تحليل فوركس فني يومي لخمسة أزواج

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.4519 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But even in case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.4519 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But even in case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, whole rise from 1.1875 is still in progress and should be targeting 1.5143 resistance and then 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.418 from 1.2873 at 1.5279. Current development also affirms the case that medium term correction from 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Decisive break of 1.5279 projection target will indicate that rise from 1.1875 is developing into an impulsive wave that should take out 1.6039 high eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3860 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 extended further to as low as 1.2843 last week before making a temporary low there and recovered. The development indicates that rise from 1.2432 is completed at 1.3234 already. Hence, while some sideway trading might be seen initially this week, upside should be limited by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 extended further to as low as 1.2843 last week before making a temporary low there and recovered. The development indicates that rise from 1.2432 is completed at 1.3234 already. Hence, while some sideway trading might be seen initially this week, upside should be limited by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD pulled back and consolidate below 1.0581 high last week. The pair drew some support from 4 hours 55 EMA and recovered but upside was still limited below 1.0581 resistance. Hence, initial bias will remain neutral this week and more consolidations could still be seen. Below 1.0465 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0388 and below. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

AUD/USD pulled back and consolidate below 1.0581 high last week. The pair drew some support from 4 hours 55 EMA and recovered but upside was still limited below 1.0581 resistance. Hence, initial bias will remain neutral this week and more consolidations could still be seen. Below 1.0465 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0388 and below. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 1.0287 support and bring rally resumption eventually. On the upside above 1.0581 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 next. However, break of 1.0287 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0581 at 1.0039 instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 is still in progress and would extend further. Daily MACD's strong rise suggests that the up trend is regaining momentum again. Current rally could target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. On the downside, break of 0.9704 support in needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) is still in progress and would possibly target 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continued to consolidate above 0.9525 short term bottom last week and touched 0.9666 support turned resistance as expected. Initial bias remains neutral and some more consolidations might be seen. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/CAD continued to consolidate above 0.9525 short term bottom last week and touched 0.9666 support turned resistance as expected. Initial bias remains neutral and some more consolidations might be seen. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.9750 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9525 at 0.9749) and bring down trend resumption. Below 0.9525 will target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 2009 high of 1.3063 is still in progress and has just resumed. Daily MACD's break of it's trend line suggests that the down trend is possibly regaining momentum again. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9972 resistance holds and further fall would now be seen towards 0.9056 key support (2007 low). Though, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches this key support level.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extend further last week and initial bias will remains mildly on the downside this week for deeper retreat. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

USD/JPY's pull back from 85.51 extend further last week and initial bias will remains mildly on the downside this week for deeper retreat. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 81.97 (38.2% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 82.03) and bring rally resumption. Above 84.42 will flip bias back to the upside for 85.51 and then 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 first. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that long term down trend from 124.13 has completed at 76.40 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.17) will confirm this case and target 94.97 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 76.40) and above. On the downside, break of 80.50 support is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While current rebound in the USD/JPY is strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the current rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll trend current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally extended to as high as 0.8922 last week before making a temporary top there and retreated. While there is no acceleration in upside momentum, the cross managed to stay well inside near term rising channel. Thus, recent rally is still expected to continue. Above 0.8892 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. After all, break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/GBP's rally extended to as high as 0.8922 last week before making a temporary top there and retreated. While there is no acceleration in upside momentum, the cross managed to stay well inside near term rising channel. Thus, recent rally is still expected to continue. Above 0.8892 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. After all, break of 0.8713 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

In the bigger picture, the sustained break of medium term trend line resistance revived the case that correction from 0.9799 has finished with three waves downside to 0.8607 already. The long term up trend that started back in 2000 might be resuming. Further break of 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 will indicate that rise fro 0.8067 is likely developing into an impulsive wave and will further affirm this bullish case. EUR/GBP should then target a new high above 0.9799 then. On the downside, break of 0.8284 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 0.8067 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 extended further to as low as 1.2843 last week before making a temporary low there and recovered. The development indicates that rise from 1.2432 is completed at 1.3234 already. Hence, while some sideway trading might be seen initially this week, upside should be limited by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/CHF's fall from 1.3234 extended further to as low as 1.2843 last week before making a temporary low there and recovered. The development indicates that rise from 1.2432 is completed at 1.3234 already. Hence, while some sideway trading might be seen initially this week, upside should be limited by 1.3042 resistance and bring another fall to 1.2736. Break there will affirm the case that consolidations from 1.2401 has finished at 1.3234 too and the larger down trend is resuming for another low below 1.2401. Nevertheless, above 1.3053 minor support will delay the immediate bearish view and bring some more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6287 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3833 resistance holds. The current down trend would likely continue through 1.2 psychological level towards 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.2765 from 1.3833 at 1.1460, which is close to long term projection level at 1.1516. However, break of 1.3833 will confirm medium term bottoming and should bring strong rebound to 1.4315 resistance and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. Sustained trading below 1.3 psychological level will send the cross further lower to 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY edged higher to 123.31 last week but made a short term top there and retreated. With 122.15 minor resistance intact, initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for some more correction. But downside is expected to be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 122.15 minor resistance should flip bias back to the upside and bring rally resumption through 123.31 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.

[m.youssif]

EUR/JPY edged higher to 123.31 last week but made a short term top there and retreated. With 122.15 minor resistance intact, initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for some more correction. But downside is expected to be contained above 115.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 122.15 minor resistance should flip bias back to the upside and bring rally resumption through 123.31 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA continues to affirm the case of medium term reversal. That is, whole decline from 2008 high of 169.96 has completed with three waves down to 105.42 already. Current rise from 105.42 should extends towards 139.21 resistance (which is close to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 105.42 at 137.69) for confirmation. On the downside, break of 113.54 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. While the correction from 169.96 should have completed at 105.42 already, it's early to conclude up trend resumption yet and we'll look at the structure of the rise from 105.42 to determine the change of breaking 169.96 high in the current rally.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY pull back last week and reached as low as 135.25 before stabilizing around 4 hours 55 EMA. With 137.62 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could still be seen initially this week. But after all, downside is expected to be contained by above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 137.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[m.youssif]

GBP/JPY pull back last week and reached as low as 135.25 before stabilizing around 4 hours 55 EMA. With 137.62 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could still be seen initially this week. But after all, downside is expected to be contained by above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 137.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The break of medium term falling channel as well as 55 weeks EMA suggests that such decline has finished at 122.40 already. In other words, the third leg of the consolidation should have started and should target 163.05 and possibly above in medium term. On the downside, below 130.17 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll now stay bullish in the cross.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction/consolidation from 118.81, towards 100 psychological level.

[Raed]

الله يعطيك العافية على المجهود الطيب.
أتمنى أنتهج طريقة القمم والقيعان في التداول.

[Raed]

الله يعطيك العافية على المجهود الطيب.
أتمنى أنتهج طريقة القمم والقيعان في التداول.