التداول بعيون الحيتان : صفقات الكبار

[Зиюс]

Fading Fed rate hike expectations may risk a squeeze of EUR shorts after this week's FOMC. A soft patch for the US economy has disappointed those expecting rate hikes, sending USD lower since the March FOMC and 10-yr UST yields down 13 bps. But EUR/USD shorts are USD 2.5 bln larger over that time. If the Fed meets dovish expectations, a short squeeze seems likely. Unlike in March, the sideways trading is making those short EUR nervous. A bid for USD/Asia has also dissipated. ACBs won't be intervening to buy back those USDs in the majors as they were in March. Such flows led to ACB EUR/USD selling over 1.1000, which was key in establishing the top near there after the March NFPs. With 78% of USD longs held versus EUR vs 50% in early March, a surprisingly hawkish Fed could see EUR/crosses boosted as players re-establish USD longs vs other currencies than EUR. (IFR)

[Зиюс]

Fading Fed rate hike expectations may risk a squeeze of EUR shorts after this week's FOMC. A soft patch for the US economy has disappointed those expecting rate hikes, sending USD lower since the March FOMC and 10-yr UST yields down 13 bps. But EUR/USD shorts are USD 2.5 bln larger over that time. If the Fed meets dovish expectations, a short squeeze seems likely. Unlike in March, the sideways trading is making those short EUR nervous. A bid for USD/Asia has also dissipated. ACBs won't be intervening to buy back those USDs in the majors as they were in March. Such flows led to ACB EUR/USD selling over 1.1000, which was key in establishing the top near there after the March NFPs. With 78% of USD longs held versus EUR vs 50% in early March, a surprisingly hawkish Fed could see EUR/crosses boosted as players re-establish USD longs vs other currencies than EUR. (IFR)

[Зиюс]

CAPITAL ECONOMICS:
With the election just days away, the news that the UK'€™s economic recovery slowed sharply in the first quarter clearly won'€™t help the coalition parties, but this slowdown should just be temporary. The preliminary estimate of a 0.3% quarterly rise in GDP in Q1 was weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% rise (and even our forecast of a 0.4% increase). Construction output fell by 1.6% q/q, while manufacturing output rose by just 0.1%. And although services output rose by 0.5%, this was much weaker than Q4's 0.9% rise.

Nonetheless, we doubt that the recovery is on the cusp of a sustained slowdown. Households'€™ real incomes are still on track for their strongest growth this year since 2006. And the business surveys remain upbeat and consistent with quarterly GDP growth returning to 0.7% or 0.8% quarterly rates soon. Indeed, Q1’s figure could eventually be revised up to these sorts of rates (although obviously not in time to help the incumbent government). We still think that the economy will grow by close to 3% this year as a whole.

[Зиюс]

CAPITAL ECONOMICS:
With the election just days away, the news that the UK'€™s economic recovery slowed sharply in the first quarter clearly won'€™t help the coalition parties, but this slowdown should just be temporary. The preliminary estimate of a 0.3% quarterly rise in GDP in Q1 was weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% rise (and even our forecast of a 0.4% increase). Construction output fell by 1.6% q/q, while manufacturing output rose by just 0.1%. And although services output rose by 0.5%, this was much weaker than Q4's 0.9% rise.

Nonetheless, we doubt that the recovery is on the cusp of a sustained slowdown. Households'€™ real incomes are still on track for their strongest growth this year since 2006. And the business surveys remain upbeat and consistent with quarterly GDP growth returning to 0.7% or 0.8% quarterly rates soon. Indeed, Q1’s figure could eventually be revised up to these sorts of rates (although obviously not in time to help the incumbent government). We still think that the economy will grow by close to 3% this year as a whole.

[Зиюс]

GS: G10 FX – LONDON SPOT TRADER VIEWS
OVERVIEW => Ahead of events later this week, we maintain our conservative stance (less than 25% of maximum risk) and hold on to our long USD position mainly vs EUR.
{EU} EURUSD Lower => We maintain our moderate positioning here and prefer to be flexible on the lookout for short term opportunities. Key levels for the session: resistance at 1.0927 and then 1.0950, with support back towards 1.0820 and 1.0780-85.
{GB} GBPUSD Lower => The break of 1.52 opens up decent space on the upside without major resistance levels. Key technical levels: resistance now around 1.5315 with little notable points above, and support back at 1.5170-80.
{JN} USDJPY Lower=> We maintain our bias to be short at these levels, with technical levels to watch: support at 118.75-80, then 118.50 and 118.00, while on the topside resistance at the 119.40-50 area.

