تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, broke below the triangle formation as you can see on my h1 chart below suggests a bearish technical bias at least targeting 112.50 in nearest term before testing 110.80 in longer term as the upside scenario might have failed now after the failure to maintain position above 114.00. Immediate resistance at 113.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 114.00 but only a clear break above 114.68 would continue the bullish scenario targeting 116.35. Note that the price movement seems to be remains under the influence of Tsunami impact and nuclear crisis in Japan. Although risk aversion sentiment will likely to dominate and keep support broad Yen strength, this kind of sentiment can change quickly anytime.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, broke below the triangle formation as you can see on my h1 chart below suggests a bearish technical bias at least targeting 112.50 in nearest term before testing 110.80 in longer term as the upside scenario might have failed now after the failure to maintain position above 114.00. Immediate resistance at 113.50. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 114.00 but only a clear break above 114.68 would continue the bullish scenario targeting 116.35. Note that the price movement seems to be remains under the influence of Tsunami impact and nuclear crisis in Japan. Although risk aversion sentiment will likely to dominate and keep support broad Yen strength, this kind of sentiment can change quickly anytime.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 129.17 and closed at 128.84. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 129.17 targeting 127.50 even 125.50 in longer term. Immediate resistance at 131.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 132.50 which could be a threat to the bearish scenario. Note that the price movement seems to be remains under the influence of Tsunami impact and nuclear crisis in Japan. Although risk aversion sentiment will likely to dominate and keep support broad Yen strength, this kind of sentiment can change quickly anytime.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 129.17 and closed at 128.84. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 129.17 targeting 127.50 even 125.50 in longer term. Immediate resistance at 131.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 132.50 which could be a threat to the bearish scenario. Note that the price movement seems to be remains under the influence of Tsunami impact and nuclear crisis in Japan. Although risk aversion sentiment will likely to dominate and keep support broad Yen strength, this kind of sentiment can change quickly anytime.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, clearly broken below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my daily chart below, confirms the bearish correction/reversal scenario after hit all time high at 1.0256. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that we probably have a good support around 0.9800 and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.9540. Immediate resistance at 0.9965. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0100 but only a clear break above 1.0100 could cancel the current bearish scenario and open the door for another bullish attempt aiming for new all time highs.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, clearly broken below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my daily chart below, confirms the bearish correction/reversal scenario after hit all time high at 1.0256. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that we probably have a good support around 0.9800 and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.9540. Immediate resistance at 0.9965. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0100 but only a clear break above 1.0100 could cancel the current bearish scenario and open the door for another bullish attempt aiming for new all time highs.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD


With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.4247 and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4048) but downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD


With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.4247 and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4048) but downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside with 1.6291 minor support intact. Current rally should be targeting 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next. On the downside, below 1.6291 minor support will indicate that a temporary top is formed and bring consolidations first. But downside should be contained well above 1.5976 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside with 1.6291 minor support intact. Current rally should be targeting 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next. On the downside, below 1.6291 minor support will indicate that a temporary top is formed and bring consolidations first. But downside should be contained well above 1.5976 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF


Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8921 is still in progress. In case of another recovery, we'd expect upside limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF


Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8921 is still in progress. In case of another recovery, we'd expect upside limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD


Another fall remains mildly in favor in USD/CAD with 0.9862 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 0.9666 has completed at 0.9972 already and 0.9666 is not the bottom yet. Further break of 0.9666 will resume recent down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9862 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD


Another fall remains mildly in favor in USD/CAD with 0.9862 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 0.9666 has completed at 0.9972 already and 0.9666 is not the bottom yet. Further break of 0.9666 will resume recent down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9862 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD
No change in AUD/USD's outlook. AUD/USD is possibly just in sideway consolidations from 1.0181, in form of triangle pattern. That is, recent uptrend is not over yet. Some choppy sideway trading could be seen in near term first. Break of 1.0200 resistance will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to revive the bearish reversal case that AUD/USD has topped out at 1.0254 and target 0.9536 and below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD
No change in AUD/USD's outlook. AUD/USD is possibly just in sideway consolidations from 1.0181, in form of triangle pattern. That is, recent uptrend is not over yet. Some choppy sideway trading could be seen in near term first. Break of 1.0200 resistance will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to revive the bearish reversal case that AUD/USD has topped out at 1.0254 and target 0.9536 and below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 115.53 an intraday bias is turned neutral. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 111.28 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 115.53 an intraday bias is turned neutral. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 111.28 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.