تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY


Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY


Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY




With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 132.96 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Focus will remain on 135.48 resistance level. As long as 135.48 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first. Below 130.44 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 122.40 and below.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY




With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 132.96 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Focus will remain on 135.48 resistance level. As long as 135.48 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first. Below 130.44 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 122.40 and below.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY




Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment as consolidations below 115.53 temporary top continues. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY




Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment as consolidations below 115.53 temporary top continues. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's still bounded in tight range below 1.4247 temporary top. Consolidations could continue further but even in case of deeper retreat, downside downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's still bounded in tight range below 1.4247 temporary top. Consolidations could continue further but even in case of deeper retreat, downside downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

With a break of 130.44 minor support, intraday bias in GBP/JPY is flipped back to the downside for 127.53 first. Break will target a test on 122.40 low. On the upside, though, above 132.96 will bring another rise instead. However, as long as 135.48 resistance holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

With a break of 130.44 minor support, intraday bias in GBP/JPY is flipped back to the downside for 127.53 first. Break will target a test on 122.40 low. On the upside, though, above 132.96 will bring another rise instead. However, as long as 135.48 resistance holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal and thus, we'd favor a downside break of 122.40 after having some sideway consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, call from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY continues to stay above 113.52 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY continues to stay above 113.52 minor support and intraday bias remains neutral. Focus remains on 115.96 resistance. As long as 115.96 holds, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's sharp retreat from 1.6400 could extend further but after all, we'd stay bullish as long as 1.5976 support holds and expect rise from 1.5343 to resume later. Above 1.6265 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.6400 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's sharp retreat from 1.6400 could extend further but after all, we'd stay bullish as long as 1.5976 support holds and expect rise from 1.5343 to resume later. Above 1.6265 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.6400 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.6298 from 1.5343 at 1.6621 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations form 0.8921 continue. With 0.8977 minor support intact, another recovery could still be seen. But upside is expected to be limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8977 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations form 0.8921 continue. With 0.8977 minor support intact, another recovery could still be seen. But upside is expected to be limited by 0.9201 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8977 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8921 will confirm fall resumption and target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.9201 from 0.9368 at 0.8795 next.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Ass noted before, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Ass noted before, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we'd continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won't turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's break of 1.0200 resistance suggests that recent sideway consolidations might be finished and the pair is possibly resuming medium term up trend. Intraday bias is back on the upside and break of 1.0254 will target upper channel resistance at 1.0382 next. On the downside, below 1.0112 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9704 support holds and expect up trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking at the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's break of 1.0200 resistance suggests that recent sideway consolidations might be finished and the pair is possibly resuming medium term up trend. Intraday bias is back on the upside and break of 1.0254 will target upper channel resistance at 1.0382 next. On the downside, below 1.0112 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.9704 support holds and expect up trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we're looking at the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.