تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose sharply to as high as 119.78 last week and the strong break of 115.96 resistance indicate that the medium term trend has revised. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 118.21 minor support suggest that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral to bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third wave might be finished at 105.42 already. Sustained break of 139.21 resistance should pave the way to retest 169.96 high next.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose sharply to as high as 119.78 last week and the strong break of 115.96 resistance indicate that the medium term trend has revised. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 118.21 minor support suggest that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral to bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third wave might be finished at 105.42 already. Sustained break of 139.21 resistance should pave the way to retest 169.96 high next.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 135.80 last week and the break of 135.48 resistance suggests that 122.40 is the medium term bottom that we've been waiting for. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 133.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 135.80 last week and the break of 135.48 resistance suggests that 122.40 is the medium term bottom that we've been waiting for. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 133.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rise is expected to 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate a short term top is formed and deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rise is expected to 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate a short term top is formed and deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD recovers further to as high as 1.6175 so far. Consolidation from 1.5935 is still in progress and could extend further towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5837).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD recovers further to as high as 1.6175 so far. Consolidation from 1.5935 is still in progress and could extend further towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5837).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.9126 minor support intact, the choppy recovery from 0.8921 could extend further higher. But strong resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9575) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.9126 minor support intact, the choppy recovery from 0.8921 could extend further higher. But strong resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9575) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 83.42 minor support intact. Current rise from 76.40 is expected to extend towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 83.42 minor support intact. Current rise from 76.40 is expected to extend towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD edges higher to 1.0415 today and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Though, upside momentum is a bit unconvincing with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422 and a break of 1.0312 minor support will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring deeper pull back, towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.0079). Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. and current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD edges higher to 1.0415 today and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Though, upside momentum is a bit unconvincing with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422 and a break of 1.0312 minor support will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring deeper pull back, towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.0079). Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extended further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. and current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USDCAD's drops further to as low as 0.9615 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current down trend is expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589 next. On the upside, above 0.9673 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USDCAD's drops further to as low as 0.9615 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current down trend is expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589 next. On the upside, above 0.9673 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the momentum and current rise should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 134.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the momentum and current rise should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 134.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 118.21 minor support intact and current rally should now target 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 118.21 minor support suggest that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral to bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 118.21 minor support intact and current rally should now target 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 118.21 minor support suggest that a temporary top is formed and turn bias neutral to bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.