تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP retreated last week but downside was contained well above 0.8653 support as expected. Nevertheless, as upside is still limited below 0.8552 resistance, initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP retreated last week but downside was contained well above 0.8653 support as expected. Nevertheless, as upside is still limited below 0.8552 resistance, initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 123.07 last week. While the cross lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 123.07 last week. While the cross lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for next target of 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 139.99 last week but lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week. While some more rise might be seen initially this week, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 139.99 last week but lost some upside momentum towards the end of the week. While some more rise might be seen initially this week, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

The EURUSD continued its strong bullish momentum this week after made a clear break above 1.4281 key resistance area and closed at 1.4483 on Friday. On my h4 chart below we can see price still moving smoothly inside the bullish channel. The white trend line, is actually the upper line of the bearish channel on weekly chart and already broken to the upside, suggests potential failure of the bearish weekly outlook at least testing December 2008 high at 1.4718 next week. On the downside, bearish correction warning and bullish exhaustion indicated by a CCI divergence which could test 1.4350 support area.

[m.youssif]

The EURUSD continued its strong bullish momentum this week after made a clear break above 1.4281 key resistance area and closed at 1.4483 on Friday. On my h4 chart below we can see price still moving smoothly inside the bullish channel. The white trend line, is actually the upper line of the bearish channel on weekly chart and already broken to the upside, suggests potential failure of the bearish weekly outlook at least testing December 2008 high at 1.4718 next week. On the downside, bearish correction warning and bullish exhaustion indicated by a CCI divergence which could test 1.4350 support area.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD made a temporary top at 1.6426 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD made a temporary top at 1.6426 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 0.8921 should have finished at 0.9339 already and further fall should be seen to retest 0.8921 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 0.8921 should have finished at 0.9339 already and further fall should be seen to retest 0.8921 first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9203 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside with 1.0506 minor support intact. Current rise 0.9704 should be targeting 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside with 1.0506 minor support intact. Current rise 0.9704 should be targeting 161.8% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0866 next. On the downside, below 1.0506 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained by 1.0287/0415 support zone and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside with 0.9623 minor resistance intact and further rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353. On the upside, break of 0.9623 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is possibly in place and should bring recovery to 0.9666 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 85.51 temporary top, possibly with retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at ). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 85.51 temporary top, possibly with retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at ). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.