تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.5935 continue with another recovery today. More corrective trading could be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 1.6140 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Prior break of 1.5976 support suggests that rise from 1.5343 has completed at 1.6400 already. Below 1.5935 will target a test on medium term trend line support (now at 1.5806). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6140 will turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.5935 continue with another recovery today. More corrective trading could be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 1.6140 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Prior break of 1.5976 support suggests that rise from 1.5343 has completed at 1.6400 already. Below 1.5935 will target a test on medium term trend line support (now at 1.5806). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, above 1.6140 will turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

With 0.9139 minor support intact, USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8921 could still continue to correct fall from 0.9774. Such rebound might target 55 days EMA (now at 0.9345) and above. On the downside, below 0.9139 minor support will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

With 0.9139 minor support intact, USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8921 could still continue to correct fall from 0.9774. Such rebound might target 55 days EMA (now at 0.9345) and above. On the downside, below 0.9139 minor support will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dips further to as low as 0.9685 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9666 support. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dips further to as low as 0.9685 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9666 support. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rally extends further to as high as 83.18 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. On the downside, below 82.36 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rally extends further to as high as 83.18 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. On the downside, below 82.36 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD recovers further to as high as 1.4188 so far today but is still limited below 1.4247 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidative trading could still be seen. Below 1.4020 will bring another fall. But outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD recovers further to as high as 1.4188 so far today but is still limited below 1.4247 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidative trading could still be seen. Below 1.4020 will bring another fall. But outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD recovers further to as high as 1.6149 so far today and the break of 1.6140 minor resistance dampens the immediate bearish view. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for further rebound. But after all, break of 1.6400 high is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain neutral and we'd expect more consolidative trading. On the downside below 1.5935 will bring deeper fall towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.5810).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD recovers further to as high as 1.6149 so far today and the break of 1.6140 minor resistance dampens the immediate bearish view. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for further rebound. But after all, break of 1.6400 high is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain neutral and we'd expect more consolidative trading. On the downside below 1.5935 will bring deeper fall towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.5810).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dips sharply today but is still supported above 0.9139 minor support. Recovery from 0.8921 could still extend higher to 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above. Nevertheless, break of 0.9139 will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF dips sharply today but is still supported above 0.9139 minor support. Recovery from 0.8921 could still extend higher to 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above. Nevertheless, break of 0.9139 will indicate that recovery from 0.8921 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

With 1.0203 support intact, further rise is still expected in AUD/USD, towards upper channel resistance at 1.0392 next. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed, possibly with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

With 1.0203 support intact, further rise is still expected in AUD/USD, towards upper channel resistance at 1.0392 next. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed, possibly with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 83.20 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidation might be seen first but break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 83.20 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidation might be seen first but break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.