تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is neutral for the moment and some sideway trading could be seen between 1.5935/6149. We're mildly favoring the case that fall from 1.6400 is not over yet and below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5820). Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise form 1.4230 has finished too and will turn outlook bearish for 1.5343 support. On the upside, however, above 1.6149 will dampen this immediate bearish case again and turn focus back to 1.6400 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9273 resistant indicates that rebound from 0.8921 has resumed and intraday bias is back to the upside for 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above. On the downside, below 0.9126 support will suggest that rebound from 0.8921 has completed and will flip bias back to the downside for 0.8921 low and below.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9273 resistant indicates that rebound from 0.8921 has resumed and intraday bias is back to the upside for 55 days EMA (now at 0.9331) and above. On the downside, below 0.9126 support will suggest that rebound from 0.8921 has completed and will flip bias back to the downside for 0.8921 low and below.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD was bounded in sideway consolidation between 1.4020 and 1.4247 last week. Late rally on Friday argues that recent up trend is possibly ready to resume this week. Break of 1.4247 will confirm and target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate that deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD was bounded in sideway consolidation between 1.4020 and 1.4247 last week. Late rally on Friday argues that recent up trend is possibly ready to resume this week. Break of 1.4247 will confirm and target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate that deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD was bounded in sideway trading above 1.5935 last week. Current development suggests that consolidation from 1.5935 is still in progress and would likely extend further. Above 1.6149 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and possibly above. However, in such case, we'd expect strong resistance near term 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5821).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD was bounded in sideway trading above 1.5935 last week. Current development suggests that consolidation from 1.5935 is still in progress and would likely extend further. Above 1.6149 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and possibly above. However, in such case, we'd expect strong resistance near term 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5821).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's choppy recovery from 0.8921 extended further to as high as 0.9339 last week and touched 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out as long as 0.9126 minor support stronger resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9573) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's choppy recovery from 0.8921 extended further to as high as 0.9339 last week and touched 55 days EMA as expected. Further rise cannot be ruled out as long as 0.9126 minor support stronger resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9573) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD extended recent up trend and reached new record high of 1.0394 last week. AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Nevertheless, there is no confirmation of topping as long as 1.0203 support holds. Further rise could be seen to 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422 next. On the downside, though ,below 1.0203 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.0079).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. and current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD extended recent up trend and reached new record high of 1.0394 last week. AUD/USD is losing some upside momentum with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Nevertheless, there is no confirmation of topping as long as 1.0203 support holds. Further rise could be seen to 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422 next. On the downside, though ,below 1.0203 support will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.0079).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. and current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 0.9625 last week and the strong break of 0.9666 support confirms medium term downtrend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9685 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD dropped to as low as 0.9625 last week and the strong break of 0.9666 support confirms medium term downtrend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589. On the upside, above 0.9685 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose further to as high as 84.71 last week and the break of 84.49 key resistance suggests that a medium term bottom is at least in place at 76.40. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the bullish case and target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet). We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose further to as high as 84.71 last week and the break of 84.49 key resistance suggests that a medium term bottom is at least in place at 76.40. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the bullish case and target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet). We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF jumped to as high as 1.3169 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1.3023 resistance first. Note that rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and would target 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3445). On the downside, below 1.3037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, another rise would remain mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF jumped to as high as 1.3169 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1.3023 resistance first. Note that rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and would target 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3445). On the downside, below 1.3037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, another rise would remain mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP continued to climb to as high as 0.8852 last week. Upside momentum was a bit unconvincing. But still, initial bias remains on the upside this week with 0.8752 minor support intact. Current rise should target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP continued to climb to as high as 0.8852 last week. Upside momentum was a bit unconvincing. But still, initial bias remains on the upside this week with 0.8752 minor support intact. Current rise should target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.