تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP
As noted before, a temporary top is at least in place at 0.8750 after EUR/GBP hit medium term trend line resistance. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 0.8533 support. Break will indicate that whole rise from 0.8284 has likely finished and should bring deeper fall towards 0.8284/8354 support zone. On the upside, note again that sustained trading above medium term fall trend line and 0.8760 will have medium term bullish implication and should bring further rise towards 0.8940 resistance.

In the bigger picture, firstly, fall from 0.9799 is treated as correction to the larger up trend and the question is whether such correction is finished. At this point, EUR/GBP is still limited by medium term falling trend line and thus, there is no confirmation of completion of the correction yet. Another low below 0.8067 could still be seen. Even in that case, we'd continue to look for reversal signal inside 0.7693/8186 support zone. Meanwhile, break of 0.8940 will revive the case that correction from 0.9799 is already completed and will turn outlook bullish for a new high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP
As noted before, a temporary top is at least in place at 0.8750 after EUR/GBP hit medium term trend line resistance. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 0.8533 support. Break will indicate that whole rise from 0.8284 has likely finished and should bring deeper fall towards 0.8284/8354 support zone. On the upside, note again that sustained trading above medium term fall trend line and 0.8760 will have medium term bullish implication and should bring further rise towards 0.8940 resistance.

In the bigger picture, firstly, fall from 0.9799 is treated as correction to the larger up trend and the question is whether such correction is finished. At this point, EUR/GBP is still limited by medium term falling trend line and thus, there is no confirmation of completion of the correction yet. Another low below 0.8067 could still be seen. Even in that case, we'd continue to look for reversal signal inside 0.7693/8186 support zone. Meanwhile, break of 0.8940 will revive the case that correction from 0.9799 is already completed and will turn outlook bullish for a new high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.2886 in EUR/CHF and intraday bias is turned neutral. Though, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.2676 minor support holds. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is possibly the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401. Above 1.2886 will bring another rise to 1.3038 or possibly further to 1.3203 resistance. Though, below 1.2676 will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1.2886 in EUR/CHF and intraday bias is turned neutral. Though, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.2676 minor support holds. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is possibly the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401. Above 1.2886 will bring another rise to 1.3038 or possibly further to 1.3203 resistance. Though, below 1.2676 will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY


At this point, further rise remains mildly in favor in GBP/JPY with 130.44 minor support intact. Though, focus will remain on 135.48 resistance level. As long as 135.48 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first. Below 130.44 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 122.40 and below.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY


At this point, further rise remains mildly in favor in GBP/JPY with 130.44 minor support intact. Though, focus will remain on 135.48 resistance level. As long as 135.48 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first. Below 130.44 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 122.40 and below.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD




Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.4247 continues. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD




Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.4247 continues. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD


No change in AUD/USD's outlook. AUD/USD is possibly just in sideway consolidations from 1.0181, in form of triangle pattern. That is, recent uptrend is not over yet. Some choppy sideway trading could be seen in near term first. Break of 1.0200 resistance will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to revive the bearish reversal case that AUD/USD has topped out at 1.0254 and target 0.9536 and below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD


No change in AUD/USD's outlook. AUD/USD is possibly just in sideway consolidations from 1.0181, in form of triangle pattern. That is, recent uptrend is not over yet. Some choppy sideway trading could be seen in near term first. Break of 1.0200 resistance will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support is needed to revive the bearish reversal case that AUD/USD has topped out at 1.0254 and target 0.9536 and below.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD

Some consolidations could be seen above 0.9745 temporary low but after all, another fall is still in favor with 0.9862 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 0.9666 has completed at 0.9972 already and 0.9666 is not the bottom yet. Below 0.9745 will target 0.9666 and break will resume recent down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. However, above 0.9862 will mix up the near term outlook again.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD

Some consolidations could be seen above 0.9745 temporary low but after all, another fall is still in favor with 0.9862 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 0.9666 has completed at 0.9972 already and 0.9666 is not the bottom yet. Below 0.9745 will target 0.9666 and break will resume recent down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. However, above 0.9862 will mix up the near term outlook again.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP




No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. At this moment, with 4 hours MACD staying negative, we'd continue to favor deeper fall. Break of 0.8533 support will indicate that whole rise from 0.8284 has likely finished after hitting medium term trend line resistance. In such case, EUR/GBP should target 0.8284/8354 support zone. On the upside, note again that sustained trading above medium term fall trend line and 0.8760 will have medium term bullish implication and should bring further rise towards 0.8940 resistance.

In the bigger picture, firstly, fall from 0.9799 is treated as correction to the larger up trend and the question is whether such correction is finished. At this point, EUR/GBP is still limited by medium term falling trend line and thus, there is no confirmation of completion of the correction yet. Another low below 0.8067 could still be seen. Even in that case, we'd continue to look for reversal signal inside 0.7693/8186 support zone. Meanwhile, break of 0.8940 will revive the case that correction from 0.9799 is already completed and will turn outlook bullish for a new high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP




No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. At this moment, with 4 hours MACD staying negative, we'd continue to favor deeper fall. Break of 0.8533 support will indicate that whole rise from 0.8284 has likely finished after hitting medium term trend line resistance. In such case, EUR/GBP should target 0.8284/8354 support zone. On the upside, note again that sustained trading above medium term fall trend line and 0.8760 will have medium term bullish implication and should bring further rise towards 0.8940 resistance.

In the bigger picture, firstly, fall from 0.9799 is treated as correction to the larger up trend and the question is whether such correction is finished. At this point, EUR/GBP is still limited by medium term falling trend line and thus, there is no confirmation of completion of the correction yet. Another low below 0.8067 could still be seen. Even in that case, we'd continue to look for reversal signal inside 0.7693/8186 support zone. Meanwhile, break of 0.8940 will revive the case that correction from 0.9799 is already completed and will turn outlook bullish for a new high above 0.9799.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF






Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen below 1.2886 temporary top first. Though, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.2676 minor support holds. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is possibly the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401. Above 1.2886 will bring another rise to 1.3038 or possibly further to 1.3203 resistance. Though, below 1.2676 will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF






Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen below 1.2886 temporary top first. Though, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.2676 minor support holds. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is possibly the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2401. Above 1.2886 will bring another rise to 1.3038 or possibly further to 1.3203 resistance. Though, below 1.2676 will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and retreat from 1.6400 could extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6214) and below. But we'd stay bullish as long as 1.5976 support holds and expect rise from 1.5343 to resume later. Break of 1.6400 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and retreat from 1.6400 could extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6214) and below. But we'd stay bullish as long as 1.5976 support holds and expect rise from 1.5343 to resume later. Break of 1.6400 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF


USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8921 continues today and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside up the consolidation is still expected to be limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8977 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF


USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8921 continues today and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside up the consolidation is still expected to be limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8977 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.