[Зиюс]

GS: G10 FX – LONDON SPOT TRADER VIEWS
OVERVIEW => Ahead of events later this week, we maintain our conservative stance (less than 25% of maximum risk) and hold on to our long USD position mainly vs EUR.
{EU} EURUSD Lower => We maintain our moderate positioning here and prefer to be flexible on the lookout for short term opportunities. Key levels for the session: resistance at 1.0927 and then 1.0950, with support back towards 1.0820 and 1.0780-85.
{GB} GBPUSD Lower => The break of 1.52 opens up decent space on the upside without major resistance levels. Key technical levels: resistance now around 1.5315 with little notable points above, and support back at 1.5170-80.
{JN} USDJPY Lower=> We maintain our bias to be short at these levels, with technical levels to watch: support at 118.75-80, then 118.50 and 118.00, while on the topside resistance at the 119.40-50 area.

[Зиюс]

[COLOR="rgb(46, 139, 87)"]

كريدى سويس
Today’s trades/positions:
 EURUSD: Short at 1.0895, stop above 1.0960, for 1.0670.
 USDJPY: Flat. Buy at 118.75, stop/reverse below 118.15, for 120.30.
 GBPUSD: Long, stop below 1.4960, for 1.5332.
 USDCHF: Long at .9530, stop/reverse below .9447, for .9790.
 AUDUSD: Reversed to a long at .7850, stop below .7791, for .7914/39.
 NZDUSD: Short at .7670, stop/reverse above .7745, for .7425.
 USDCAD: Short at 1.2250, stop above 1.2330, for 1.2005.
 EURJPY: Short at 129.20, stop above 130.40, for 126.15.
 EURGBP: Short at .7350, stop above .7440, for .7015.

[/COLOR]

[Зиюс]

[COLOR="rgb(46, 139, 87)"]

كريدى سويس
Today’s trades/positions:
 EURUSD: Short at 1.0895, stop above 1.0960, for 1.0670.
 USDJPY: Flat. Buy at 118.75, stop/reverse below 118.15, for 120.30.
 GBPUSD: Long, stop below 1.4960, for 1.5332.
 USDCHF: Long at .9530, stop/reverse below .9447, for .9790.
 AUDUSD: Reversed to a long at .7850, stop below .7791, for .7914/39.
 NZDUSD: Short at .7670, stop/reverse above .7745, for .7425.
 USDCAD: Short at 1.2250, stop above 1.2330, for 1.2005.
 EURJPY: Short at 129.20, stop above 130.40, for 126.15.
 EURGBP: Short at .7350, stop above .7440, for .7015.

[/COLOR]

[Зиюс]

جى بى مورجان

TECHNICAL UPDATE
With the USD maintaining a heavy tone following last week’s poor performance, the focus stays on the next line of
important support levels which should define whether a deeper corrective phase is underway. In this regard, the
focus stays on the DXY and JPM USD Index as key near term levels remain well-defined. The follow-through
weakness for the DXY after failing at key initial resistance in the 98.45/70 zone has led to a push below the
96.75/65. In turn, a closer test of the important 96.33/17 range lows is expected. Moreover, note the JPM USD
Index sees important support at the 96.00/95.90 short term range lows. Violations here should confirm a deeper
short term corrective phase. For the individual pairs, we also see an important test as the bounce in EUR/USD from
the 1.0660/20 support zone shifts the focus to near term resistance starting at the 1.0925/60 zone with breaks
allowing for a closer test of the range highs near 1.1053/65. Again, this area should define whether a more
sustained corrective phase is underway. The late week decline for USD/JPY shifts the focus back to the 118.52/00
support zone which includes the March low. Breaks should confirm a deteriorating setup and risk of a deeper
pullback. Note the 120.10/85 levels remain key resistance and should help define a retest of the March peak. With
regards to the commodity currencies, yesterday’s outperformance turns the focus to the next line of key levels. For
AUD/USD, the push through key initial resistance in the .7844 area (mid-April high) suggests a closer test of the
more important .7939 March peak and short term range highs. Again, this area will define whether a deeper
corrective phase can develop. Despite last week’s pullback, yesterday’s bounce in NZD/USD highlights the
importance of the .7520/7495 support zone (March uptrendline). Above the .7665/70 breakdown area from last
week would shift the focus back to the .7742/57 zone which includes last week’s high. The heavy price action for
USD/CAD continues to develop following the breakdown below 1.2350 range lows as the focus turns to the
important 1.21/1.19 support zone (38.2% retrace from Nov/July, BoC breakout area from Jan) and where some
retracement is due.

