum and recovers. But still, with 1.4338 resistance intact, fall from 1.4938 is expected to resume sooner or later. As noted before, whole rise from 1.2873 has possibly completed at 1.4938 already. Below 1.4047 will target 1.3427/3860 support zone next. Though, a break of 1.4338 will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD formed a temporary low at 1.4047 on lost of downside momentum and recovers. But still, with 1.4338 resistance intact, fall from 1.4938 is expected to resume sooner or later. As noted before, whole rise from 1.2873 has possibly completed at 1.4938 already. Below 1.4047 will target 1.3427/3860 support zone next. Though, a break of 1.4338 will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3430) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4938 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.

[m.youssif]

With 1.6307 minor resistance intact, intraday bias GBP/USD remains on the downside. Current decline from 1.6744 is expected to continue towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone.

[m.youssif]

With 1.6307 minor resistance intact, intraday bias GBP/USD remains on the downside. Current decline from 1.6744 is expected to continue towards key near term support level at 1.5935. On the upside, above 1.6307 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.5935 support will indicate that rise from 1.4230 is completed and further break of 1.5343 will confirm this case and target 1.3503/4230 support zone.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top should be in place at 0.8945 and intraday bias is turned neutral. USD/CHF is still limited inside near term falling channel and there is no indicate of reversal. Below 0.8797 will suggest that corrective rebound from 0.8552 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption. On the upside, focus will remain on 0.9006. Sustained break there will will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9005) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, before that, we'll stay bearish.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top should be in place at 0.8945 and intraday bias is turned neutral. USD/CHF is still limited inside near term falling channel and there is no indicate of reversal. Below 0.8797 will suggest that corrective rebound from 0.8552 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption. On the upside, focus will remain on 0.9006. Sustained break there will will also have near term falling channel, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 0.9005) taken out. Such development will suggest that USD/CHF has formed a medium term bottom at 0.8552 and stronger rise should then be seen towards 0.9339 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, before that, we'll stay bearish.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.8552 is strong, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Whole decline from 1.1729 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7798. However, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 0.9009) will indicate that 0.8552 should be a medium term bottom and USD/CHF should then rebound back into 0.9462/1.0065 resistance zone instead.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continued to stay in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. With 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY continued to stay in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. With 80.15 minor support intact, another recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 82.76 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.15 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 79.58 will target a retest on 76.40 spike low. Nevertheless, break of 82.76 resistance will turn focus back to 85.51 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 76.40 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is now needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4243 but closed lower at 1.4144. On hourly chart below we can see since the strong break below the range area price made some upside pullback but still making lower highs before continue the bearish run and hit new daily lows. From this point of view, yesterday’s bullish pullback was normal and the current strong bearish outlook remains intact especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.4123/50, still targeting 1.4000 which is a key support level at this phase. Immediate resistance at 1.4243 (yesterday’s high). I don’t expect another bullish pullback above that area as it could diminish the current strong bearish outlook testing 1.4330/50 resistance area and activate my wait and see mode.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4243 but closed lower at 1.4144. On hourly chart below we can see since the strong break below the range area price made some upside pullback but still making lower highs before continue the bearish run and hit new daily lows. From this point of view, yesterday’s bullish pullback was normal and the current strong bearish outlook remains intact especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.4123/50, still targeting 1.4000 which is a key support level at this phase. Immediate resistance at 1.4243 (yesterday’s high). I don’t expect another bullish pullback above that area as it could diminish the current strong bearish outlook testing 1.4330/50 resistance area and activate my wait and see mode.