تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9745 suggests that whole fall from 0.9972 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9666. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9841 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9745 suggests that whole fall from 0.9972 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9666. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9841 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD dips to 1.4020 earlier today as consolidation from 1.4247 continues. Intraday bias remains neutral and more corrective trading could be seen, with risk of deeper fall. But after all, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD dips to 1.4020 earlier today as consolidation from 1.4247 continues. Intraday bias remains neutral and more corrective trading could be seen, with risk of deeper fall. But after all, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops further to as low 1.5935 today so far and the break of 1.5976 support indicates that confirms that rise from 1.5343 is finished at 1.6400 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and deeper decline should be seen towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.5788). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6020 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 1.6400 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drops further to as low 1.5935 today so far and the break of 1.5976 support indicates that confirms that rise from 1.5343 is finished at 1.6400 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and deeper decline should be seen towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.5788). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6020 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 1.6400 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for further rebound. Rise from 0.8921 should be correcting fall from 0.9774 and is targeting 55 days EMA (now at 0.9362) and above. On the downside, below 0.9089 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for further rebound. Rise from 0.8921 should be correcting fall from 0.9774 and is targeting 55 days EMA (now at 0.9362) and above. On the downside, below 0.9089 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises further to new record high of 1.3135 today and remains firm. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should extend further to upper channel resistance at 1.0386 next. On the downside below 1.0185 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 0.9704 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises further to new record high of 1.3135 today and remains firm. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should extend further to upper channel resistance at 1.0386 next. On the downside below 1.0185 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 0.9704 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Above 81.95 will bring another rise to extend rebound from 76.40. However, the broader outlook remains unchanged. With 84.49 key resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal and hence, we'd still mildly favor an eventual downside break out. Below 80.50 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and target 78.25 and below.

In the bigger picture, multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY should still be in progress and in any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8R projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Above 81.95 will bring another rise to extend rebound from 76.40. However, the broader outlook remains unchanged. With 84.49 key resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal and hence, we'd still mildly favor an eventual downside break out. Below 80.50 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and target 78.25 and below.

In the bigger picture, multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY should still be in progress and in any case, we'll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8R projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

As discussed before, rebound from 122.40 might have made a top at 132.96 and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 127.53 support first. Break there will target a retest on 122.40 low. On the upside, above 132.96 will flip bias back to the upside for another rise. But overall, we'll stay bearish as long as 135.48 resistance holds and expect a break of 122.40 eventually.
In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

As discussed before, rebound from 122.40 might have made a top at 132.96 and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 127.53 support first. Break there will target a retest on 122.40 low. On the upside, above 132.96 will flip bias back to the upside for another rise. But overall, we'll stay bearish as long as 135.48 resistance holds and expect a break of 122.40 eventually.
In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. However, break of 135.48 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal or we'll stay bearish. Meanwhile, Decisive break of 118.81 will in turn confirm long term down trend resumption for 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY remains bounded in tight range below 115.53 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, with 115.96 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY remains bounded in tight range below 115.53 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, with 115.96 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to favor a downside break out eventually from range of 105.42/115.96. Below 113.52 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 106.57 support first. Nevertheless, sustained break of 115.96 will also have 55 week's EMA taken out and thus, favors that case that EUR/JPY has bottomed out already.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 105.42 are treated as medium term consolidations to fall from 139.21 and should have completed at 115.96. Decisive break of 105.42 will confirm resumption of down trend from 139.21 and should send EUR/JPY through 100 psychological level to 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 115.96 at 95.07 next. On the upside, break of 115.96 and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA will argue that whole down trend from 169.69 is over. In such case, focus will be turned to 139.21 resistance for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's rally extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.2736 minor support intact. As discussed before, consolidations from 1.2401 is still in progress with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Current rebound should extend to 1.3038 resistance and then 1.3203. On the downside, though, below 1.2376 minor support will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's rally extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.2736 minor support intact. As discussed before, consolidations from 1.2401 is still in progress with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Current rebound should extend to 1.3038 resistance and then 1.3203. On the downside, though, below 1.2376 minor support will indicate that rebound from 1.2432 has completed and should flip bias back to the downside for 1.2401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP retreats mildly as the week starts and a temporary top is possibly in place at 0.8810 with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. Some consolidations might be seen below 0.8810 first. But downside is expected to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring another rise. ABove 0.8810 should target 0.8940 resistance first. Also, note that sustained break of 0.8653 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP retreats mildly as the week starts and a temporary top is possibly in place at 0.8810 with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line. Some consolidations might be seen below 0.8810 first. But downside is expected to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring another rise. ABove 0.8810 should target 0.8940 resistance first. Also, note that sustained break of 0.8653 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.