تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

As noted before, while some rise might be seen in GBP/JPY, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

As noted before, while some rise might be seen in GBP/JPY, resistance should be seen near term 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 136.69 at 140.73 and bring consolidations. Below 137.87 minor support will indicate that a short term top is possibly formed and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 136.38) and below. Nevertheless, even in that case, downside should be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Sustained break of 140.37 will target 161.8% projection at 147.25 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

While EUR/JPY is losing some upside momentum, further rise will remain in favor with 120.74 minor support intact. Current rally from 106.57 should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

While EUR/JPY is losing some upside momentum, further rise will remain in favor with 120.74 minor support intact. Current rally from 106.57 should target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, though, below 120.74 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 119.74) and below. But downside should be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. There is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3423). On the downside, below 1.3053 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. There is no change in the view that price actions from 1.2401 are in form of a consolidation pattern with rise from 1.2432 as the third leg. Above 1.3234 will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3423). On the downside, below 1.3053 will flip bias to the downside for 1.2736 support. Break there will argue that consolidation from 1.2401 has possibly finished and will bring retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8852 resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out but even in that case, we'd expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

With 0.8852 resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out but even in that case, we'd expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum on Friday after break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9000 – 0.8900 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9130. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 0.9200/30 resistance area but would change my medium outlook back to neutral bias.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum on Friday after break below the bullish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9000 – 0.8900 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9130. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 0.9200/30 resistance area but would change my medium outlook back to neutral bias.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.4383 minor support intact. Current rise is expected to target 161.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.4020/4247 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen below 1.6426 temporary top. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen below 1.6426 temporary top. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a test on 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9160 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for a test on 0.8921 support. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9160 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9774 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 85.51 temporary top is still in progress and deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 84.13). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's consolidation from 85.51 temporary top is still in progress and deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 84.13). But downside should be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 85.51 will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday and fell below 1.4400 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4350 but note that overall price is still in a major strong bullish outlook since the break above 1.4035 and I think the current short term bearish bias is only a normal correction. A clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish consolidation testing 1.4300 – 1.4250. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.4450 to end this bearish correction phase and continue the bullish scenario at least retesting 1.4500 – 1.4550.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday and fell below 1.4400 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4350 but note that overall price is still in a major strong bullish outlook since the break above 1.4035 and I think the current short term bearish bias is only a normal correction. A clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish consolidation testing 1.4300 – 1.4250. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.4450 to end this bearish correction phase and continue the bullish scenario at least retesting 1.4500 – 1.4550.