تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Break of 132.96 resistance suggests that rebound from 122.40 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 130.17 will turn bias back to the downside for a test on 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead.

[m.youssif]

Break of 132.96 resistance suggests that rebound from 122.40 has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 130.17 will turn bias back to the downside for a test on 122.40 low instead.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 116.18 minor support intact. Current rise should now extend to 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 first. Break will affirm the bullish reversal case and target 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 will further affirm this case and target 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69).

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 116.18 minor support intact. Current rise should now extend to 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 first. Break will affirm the bullish reversal case and target 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 will further affirm this case and target 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69).

[m.youssif]

With 0.8653 support intact, EUR/GBP's rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8835 will target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8653 support intact, EUR/GBP's rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8835 will target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continues to lose some upside momentum but after all, with 1.2887 minor support intact, rebound from 1.2432 is expected to continue higher through 1.3038 resistance. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and break of 1.3038 should target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2887 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF continues to lose some upside momentum but after all, with 1.2887 minor support intact, rebound from 1.2432 is expected to continue higher through 1.3038 resistance. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and break of 1.3038 should target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2887 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD jumps to as high as 1.4231 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.4247 resistance and thus, intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD jumps to as high as 1.4231 so far today but upside is still limited below 1.4247 resistance and thus, intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's sharp reversal after hitting 1.6140 minor resistance revives the original bearish view that fall from 1.6400 is not over. Break of 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5811). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's sharp reversal after hitting 1.6140 minor resistance revives the original bearish view that fall from 1.6400 is not over. Break of 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5811). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9139 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 could have finished. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 0.8921 first. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9139 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 could have finished. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 0.8921 first. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9337) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 83.20 temporary top. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 83.20 temporary top. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD faces some resistance ahead of 1.4247 and retreats and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD faces some resistance ahead of 1.4247 and retreats and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.