[Зиюс]

جى بى مورجان

TECHNICAL UPDATE
With the USD maintaining a heavy tone following last week’s poor performance, the focus stays on the next line of
important support levels which should define whether a deeper corrective phase is underway. In this regard, the
focus stays on the DXY and JPM USD Index as key near term levels remain well-defined. The follow-through
weakness for the DXY after failing at key initial resistance in the 98.45/70 zone has led to a push below the
96.75/65. In turn, a closer test of the important 96.33/17 range lows is expected. Moreover, note the JPM USD
Index sees important support at the 96.00/95.90 short term range lows. Violations here should confirm a deeper
short term corrective phase. For the individual pairs, we also see an important test as the bounce in EUR/USD from
the 1.0660/20 support zone shifts the focus to near term resistance starting at the 1.0925/60 zone with breaks
allowing for a closer test of the range highs near 1.1053/65. Again, this area should define whether a more
sustained corrective phase is underway. The late week decline for USD/JPY shifts the focus back to the 118.52/00
support zone which includes the March low. Breaks should confirm a deteriorating setup and risk of a deeper
pullback. Note the 120.10/85 levels remain key resistance and should help define a retest of the March peak. With
regards to the commodity currencies, yesterday’s outperformance turns the focus to the next line of key levels. For
AUD/USD, the push through key initial resistance in the .7844 area (mid-April high) suggests a closer test of the
more important .7939 March peak and short term range highs. Again, this area will define whether a deeper
corrective phase can develop. Despite last week’s pullback, yesterday’s bounce in NZD/USD highlights the
importance of the .7520/7495 support zone (March uptrendline). Above the .7665/70 breakdown area from last
week would shift the focus back to the .7742/57 zone which includes last week’s high. The heavy price action for
USD/CAD continues to develop following the breakdown below 1.2350 range lows as the focus turns to the
important 1.21/1.19 support zone (38.2% retrace from Nov/July, BoC breakout area from Jan) and where some
retracement is due.

[Зиюс]

Citi: EURUSD flow update
Net buying is emerging as turnover picks up in EURUSD. The buying has been led by corporates, with leveraged names actually small sellers on the day. EURUSD is now comfortably above the 50d MA (1.0887) with the 55d now looming at 1.0932.

[Зиюс]

Citi: EURUSD flow update
Net buying is emerging as turnover picks up in EURUSD. The buying has been led by corporates, with leveraged names actually small sellers on the day. EURUSD is now comfortably above the 50d MA (1.0887) with the 55d now looming at 1.0932.

[Зиюс]

سوستيه جنرال
 The Fed’s two-day meeting starts today but markets are finding it pretty easy to contain their
excitement. A dovish statement and no policy moves are universally expected. Today we get
consumer confidence, Case-Shiller house price and Richmond Fed manufacturing data, which
won’t add much to the debate, while yesterday’s dip in the services PMI to 57.4 from 59.2
supports the notion that the US economy is growing, but not as fast as it was or as some would
like it to.
 The US is the only market where 2-year rates are higher now than they were six months ago
(14bp higher) and that in turn is reflected in the dollar having gone up against all the rest of
G10FX. But if we look at the last three months, US rates are up only 6bp, and we’ve had bigger
rises in NOK, GBP and CAD. At the risk of stating the obvious, the dollar, up between 8% *vs
CHF) and 24% (vs SEK) over the last year, has been re-priced on monetary policy divergence
and won’t make further headway until that trend resumes. In the meantime, the FX market is
once again gravitating towards yield – and the four currencies with the highest rates in G10 are
indeed the ones which have done best this week. It sounds like a recipe for lower volatility and
for money to leach towards emerging markets (again) until the US rate outlook changes again.
 Overnight data saw a sharp fall in retail sales in Japan (-9.7% y/y, distorted by last year’s
pre-consumption tax jump, but still awful). Strong Apple earnings, ongoing talk of QE in China,
and strong house price gains in Sydney made headlines too. Today, other than the US data we
have UK GDP, expected to slow to 0.5% q/q and 2.6% y/y as a result of weaker construction.
UK growth expectations are now heading slowly lower. Sterling is unlikely to react much unless
the data are softer than expected, though we are in the ‘sell zone’ for GBP/USD now.
 The Japanese data failed to prevent a strong day for the Nikkei, and didn’t move USD/JPY,
any more than yesterday’s downgrade by Fitch did. CFTC data suggest short yen positions are
being cut back aggressively but USD/JPY risk-reversals are still heavily skewed to the upside
and this probably needs to correct before we can put strategic long USD/JPY positions back on.
Like many trades, this one, too, waits on the Fed..,..

