تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8921 might have finished at 0.9273 already and another fall is mildly in favor to retest 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8921 might have finished at 0.9273 already and another fall is mildly in favor to retest 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm medium term down trend resumption. On the upside, above 0.9273 will bring another recovery towards 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD loses some upside momentum as seen in mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But with 1.0203 minor support intact, stronger rise is still in favor towards upper channel resistance at 1.0396. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD loses some upside momentum as seen in mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But with 1.0203 minor support intact, stronger rise is still in favor towards upper channel resistance at 1.0396. On the downside, below 1.0203 support will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition remains in weekly MACD, reversal could be imminent. We'd continue to look for topping signal and a break of 0.9704 support will indicate that a medium term top is already in place and would likely bring deep medium term pull back into 0.8066/9404 support zone. However, re-acceleration in the current rise will dampen this view and would possibly bring even stronger rise though 1.1 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9752 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen to 0.9666 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9752 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 0.9826 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9666 was strong, it's still too early to conclude medium term reversal. Whole down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) could still extend further lower as long as 1.0851 resistance holds. But even in that case, as fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's rally resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 83.73 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 84.49 key resistance next. Break will target next medium term support turned resistance at 84.81. On the downside, below 82.56 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's rally resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 83.73 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 84.49 key resistance next. Break will target next medium term support turned resistance at 84.81. On the downside, below 82.56 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's rise extends further to as high as 134.29 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 132.45 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will now remain cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's rise extends further to as high as 134.29 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 135.48 key resistance next. Break there will have medium term bullish implications and should bring stronger rally. On the downside, below 132.45 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will now remain cautiously bullish as long as 130.17 support holds.

In the bigger picture, note that GBP/JPY is still limited below 55 weeks EMA and thus, fall from 163.05 is possibly still in progress. As discussed before, such decline is treated as the second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 118.81 (2009 low). Hence, while deeper decline would be seen, strong support is expected around 118.81 low to conclude such decline and bring another medium term rise to extend the consolidation from 118.81. On the upside, break of 135.48 will in turn indicate that fall from 163.05 is completed and medium term outlook will be turned bullish for 163.05 resistance instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rises further to as high as 118.65 so far today and met mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, below 116.72 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. The break of 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case and further rise should be seen towards 39.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69).

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rises further to as high as 118.65 so far today and met mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 119.07 next. On the downside, below 116.72 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 113.54 support is now needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. The break of 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case and further rise should be seen towards 39.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69).

[m.youssif]

While upside momentum in EUR/GBP is a bit unconvincing, there is no sign of topping yet and further rise is still expected towards 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral again. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

While upside momentum in EUR/GBP is a bit unconvincing, there is no sign of topping yet and further rise is still expected towards 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral again. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to confirm that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's rally extends further to as high as 1.3056 and breaks mentioned 1.3038 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and should now target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2931 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's rally extends further to as high as 1.3056 and breaks mentioned 1.3038 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. As noted before, rise from 1.2432 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation from 1.2401 and should now target 1.3203 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2931 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain mildly bullish.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

USD/JPY's rally extends further in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. Break will indicate medium term reversal and should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. On the downside, below 83.19 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 80.50 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

USD/JPY's rally extends further in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 84.49 key resistance. Break will indicate medium term reversal and should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. On the downside, below 83.19 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 80.50 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and the multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY could still be in progress for a new low below 76.40. However, note that decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.22). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 1.4247 would extend further. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 1.4247 would extend further. On the upside, break of 1.4247 will confirm up trend resumption for 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4273). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4020 will bring another fall to extend the correction from 1.4247. Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3751 support holds and further rally is still expected.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, break of 1.3472 will leave the whole rise from 1.2873 in three wave corrective structure, which in turn indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not finished and will turn favors back to the bearish case for at least a test on 1.2873 support.