تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. However, I think the intraday bias remains more to the downside as bearish correction phase is not over yet. Although a little bit mess, the descending triangle bearish scenario remains intact, still targeting 82.55/00 key support area. Immediate resistance at 83.50 followed by 83.80. A clear break above 83.80 would change the intraday bias to bullish but we need a clear break above 84.70 to potentially end the current bearish correction phase.

[m.youssif]

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. However, I think the intraday bias remains more to the downside as bearish correction phase is not over yet. Although a little bit mess, the descending triangle bearish scenario remains intact, still targeting 82.55/00 key support area. Immediate resistance at 83.50 followed by 83.80. A clear break above 83.80 would change the intraday bias to bullish but we need a clear break above 84.70 to potentially end the current bearish correction phase.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but closed significantly higher at 121.33 after found a good support around 119.30. This fact keeps us in sideways outlook from h4 chart point of view, indicates consolidation phase but still within a context of major bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 120.20. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 119.30. Immediate resistance remains around 121.20/40. A clear break above that area could create some upside pressure testing 122.59 but only a clear break above 122.59 could end the current bearish correction phase.

[m.youssif]

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but closed significantly higher at 121.33 after found a good support around 119.30. This fact keeps us in sideways outlook from h4 chart point of view, indicates consolidation phase but still within a context of major bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 120.20. A clear break below that area would change the intraday bias to bearish retesting 119.30. Immediate resistance remains around 121.20/40. A clear break above that area could create some upside pressure testing 122.59 but only a clear break above 122.59 could end the current bearish correction phase.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 135.27 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 136.93. The pair was traded lower at the time I wrote this comment around 135.90, change my intraday bias back to bearish still targeting 135.00. Overall price still trapped in range area of 139.67 – 135.00 and a clear break below 135.00 would lead us to a new bearish outlook at least testing 133.50. On the upside, immediate resistance at 136.30. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 137.00/50 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 135.27 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 136.93. The pair was traded lower at the time I wrote this comment around 135.90, change my intraday bias back to bearish still targeting 135.00. Overall price still trapped in range area of 139.67 – 135.00 and a clear break below 135.00 would lead us to a new bearish outlook at least testing 133.50. On the upside, immediate resistance at 136.30. A clear break above that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 137.00/50 resistance area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0549 and closed at 1.0543. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0581. A clear break above that area could trigger further upside momentum targeting new all time high projection around 1.0700. However, as you can see on my h1 chart below, the rising wedge formation is still a threat to the current bullish outlook. A clear break below the wedge and 1.0500 – 1.0450 support area could trigger downside pullback testing 1.0330 area.

[m.youssif]

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0549 and closed at 1.0543. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0581. A clear break above that area could trigger further upside momentum targeting new all time high projection around 1.0700. However, as you can see on my h1 chart below, the rising wedge formation is still a threat to the current bullish outlook. A clear break below the wedge and 1.0500 – 1.0450 support area could trigger downside pullback testing 1.0330 area.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.4159. But even in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.4159. But even in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.4281 resistance firstly confirms that whole medium term rebound from 1.1875 has resumed. Further rise should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Also, note that current development also affirms the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. The pair is still bounded in established range below 1.6426 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidation could be seen but even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. The pair is still bounded in established range below 1.6426 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidation could be seen but even in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.5935 to 1.6426 at 1.6181 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.6426 should extend rise from 1.5935 towards 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. However, sustained break of 1.6181 will turn focus back to 1.5935 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4230 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation and with 1.5935 support intact, such rise could still continue for 1.7043 resistance. But after all, strong resistance should be seen between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.4230 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption and will turn focus to 1.3503 low for confirmation.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited around 4 hours 55 EMA and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited around 4 hours 55 EMA and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level will target 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD is staying in range below 1.0581 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall could be seen but we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.0287 support and bring another rise. Above 1.0581 will target target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD is staying in range below 1.0581 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall could be seen but we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.0287 support and bring another rise. Above 1.0581 will target target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CAD's outlook as consolidations from 0.9525 continues. Stronger recovery could be seen to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

No change in USD/CAD's outlook as consolidations from 0.9525 continues. Stronger recovery could be seen to 0.9666 support turned resistance. But upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pullback from 85.51 is still in progress and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for further fall. But still, downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pullback from 85.51 is still in progress and intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for further fall. But still, downside is expected to be contained above 81.97 support and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 85.51 resistance. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.24) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.