تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drew support from 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounds strongly. But upside is limited below 1.6426 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen. Though, even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

GBP/USD drew support from 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounds strongly. But upside is limited below 1.6426 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen. Though, even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's drops to as low as 0.8895 so far today and the break of 0.8921 support indicates that the larger down trend has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited around 4 hours 55 EMA and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CHF's drops to as low as 0.8895 so far today and the break of 0.8921 support indicates that the larger down trend has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited around 4 hours 55 EMA and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD recovers mildly after drawing support but upside is still limited below 1.0581. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1.0581 short term top. Nevertheless, consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 1.0287 support holds and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD recovers mildly after drawing support but upside is still limited below 1.0581. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1.0581 short term top. Nevertheless, consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 1.0287 support holds and we'd expect recent rally to resume sooner rather than later. Above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continues to consolidate above 0.9525 short term bottom and more recovery could be seen to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continues to consolidate above 0.9525 short term bottom and more recovery could be seen to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 is still in progress and deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 is still in progress and deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations from 139.99 short term top would be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside above 139.99 will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations from 139.99 short term top would be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. On the upside above 139.99 will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and consolidations from 123.31 could extend further with another dip. But downside is expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 123.31 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and consolidations from 123.31 could extend further with another dip. But downside is expected to be contained well above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 123.31 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP forms a temporary top at 0.8922 and intraday bias is turned neutral. But after all, with 0.8713 support intact, recent rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8922 will target 0.8940 resistance first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP forms a temporary top at 0.8922 and intraday bias is turned neutral. But after all, with 0.8713 support intact, recent rally is still expected to continue and above 0.8922 will target 0.8940 resistance first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise from 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dips further to 1.2901 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2736. Break there will indicate that consolidations from 1.2401 is likely completed and larger downtrend is possibly resuming. On the upside above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF dips further to 1.2901 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2736. Break there will indicate that consolidations from 1.2401 is likely completed and larger downtrend is possibly resuming. On the upside above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD's break of 1.4377 minor support suggests that a short term top is in place at 1.4519. Consolidations should now be seen with risk of pull back to lower channel support (now at 1.4166). But downside should be contained by 1.4020 4247 support zone and bring another rally. Above 1.4519 will resume recent rise to 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Mid-Day Outlook

EUR/USD's break of 1.4377 minor support suggests that a short term top is in place at 1.4519. Consolidations should now be seen with risk of pull back to lower channel support (now at 1.4166). But downside should be contained by 1.4020 4247 support zone and bring another rally. Above 1.4519 will resume recent rise to 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.