تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 123.31 short term top. Deeper retreat might be seen but downside is expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 123.31 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen below 123.31 short term top. Deeper retreat might be seen but downside is expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 123.31 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4518 but corrected lower earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.4453. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Although my daily and weekly outlook is bullish, the CCI bearish divergence seen on h4 chart below still suggests potential bullish exhaustion and downside correction while the upside momentum seems limited. Do not rush jump into the market and let’s keep our stop losses very tight. Immediate support at 1.4400 followed by 1.4350. A clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.4250 which is the upper line of the previous range. On the upside, a clear break above 1.4518 would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.4550 – 1.4600 area.

[m.youssif]

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4518 but corrected lower earlier today in Asian session and hit 1.4453. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Although my daily and weekly outlook is bullish, the CCI bearish divergence seen on h4 chart below still suggests potential bullish exhaustion and downside correction while the upside momentum seems limited. Do not rush jump into the market and let’s keep our stop losses very tight. Immediate support at 1.4400 followed by 1.4350. A clear break below 1.4350 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.4250 which is the upper line of the previous range. On the upside, a clear break above 1.4518 would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.4550 – 1.4600 area.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.6226 and closed at 1.6258. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear break below 1.6220 testing 1.6090. The false breakout above the range gives us more bearish intraday bias but note that overall outlook remains sideways as price still trapped inside the range area as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.6300. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but could open the door for another retest of 1.6400 resistance area. CCI in negative area indicates potential downside pressure.

[m.youssif]

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.6226 and closed at 1.6258. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another clear break below 1.6220 testing 1.6090. The false breakout above the range gives us more bearish intraday bias but note that overall outlook remains sideways as price still trapped inside the range area as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.6300. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but could open the door for another retest of 1.6400 resistance area. CCI in negative area indicates potential downside pressure.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.8940 and closed at 0.8970. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 0.8900 – 0.8850. Immediate resistance at 0.9000. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9070 but only a clear break back above 0.9130 could halt the current strong bearish outlook.

[m.youssif]

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.8940 and closed at 0.8970. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 0.8900 – 0.8850. Immediate resistance at 0.9000. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9070 but only a clear break back above 0.9130 could halt the current strong bearish outlook.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 83.45 and closed at 83.75. Price is now in a bearish correction phase. Important support to be watched closely is around 83.45, which form a triple bottom formation as you can see on my h4 chart below. At the same time, we have a CCI bullish divergence suggests potential upside pressure but only a clear break above 84.70 would potentially end the current bearish correction phase retesting 85.90 key resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below the triple bottom formation and 83.45 would continue the current bearish correction testing 82.55/00 key support area.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 83.45 and closed at 83.75. Price is now in a bearish correction phase. Important support to be watched closely is around 83.45, which form a triple bottom formation as you can see on my h4 chart below. At the same time, we have a CCI bullish divergence suggests potential upside pressure but only a clear break above 84.70 would potentially end the current bearish correction phase retesting 85.90 key resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below the triple bottom formation and 83.45 would continue the current bearish correction testing 82.55/00 key support area.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 120.14 but closed higher at 121.28. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains bullish but we have a CCI bearish divergence as you can see on my daily chart below suggests potential bullish exhaustion and bearish pullback. Expected daily range at 122.59 – 119.30. Immediate resistance at 122.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 122.59. A clear break above 122.59 could end the current bearish correction phase but we need a clear break above 123.31 to continue the major bullish scenario. Immediate support at 120.75. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 119.30.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 120.14 but closed higher at 121.28. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains bullish but we have a CCI bearish divergence as you can see on my daily chart below suggests potential bullish exhaustion and bearish pullback. Expected daily range at 122.59 – 119.30. Immediate resistance at 122.00. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 122.59. A clear break above 122.59 could end the current bearish correction phase but we need a clear break above 123.31 to continue the major bullish scenario. Immediate support at 120.75. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish testing 119.30.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish intraday bias yesterday but still unable to break below 135.00 support area. Price is still in a strong bearish correction phase but need a clear break below 135.00 to continue the bearish phase, even could lead us to a bearish reversal scenario at least testing 133.50. Immediate resistance at 137.50, which I think is the best place for a short intraday position with good risk – reward ratio. A clear break above 137.50 would halt the current strong bearish correction phase but we need a clear break above 139.67 to end the bearish correction and continue the major bullish scenario since the intervention.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish intraday bias yesterday but still unable to break below 135.00 support area. Price is still in a strong bearish correction phase but need a clear break below 135.00 to continue the bearish phase, even could lead us to a bearish reversal scenario at least testing 133.50. Immediate resistance at 137.50, which I think is the best place for a short intraday position with good risk – reward ratio. A clear break above 137.50 would halt the current strong bearish correction phase but we need a clear break above 139.67 to end the bearish correction and continue the major bullish scenario since the intervention.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains strongly bullish, but we have a CCI bearish divergence as you can see on my daily chart below suggests potential bullish exhaustion and bearish correction still testing 1.0330, but only a clear break below 1.0200 could be a threat to the current major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.0500. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.0581. Immediate support at 1.0430. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish at testing 1.0388/30 support area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains strongly bullish, but we have a CCI bearish divergence as you can see on my daily chart below suggests potential bullish exhaustion and bearish correction still testing 1.0330, but only a clear break below 1.0200 could be a threat to the current major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.0500. A clear break above that area would change the intraday bias to bullish testing 1.0581. Immediate support at 1.0430. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish at testing 1.0388/30 support area.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Even though EUR/USD is losing some upside momentum, intraday bias will remain on the upside with 1.4377 minor support intact and current rally is still expected to extend further towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. Break of 1.4377 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

Even though EUR/USD is losing some upside momentum, intraday bias will remain on the upside with 1.4377 minor support intact and current rally is still expected to extend further towards 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. Break of 1.4377 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD is still bounded is consolidation pattern from 1.6426 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Even in case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD is still bounded is consolidation pattern from 1.6426 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Even in case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.