تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, further rise remains in favor with 0.8752 minor support intact. Current rise should target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, further rise remains in favor with 0.8752 minor support intact. Current rise should target 0.8940 resistance first. On the downside, below 0.8752 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations. Further break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside with 1.3037 minor support intact and further rise should be seen to 1.3023 resistance first. Note that rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and would target 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3445). On the downside, below 1.3037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, another rise would remain mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside with 1.3037 minor support intact and further rise should be seen to 1.3023 resistance first. Note that rise from 1.2432 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2401 and would target 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 or even further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3445). On the downside, below 1.3037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.2736 support is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, another rise would remain mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD lost momentum after edging higher to 1.4267 and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral again. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.4020 support holds. Above 1.4267 will target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate a short term top is formed and deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD lost momentum after edging higher to 1.4267 and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral again. Nevertheless, another rise remains in favor as long as 1.4020 support holds. Above 1.4267 will target 1.4281 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. On the downside, below 1.4020 will indicate a short term top is formed and deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.3427/3860 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high. However, note that failure to sustain above the medium term falling trend line, followed by break of 1.3472 support will in turn argue that correction from 1.6039 is not finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's recovery from 1.5935 could still extend further higher towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5841).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's recovery from 1.5935 could still extend further higher towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to continue to consolidation pattern from 1.6400. On the downside, below 1.5935 will target medium term trend line support (now at 1.5841).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

With 0.9126 minor support intact, the choppy recovery from 0.8921 could extend further higher. But strong resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9571) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

With 0.9126 minor support intact, the choppy recovery from 0.8921 could extend further higher. But strong resistance should be seen at near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9571) to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside,below 0.9126 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Current development in AUD/USD suggests that a short term top is possibly in place at 1.0415, ahead of 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422, on mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0269) and possibly lower to 38.2% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0415 at 1.0143. But there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. And current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Current development in AUD/USD suggests that a short term top is possibly in place at 1.0415, ahead of 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422, on mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0269) and possibly lower to 38.2% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0415 at 1.0143. But there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. And current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9673 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 0.9615 and turns intraday bias neutral. Some recovery might be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9717. But upside is expected to be limited well below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9615 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's break of 0.9673 minor resistance suggests that a temporary low is in place at 0.9615 and turns intraday bias neutral. Some recovery might be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9717. But upside is expected to be limited well below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.9615 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[seragsamy]

كل التوفيق لك اخى محمد يوسف مجهود متواصل ورائع

[seragsamy]

كل التوفيق لك اخى محمد يوسف مجهود متواصل ورائع

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 135.17 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is in place and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 133.58). But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 first. Break will target 100% projection at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. On the downside, below 135.17 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is in place and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 133.58). But downside should be contained well above 130.17 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY lost some upside momentum but still intraday bias remains mildly on the upside with 119.14 minor support intact. Current rise from 106.57 should extend further towards 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 119.14 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is formed and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.17). But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY lost some upside momentum but still intraday bias remains mildly on the upside with 119.14 minor support intact. Current rise from 106.57 should extend further towards 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50 next. On the downside, below 119.14 minor support will suggest that a temporary top is formed and bring retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.17). But downside should be contained above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA is taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.