[Зиюс]

سوستيه جنرال
 The Fed’s two-day meeting starts today but markets are finding it pretty easy to contain their
excitement. A dovish statement and no policy moves are universally expected. Today we get
consumer confidence, Case-Shiller house price and Richmond Fed manufacturing data, which
won’t add much to the debate, while yesterday’s dip in the services PMI to 57.4 from 59.2
supports the notion that the US economy is growing, but not as fast as it was or as some would
like it to.
 The US is the only market where 2-year rates are higher now than they were six months ago
(14bp higher) and that in turn is reflected in the dollar having gone up against all the rest of
G10FX. But if we look at the last three months, US rates are up only 6bp, and we’ve had bigger
rises in NOK, GBP and CAD. At the risk of stating the obvious, the dollar, up between 8% *vs
CHF) and 24% (vs SEK) over the last year, has been re-priced on monetary policy divergence
and won’t make further headway until that trend resumes. In the meantime, the FX market is
once again gravitating towards yield – and the four currencies with the highest rates in G10 are
indeed the ones which have done best this week. It sounds like a recipe for lower volatility and
for money to leach towards emerging markets (again) until the US rate outlook changes again.
 Overnight data saw a sharp fall in retail sales in Japan (-9.7% y/y, distorted by last year’s
pre-consumption tax jump, but still awful). Strong Apple earnings, ongoing talk of QE in China,
and strong house price gains in Sydney made headlines too. Today, other than the US data we
have UK GDP, expected to slow to 0.5% q/q and 2.6% y/y as a result of weaker construction.
UK growth expectations are now heading slowly lower. Sterling is unlikely to react much unless
the data are softer than expected, though we are in the ‘sell zone’ for GBP/USD now.
 The Japanese data failed to prevent a strong day for the Nikkei, and didn’t move USD/JPY,
any more than yesterday’s downgrade by Fitch did. CFTC data suggest short yen positions are
being cut back aggressively but USD/JPY risk-reversals are still heavily skewed to the upside
and this probably needs to correct before we can put strategic long USD/JPY positions back on.
Like many trades, this one, too, waits on the Fed..,..

[Зиюс]

يو بى اس


Spot Desk - Upside Room In AUDUSD
EURUSD was bid Monday but lacked follow through and has opened almost unchanged in Europe. We don't trust this move overall but may have to accept the bid tone ahead of the month-end. Keep it tight and stay flexible for now, only getting involved at the extremes.
USDCHF slipped to 0.9495 from 0.9560 Monday as the market wanted to buy Swiss francs for what seemed to be early transaction of month-end flows. The pair held the important support ahead of 0.9480-90. We expect similar moves today with very little in terms of data releases. Sell rallies to 0.9570-80. EURCHF remains stuck in the 1.0350-1.0420 range with limited interest; play this range for now.
Sterling broke higher late in New York and is starting to test the March highs. We still believe it's a sell up here but technically, there may be room towards the February high. Stay on the sideline today and watch if EURUSD gets capped before selling Cable. UK preliminary GDP will be out today.
USDJPY traded in an extremely quiet 18-pip range overnight with the market awaiting the BoJ decision on Thursday. Boy on dips ahead of the first bigger support around 118.80 with stops below 118.50, targeting Monday's highs.
AUDUSD turned bid late Monday when gold started rallying and broke above 0 .7850, where it was capped earlier this month. RBA Governor Stevens declined to comment on monetary policy ahead of next week's RBA meeting. The pair might still have some room on the upside but we prefer to start fading ahead of the March high of 0.7940 with stops above 0.8050.
NZDUSD is a touch higher as the US dollar came under pressure on Monday, but the market seems to be preparing for a dovish RBNZ tomorrow. AUDNZD has been steadily grinding higher. The next levels on the upside are 1.0455 and 1.0545. We see more room of position adjustments in Kiwi ahead of the meeting but expectations for a dovish RBNZ are accordingly rising.
USDCAD remains heavy as commodities are resilient. The pair is capped at 1.2350 and supported at 1.2060. There is a longer-term uptrend line around 1.1950. Enter fresh longs at 1.20, above the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0623-1.2836 move with a tight stop at 1.1925. Watch BoC Governor Poloz's comments later today.
EURSEK remains rangebound with steady buying interest on dips that get capped at 9.40. Watch Sweden consumer confidence and retail sales data today. EURNOK is holding the 8.30-8.55 range. It has been trading soft for the past few days with NOKSEK inching higher, which seems driven by the interest rate differential and oil having found some support.
Gold had a quiet start on Monday but then ran stops up to $1207.30 from $1188 as two massive buy orders hit the CME during the auction. This move came even though equities closed at an all-time high and Greece reshuffled the team for bailout negotiations. Despite the move today, we still recommend being short gold, with stops placed at the 1215/20 area, targeting 1180/1150 area.

