تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

With 83.85 minor support intact, current rise in USD/JPY is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

With 83.85 minor support intact, current rise in USD/JPY is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and deeper correction. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.62) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low. Break there will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a retest on 0.8921 low. Break there will confirm fall resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD jumps further to as high as 1.4442 in early US session. The break of 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414 now paves the way to 161.8% projection at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4348 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/USD jumps further to as high as 1.4442 in early US session. The break of 100% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.4414 now paves the way to 161.8% projection at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4348 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into and impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD extended recent up trend and rose further to as high as 1.4486 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD extended recent up trend and rose further to as high as 1.4486 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6400 resistance last week indicates that whole rise from 1.5343 and that from 1.4230 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5935 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD's break of 1.6400 resistance last week indicates that whole rise from 1.5343 and that from 1.4230 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.5935 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's decline last week and break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for a test on 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's decline last week and break of 0.9126 minor support suggests that recovery from 0.8921 has completed at 0.9339 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for a test on 0.8921 low first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946 is already met. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will pave the way towards 100% projection at 0.6266.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's up trend continued last week and made new record high 1.0581. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should now be seen to 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD's up trend continued last week and made new record high 1.0581. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should now be seen to 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's down trend was still in progress and dropped to as low as 0.9525 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD's down trend was still in progress and dropped to as low as 0.9525 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose to as high as 85.51 last week but lost momentum and turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some consolidations below 85.51 temporary top first. But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY rose to as high as 85.51 last week but lost momentum and turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some consolidations below 85.51 temporary top first. But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF rose to 1.3234 las week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'll see which side EUR/CHF breaks out. Nonetheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF rose to 1.3234 las week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3203 from 1.2432 at 1.3234 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'll see which side EUR/CHF breaks out. Nonetheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3434). On the downside, below 1.3038 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.