تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rise from 1.5939 resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.6400 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's rise from 1.5939 resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.6400 resistance will confirm that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that choppy recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that choppy recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises further to as high as 1.0532 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866. On the downside, below 1.0287 support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back. But before that, we'll stay bullish as long as 1.0287 support holds even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. Break of the upper channel resistance also points to acceleration. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD rises further to as high as 1.0532 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866. On the downside, below 1.0287 support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back. But before that, we'll stay bullish as long as 1.0287 support holds even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend might be regaining momentum again. Break of the upper channel resistance also points to acceleration. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside as recent decline resumes. Current fall should now target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9623 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation, possibly with recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9662) before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside as recent decline resumes. Current fall should now target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, above 0.9623 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation, possibly with recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9662) before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. As noted before, such decline is still looking corrective and thus, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. We'd continue to look for sign of loss of momentum and reversal in the current decline. However, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Further rise is still expected with 83.85 minor support intact and USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Further rise is still expected with 83.85 minor support intact and USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's still struggling in range below 1.3234. On the upside, above 1.3234 will bring another rise to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434) to extend the consolidation from 1.2401. On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's still struggling in range below 1.3234. On the upside, above 1.3234 will bring another rise to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434) to extend the consolidation from 1.2401. On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8852 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. But after all, near term outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's consolidation from 0.8852 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. But after all, near term outlook will remain bullish with 0.8653 support intact. Above 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first. However, break of 0.8653 will indicate that EUR/GBP has topped out in near term and will bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line resistance revives the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rally resumed after brief retreat and reaches as high as 122.94 so far. Intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 120.74 minor support holds. Further rise should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.52) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY's rally resumed after brief retreat and reaches as high as 122.94 so far. Intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 120.74 minor support holds. Further rise should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 106.57 to 115.53 from 113.54 at 128.03 next. On the downside, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top might be in place and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.52) and below. But downside should be contained well above 115.53 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 115.96 resistance, as well as the 55 weeks EMA are taken as the first signal that medium term correction from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Sustained trading above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.33 affirms this case. Focus now turns to 139.21 key resistance level for confirmation (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69). On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's rally resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.87 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY's rally resumes after brief consolidations and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.87 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6426 so far today and the break of 1.6400 resistance confirms that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook


GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6426 so far today and the break of 1.6400 resistance confirms that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5343 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.