تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY is staying in tight range today but still, another rise is expected with 83.85 minor support intact. Current rally should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY is staying in tight range today but still, another rise is expected with 83.85 minor support intact. Current rally should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY retreats mildly after hitting 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50. But with 120.86 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise is still in favor. Sustained trading above 122.50 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.86 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 118.85) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY retreats mildly after hitting 100% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 122.50. But with 120.86 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise is still in favor. Sustained trading above 122.50 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.86 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 118.85) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday but had a bullish run earlier today in Asian session on broad US Dollar weakness and hit 1.6391. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6400 resistance, which is the upper line of the current range area. A clear break above that area would trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6450 – 1.6500 in nearest term and a weekly close above 1.6400 would lead us to a bullish continuation outlook testing 1.6800 – 1.7000 in longer term. Immediate support at 1.6340/30. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6250 support area and keep us in sideways condition. Broad US Dollar weakness should support the Cable and I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday but had a bullish run earlier today in Asian session on broad US Dollar weakness and hit 1.6391. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6400 resistance, which is the upper line of the current range area. A clear break above that area would trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6450 – 1.6500 in nearest term and a weekly close above 1.6400 would lead us to a bullish continuation outlook testing 1.6800 – 1.7000 in longer term. Immediate support at 1.6340/30. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.6250 support area and keep us in sideways condition. Broad US Dollar weakness should support the Cable and I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF finally break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below indicates the end of the bullish correction and seems ready to continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.9000 is nearest term before testing 0.8900 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9164 (current high). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 0.9230 but would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF finally break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below indicates the end of the bullish correction and seems ready to continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.9000 is nearest term before testing 0.8900 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9164 (current high). A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 0.9230 but would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 84.70 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 84.70 – 85.51 indicates consolidation after bullish run. The major bullish outlook remains strong. Yesterday’s bearish consolidation is absolutely normal and I believe an upside breakout from the range area is imminent to continue the upside scenario at least targeting 85.90 – 86.30/50 area. On the downside, only a clear break below 84.71 would pause the current strong bullish outlook testing 84.15 but overall the major bullish outlook should remain strong and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 84.70 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 84.70 – 85.51 indicates consolidation after bullish run. The major bullish outlook remains strong. Yesterday’s bearish consolidation is absolutely normal and I believe an upside breakout from the range area is imminent to continue the upside scenario at least targeting 85.90 – 86.30/50 area. On the downside, only a clear break below 84.71 would pause the current strong bullish outlook testing 84.15 but overall the major bullish outlook should remain strong and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday bottomed at 120.74 but had a bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session slipped above 122.59. The bias is bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 122.59 to continue the bullish scenario testing 125.44 and 127.90. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 120.75 – 122.59 indicates consolidation after bullish run. I think the upside breakout is imminent. Immediate support at 122.00. A clear break below that area could lead us to another bearish consolidation retesting 120.75 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday bottomed at 120.74 but had a bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session slipped above 122.59. The bias is bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 122.59 to continue the bullish scenario testing 125.44 and 127.90. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 120.75 – 122.59 indicates consolidation after bullish run. I think the upside breakout is imminent. Immediate support at 122.00. A clear break below that area could lead us to another bearish consolidation retesting 120.75 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 138.10 but bounced to the upside and hit 139.63 earlier today in Asian session. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 139.67 – 138.10 indicates consolidation after bullish run. I believe upside breakout is imminent testing 142.00 and 145.95. Immediate support at 139.00. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 138.10 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 138.10 but bounced to the upside and hit 139.63 earlier today in Asian session. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 139.67 – 138.10 indicates consolidation after bullish run. I believe upside breakout is imminent testing 142.00 and 145.95. Immediate support at 139.00. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 138.10 but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, made another new all time high at 1.0537. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing new all time high projection around 1.0600 – 1.0650. Immediate support at 1.0480. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0445 but overall the bullish outlook remains strong and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, made another new all time high at 1.0537. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing new all time high projection around 1.0600 – 1.0650. Immediate support at 1.0480. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0445 but overall the bullish outlook remains strong and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday, but found a good support at the upper line of the previous range area around 1.4250 as you can see on my h4 chart below and continue its bullish run earlier today in Asian session hit 1.4403. This fact gives us further validation to the bullish continuation scenario at least targeting 1.4450 – 1.4500. Immediate support at 1.4350. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only another consistent move below 1.4250 would halt the current strong bullish technical outlook.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday, but found a good support at the upper line of the previous range area around 1.4250 as you can see on my h4 chart below and continue its bullish run earlier today in Asian session hit 1.4403. This fact gives us further validation to the bullish continuation scenario at least targeting 1.4450 – 1.4500. Immediate support at 1.4350. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only another consistent move below 1.4250 would halt the current strong bullish technical outlook.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally resumes by taking out 1.4348 after brief retreat. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. Break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4240 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for deeper retreat towards 1.4020 support.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD's rally resumes by taking out 1.4348 after brief retreat. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414. Break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4240 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for deeper retreat towards 1.4020 support.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.