[Зиюс]

يو بى اس


Spot Desk - Upside Room In AUDUSD
EURUSD was bid Monday but lacked follow through and has opened almost unchanged in Europe. We don't trust this move overall but may have to accept the bid tone ahead of the month-end. Keep it tight and stay flexible for now, only getting involved at the extremes.
USDCHF slipped to 0.9495 from 0.9560 Monday as the market wanted to buy Swiss francs for what seemed to be early transaction of month-end flows. The pair held the important support ahead of 0.9480-90. We expect similar moves today with very little in terms of data releases. Sell rallies to 0.9570-80. EURCHF remains stuck in the 1.0350-1.0420 range with limited interest; play this range for now.
Sterling broke higher late in New York and is starting to test the March highs. We still believe it's a sell up here but technically, there may be room towards the February high. Stay on the sideline today and watch if EURUSD gets capped before selling Cable. UK preliminary GDP will be out today.
USDJPY traded in an extremely quiet 18-pip range overnight with the market awaiting the BoJ decision on Thursday. Boy on dips ahead of the first bigger support around 118.80 with stops below 118.50, targeting Monday's highs.
AUDUSD turned bid late Monday when gold started rallying and broke above 0 .7850, where it was capped earlier this month. RBA Governor Stevens declined to comment on monetary policy ahead of next week's RBA meeting. The pair might still have some room on the upside but we prefer to start fading ahead of the March high of 0.7940 with stops above 0.8050.
NZDUSD is a touch higher as the US dollar came under pressure on Monday, but the market seems to be preparing for a dovish RBNZ tomorrow. AUDNZD has been steadily grinding higher. The next levels on the upside are 1.0455 and 1.0545. We see more room of position adjustments in Kiwi ahead of the meeting but expectations for a dovish RBNZ are accordingly rising.
USDCAD remains heavy as commodities are resilient. The pair is capped at 1.2350 and supported at 1.2060. There is a longer-term uptrend line around 1.1950. Enter fresh longs at 1.20, above the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0623-1.2836 move with a tight stop at 1.1925. Watch BoC Governor Poloz's comments later today.
EURSEK remains rangebound with steady buying interest on dips that get capped at 9.40. Watch Sweden consumer confidence and retail sales data today. EURNOK is holding the 8.30-8.55 range. It has been trading soft for the past few days with NOKSEK inching higher, which seems driven by the interest rate differential and oil having found some support.
Gold had a quiet start on Monday but then ran stops up to $1207.30 from $1188 as two massive buy orders hit the CME during the auction. This move came even though equities closed at an all-time high and Greece reshuffled the team for bailout negotiations. Despite the move today, we still recommend being short gold, with stops placed at the 1215/20 area, targeting 1180/1150 area.

[Зиюс]

جولدمان ساكس باع EURUSD امبارح بهدف 1.0560 و استوب 1.1050

[Зиюс]

جولدمان ساكس باع EURUSD امبارح بهدف 1.0560 و استوب 1.1050

[Зиюс]

كنت أتمنى لو أن هناك تفاعلا ايجابيا و أن نتشارك جميعا فى مناقشة هذه الأفكار و التوصيات التى لا تأتى من فراغ و بالتالى لها قيمة كبيرة سواء حققت الهدف أم لا لأنها تكشف الكثير من أساليب تداول الجانب الاخر من السوق ...

أنا أثق انه اذا ما كنا قد تعاونا سويا ... كنا سنحسن من أدائنا فى التداول

بالتوقيق للجميع و تمنياتى لكم بمزيد من الأرباح باذن الله و الأهم الصحة و العافية و السعادة


تحيااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااتى و الى اللقاء

[Зиюс]

كنت أتمنى لو أن هناك تفاعلا ايجابيا و أن نتشارك جميعا فى مناقشة هذه الأفكار و التوصيات التى لا تأتى من فراغ و بالتالى لها قيمة كبيرة سواء حققت الهدف أم لا لأنها تكشف الكثير من أساليب تداول الجانب الاخر من السوق ...

أنا أثق انه اذا ما كنا قد تعاونا سويا ... كنا سنحسن من أدائنا فى التداول

بالتوقيق للجميع و تمنياتى لكم بمزيد من الأرباح باذن الله و الأهم الصحة و العافية و السعادة


تحيااااااااااااااااااااااااااااااتى و الى اللقاء